EUR/USD hangs near two-month low, seems vulnerable below mid-1.0900s ahead of US CPI
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EUR/USD struggles to attract any meaningful buyers amid a bullish USD.
The fundamental backdrop seems tilted firmly in favor of bearish traders.
Investors await the release of the US CPI report before placing fresh bets.
The EUR/USD pair oscillates in a narrow band below mid-1.0900s during the Asian session on Thursday and consolidates the recent heavy losses to a nearly two-month low touched the previous day.
The US Dollar (USD) stands tall near its highest level since August 16 as traders have priced out the possibility of another 50 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. Moreover, the current market pricing indicates over a 20% chance that the US central bank will keep rates on hold next month and the expectations were reaffirmed by hawkish FOMC minutes released on Wednesday. This keeps the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond elevated above the 4% threshold, which should underpin the buck and act as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair.
The shared currency, on the other hand, continues to be weighed down by growing acceptance that the European Central Bank (ECB) will lower borrowing costs by 25 bps at each of the two policy meetings by the year-end. Moreover, the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East should benefit the safe-haven Greenback and suggest that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair is to the downside. Traders, however, might refrain from placing fresh bearish bets and prefer to wait for the latest US inflation figures before positioning for a further depreciating move.
The crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due for release later during the North American session this Thursday and will be followed by the US Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday. The data will play a key role in influencing expectations about the Fed's rate-cut path, which, in turn, will drive the USD demand in the near term and provide a fresh directional impetus to the EUR/USD pair.
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