The US Dollar Index trades with some gains near 99.30 on investor caution.
Trump targets Fed as GDP disappoints and tariffs bite.
PCE inflation slows but remains sticky, keeping Fed watchers alert.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, hovered near 99.30 on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls and inflation data later in the week. A contraction in US Gross Domestic Product and conflicting inflation signals are keeping market participants on edge.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar awaits confirmation as economy stumbles
The United States economy contracted 0.30% in Q1 2025, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, missing expectations for 0.40% growth.
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.60% YoY in March, down from 3.00% in February, aligning with analyst forecasts.
Personal Income and Personal Spending rose 0.50% and 0.70%, respectively, in March, exceeding expectations and hinting at resilient consumption.
Private sector job creation slowed sharply to 62,000 in April, the ADP report showed, well below the 108,000 forecast.
President Donald Trump attacked Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell during a Detroit rally, claiming greater knowledge of interest rates.
Trump signed an executive order easing tariffs on car parts, aimed at reducing inflationary pressure on auto-related goods.
The broader market reaction to GDP and PCE data remained muted as the US Dollar Index held above 99.30.
The GDP Price Index rose 2.30% in Q1, below the 2.40% expected, highlighting tempered inflationary momentum across the economy.
Consumer uncertainty and tariff-related anxiety continue to weigh on hiring, according to comments by ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson.
Investors brace for Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM Manufacturing PMI, which could significantly impact Fed rate expectations.
Technical analysis: DXY remains range-bound on Wednesday
The DXY trades around 99.40, posting a modest 0.21% gain on the day while remaining range-bound between 99.14 and 99.56. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 37.42, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is shifting to a neutral-to-bullish bias. Still, downward pressure persists as the 20-day (100.55), 100-day (105.57), and 200-day (104.46) Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) all generate sell signals.
Bearish confirmation is reinforced by the 10-day (99.59) and 30-day (101.32) Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The Williams Percent Range (14) at -71.47 and the Stochastic RSI Fast (3, 3, 14, 14) at 79.79 remain in neutral zones. Support is seen at 99.28 and 99.19, while resistance stands at 99.59, 100.49, and 100.55.
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