S&P 500 price target raised at Oppenheimer after 'decisive' election results

Oppenheimer AM lifted its 2024 year-end price target for the S&P 500 from 5,900 to 6,200. This marks the third time this year the asset management firm has increased its price target for the index.

Today's move represents a 3.4% increase from the S&P 500's closing level of 5995 last Friday, November 8. The increase came despite Oppenheimer maintaining its earnings projection at $250.

The firm initially set a year-end target of 5,200 for the S&P 500 in December 11 of last year, with an earnings estimate of $240. By early March, the S&P 500 had surpassed this target, closing above 5,200, leading Oppenheimer to raise its target to 5,500 and increase its earnings forecast to $250 on March 25.

In July, after the index again exceeded expectations by closing above 5,500, the firm boosted its target to 5,900 but kept its earnings projection unchanged.

"Last week’s decisive election result removed an uncertainty hanging over markets for some months," John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer AM, wrote in a client note.

"US stocks staged a “sigh of relief” rally while gold prices eased from their record highs of October. The Fed’s 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday also boosted investor confidence."

Investors responded to the reduced uncertainty post-election by favoring cyclical sectors such as consumer discretionary, financials, industrials, and information technology, while defensive sectors lagged.

Oppenheimer advises investors to exercise patience and avoid hasty conclusions about the impact of the election on the markets.

"Beyond trader induced momentum intermediate and longer-term investor sentiment, significant levels of cash reported to still remain on the sidelines suggests to us that the current bull market has legs to run through the end of the year notwithstanding any catalyst that could bring about some near-term selling and profit-taking by bears, skeptics, and nervous investors always ready to find opportunity to sell “without FOMO” midst a bull market that has and continues to show considerable resilience in dealing with uncertainties that might emerge in its path," Stoltzfus added.

The research firm recommends a strategy of broad diversification, focusing on enduring cyclical and secular trends rather than speculative bets based on the recent election outcomes.