Can Rivian Beat Tesla in the Long Term?
Key Points
Rivian's stock is down about 20% year to date in a challenging EV environment.
While Rivian's automotive division is still in the red, its software and services segment is profitable.
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They're finally here. Deliveries of the much-anticipated Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) R2 fleet have begun, and so begins an extraordinarily important chapter for the electric vehicle (EV) maker. The R2 isn't just another model. With a starting price of less than $47,000, it's Rivian's push into the mainstream through a more affordable option.
The company's ability to challenge Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) dominance really hinges on the success and reception of the R2. Rivian's previous models are luxury-oriented, with price tags starting at over $70,000. They are highly rated by drivers, but because of their price point, they are out of reach for most.
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It hasn't been an easy year for EV makers. The federal EV tax credit was eliminated, and demand for EVs has subsided in the U.S. Several legacy automakers have also downsized or canceled EV-related plans. While the environment is challenging for Rivian, there is an opportunity to reinvigorate the EV market and capture additional market share, especially from dominant rival Tesla.
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Rivian's business model is divided into two segments: automotive and software and services. The automotive division is still posting heavy losses, but software and services are profitable. Rivian's total revenue for the first quarter of 2026 reached $1.38 billion, an 11% increase from the year prior. The company's stock has decreased by about 20% in 2026 as of this writing.
Tesla still dominates Rivian in terms of market share. Combined, Tesla and China's BYD account for about 25% of all EVs worldwide. Rivian has a very long way to go to overtake Tesla in the U.S. and then compete globally, but the first step is through the success and growing popularity of the affordable R2.
If this fleet is a hit among mainstream drivers in the U.S., it'll help Rivian gain important ground in the U.S. I wouldn't count on Tesla being dethroned for several more years, however.
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Catie Hogan has positions in Rivian Automotive. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends BYD Company. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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