USD: Payroll growth seen normalizing – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists expects the April US Nonfarm Payrolls report to show a normalization in job gains, forecasting an 80k headline increase versus 65k consensus. They see healthcare leading sectoral gains and anticipate the unemployment rate (UE) holding at 4.3%. Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) are projected to remain modest at 0.2% month-on-month, or 3.7% year-on-year.

Moderate payroll gains and soft wages

"We expect headline payrolls to show a normalization in job gains at 80k, with 85k private and -5k government (cons: 65k)."

"The sectoral makeup will likely be similar to last year, with job gains largely supported by healthcare."

"We also look for the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% in April, continuing its signal of labor market stabilization (cons: 4.3%)."

"The unrounded UE rate will likely edge higher."

"We expect AHE remained modest at 0.2% m/m (cons: 0.3%), translating to 3.7% y/y."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)