Ethereum Flashes Same Signal That Triggered June’s Rebound

Ethereum (ETH) saw roughly 169,770 coins leave exchanges on net, per Santiment. That marked its largest outflow day in over 4 months, a pattern last seen just before June’s rebound.

Fewer coins on exchanges usually means less supply ready for sellers. However, US spot Ethereum funds have bled $1.18 billion in October, so buyers have yet to follow.

Santiment Points Back to Ethereum’s June 5 Rebound

Santiment linked the latest spike to June 5, when about 223,800 ETH left exchanges. That day, ETH sank to its lowest price since April 2025.

That outflow marked a local buy point, with the price recovering quickly. Still, the firm cautioned that history does not guarantee a repeat.

Ethereum exchange net inflow/outflow chart, Source: X/Santiment

If large outflows continue while ETH holds current levels, the firm said supply would increasingly favor buyers. However, fund data suggests many buyers are still waiting. 

ETF Money and US Buyers Keep Their Distance

US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net outflows on 14 of 16 trading days in October, perSoSoValue.

Those withdrawals totaled $1.18 billion through October 22. Over the same stretch, total net assets slipped to $14.57 billion, the lowest since August 21.

Ethereum spot ETF daily net flows, Source: SoSoValue

Coinbase buyers look equally hesitant. CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium Index read -0.134 after sliding through most of October. 

A negative reading means ETH trades lower on Coinbase than on Binance, often read as weaker US demand. 

Ethereum Coinbase Premium Index, Source: CryptoQuant

Exchange-wide cash has thinned too. BeInCrypto reported that stablecoin reserves on major exchanges have drained since April, leaving less fresh money to buy dips.

That gap between tightening supply and hesitant demand leaves analysts divided on where ETH settles. 

Where Analysts Expect Ethereum to Find Its Footing

ETH traded at $2,377.29 at press time, down 1.03% over the past 24 hours. That leaves it just below $2,400, which Santiment called the immediate pivot.

Ethereum price performance, Source: BeInCrypto Markets

A sustained reclaim of $2,500 would strengthen the bottoming case, according to the firm. Losing about $2,330 would weaken it.

Analyst Ted Pillows sets a slightly higher bar for a trend change.

$ETH tapped the $2,350-$$2,360 support zone and is now bouncing back.Overall momentum is still weak for Ethereum and it won't change until it reclaims $2,550. pic.twitter.com/5vrQrP8PkZ

— Ted (@TedPillows) October 23, 2026

Michaël van de Poppe, meanwhile, looks below Santiment’s $2,330 line for an entry. He expects new highs once the correction ends.

“I’d be max bidding everything beneath $2,300 as then I think that we’ll reverse quite quickly,” the analyst said.

Meanwhile, analyst Ash Crypto pointed to a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern forming on the weekly chart. He added that the upside could be significant if the setup plays out.

If outflows continue while ETH holds above $2,330, the June comparison may stay alive. A break lower would put van de Poppe’s sub-$2,300 zone in play.