EUR/USD softens to around 1.1325 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
The US economy shrank 0.3% in Q1, weaker than expected.
Inflation data from the largest nations of the Eurozone supports market expectations that the ECB could continue to cut rates.
The EUR/USD pair trades with mild losses near 1.1325 during the early Asian session on Thursday, pressured by renewed US Dollar (USD) demand. The US Dollar Index (DXY) advanced further and reached two-day highs around 99.70. Later on Thursday, the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report will be in the spotlight. Most markets will be closed on May 1 due to the Labour Day holiday.
Traders pulled back slightly from bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce its interest rates by a full percentage point this year after data showed the US economy contracted by an annualized 0.3% last quarter. Still, futures contracts see the Fed starting rate cuts in June, with a total of four quarter-point reductions expected, lowering the rate to the 3.25%-3.50% band by year-end.
Data released by the US Commerce Department on Thursday showed that the US economy contracted at an annualised rate of 0.3% in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025. This figure came in weaker than the 0.4% growth expected and down from the previous reading of a 2.4% expansion.
The report came ahead of the next uncertain steps for US President Donald Trump’s trade policy. On Wednesday, Trump said that the US economy will “take a while” to show the outcome of the current policies and blamed the stock market’s performance on former US President Joe Biden.
The US weekly Initial Jobless Claims are due later on Thursday, followed by the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. All eyes will be on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, which is expected to see 130,000 jobs added in the US economy in April. In case of a weaker-than-expected outcome, this could drag the Greenback lower and create a tailwind for EUR/USD.
Across the pond, traders have almost priced in a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in the June policy meeting. ECB officials have forecasted a further slowdown in inflation and economic growth in response to tariffs imposed by the US on its trade partners.
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