GBP/JPY consolidates below 200.00; JPY strength and UK fiscal concerns cap the upside
- GBP/JPY struggles to gain any meaningful traction as modest JPY strength offsets GBP rebound.
- The initial reaction to a weaker Tokyo CPI print turns out to be short-lived amid a softer risk tone.
- Concerns about the UK’s fiscal situation and the BoE’s dovish tilt contribute to capping spot prices.
The GBP/JPY cross lacks any firm intraday directional bias on Friday and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses, below the 200.00 psychological mark through the Asian session amid mixed cues. A modest US Dollar (USD) pullback from a three-week high benefits the British Pound (GBP) and supports spot prices, though the emergence of some buying around the Japanese Yen (JPY) caps the upside.
Meanwhile, data released earlier today showed that consumer prices in Japan's capital city, Tokyo, rose less than expected in September. This comes on top of domestic political uncertainty and concerns about economic headwinds stemming from US tariffs, which could allow the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to delay raising interest rates. Nevertheless, investors are still pricing in the possibility of an imminent BoJ rate hike in October, which, along with a slight deterioration in the global risk sentiment, benefits the JPY's relative safe-haven assets.
Furthermore, the GBP bulls might refrain from placing aggressive bets amid concerns over the UK’s fiscal outlook ahead of the Autumn budget in November. Moreover, the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey's dovish remarks on Wednesday, saying that there will be further reductions in the bank rate, might keep a lid on the GBP. This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for an extension of the GBP/JPY pair's bounce from the vicinity of the 199.00 mark, or a two-week low touched on Monday.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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