Silver Price is Down Nearly 50% from Record High, and This Trendline is the Last Defense
Silver (XAG) closed below its 200-day moving average on June 9 for the first time since April 2025. Silver price now trades near $64 after falling about 47% from its January all-time high (ATH) of $121.75.
The breakdown removes a trend support that held through the entire bull cycle. However, a four-year trendline in the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching its fifth test.
Silver Loses the 200-Day Moving Average for the First Time Since April 2025
Silver closed below the 200-day moving average on June 9 and extended the decline a day later. The price printed a low at $61.50 on June 11 before a modest bounce to around $64.
The previous close below this average came on April 4, 2025. Back then, silver spent only three days under the line before reclaiming it. The current breakdown looks different because it follows a 47% drawdown rather than a brief pause in an uptrend.
Sellers also took out the support near $69, which aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the rally from $36.20 to $121.75. An earlier BeInCrypto analysis had already flagged the risk of a slide to $63.
The next major support sits near $54.50, at the 0.786 Fibonacci level. Below that, the $50 area marks strong long-term support and the previous record high. Meanwhile, the 0.382 Fibonacci level near $89 remains the key resistance.
A 4-Year RSI Trendline Faces Its Fifth Test
The bearish price structure has one important counterweight. The daily RSI has been trading above an ascending trendline since May 2022.
The line has already produced four bounces (blue circles) in May 2022, March 2023, October 2023, and April 2025. Notably, the April 2025 touch coincided with silver’s quick recovery above the 200-day moving average.
The indicator now reads near 30 and approaches the trendline for the fifth time. A bounce here could reset momentum and fuel a counter-trend rally. In contrast, a clean break would end the four-year pattern and confirm that bearish momentum dominates.
The signal carries extra weight because a May prediction from BeInCrypto already warned of further losses once key supports failed.
Silver Price Prediction as Precious Metals Sentiment Turns Capitulatory
The drawdown extends across precious metals. Trader BullTheoryio estimated the combined damage in a post on X.
“BREAKING: Over $12.95 trillion has been wiped out from gold and silver in just 132 days. Gold has crashed -26.50% from its January peak… Silver is down -47.69%, wiping out $3.2 TRILLION.”
According to the same post, the selloff happened while the Iran conflict stayed active, oil traded near $90, and inflation remained elevated. These are conditions that have historically favored metals, which makes the decline more striking.
Mockery from Bitcoin circles adds a final signal of sentiment. On-chain analyst Checkmatey ridiculed the crash with a satirical post about Jane Street using a quantum computer to mine asteroids and inflate the supply of metal to infinity.
Such open derision of an asset class often clusters near capitulation phases, though it offers no timing guarantee.
If the RSI trendline holds, the silver price could attempt a recovery to the broken $69 area. A reclaim of that zone would open the way to the 0.5 Fibonacci level near $79. Only a move above the $89 resistance would invalidate the broader bearish structure, a scenario explored in a recent outlook on physical market tightness.
If the trendline breaks, the path opens to $54.50, then to $50. Silver’s fate now rests on a single momentum line that has not failed in four years.
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