Bitcoin Price Erases Two-Day Gains After $85,000 Rejection: Will it Fall to $80,000?
The Bitcoin price has erased its two-day gains after a rejection near $85,000. Bitcoin (BTC) slid about 4% to an intraday low of $81,652 on Bybit.
On-chain data and price charts now point to $80,000 as the next key test. Absent buyers and fading momentum could make that level decisive.
Bitcoin Treasuries Sit Near Breakeven but Stopped Buying
Corporate Bitcoin treasuries hold BTC at an average cost basis of about $80,000, according to Glassnode. The price has closed above that level since September 18.
However, treasury buying has not returned. Monthly net purchases have shrunk to a few thousand BTC, far below the 2025 peaks.
Glassnode notes that buying in profit can feed on itself. Purchases lift the price, which lifts their shares and funds more purchases. That loop has not restarted.
BTC treasury companies are in profit but barely buying.They hold $BTC at a cost basis of about $80K, and price has closed above it since September 18.In profit, buying can feed on itself: purchases lift price, price lifts their shares, and their shares fund more purchases. https://t.co/qcFvRu88Xs pic.twitter.com/jOtlUBEVWy
— glassnode (@glassnode) October 21, 2026
Meanwhile, exchange stablecoin reserves have fallen to a one-year low, draining fresh buying power from the market.
A drop below $80,000 would push treasuries back underwater. In mid-2022, a similar stretch below cost basis brought one of the only notable net sales on Glassnode’s chart.
Short-Term Holders Offer a Deeper Cushion
Recent buyers paint a calmer picture. The short-term holder (STH) realized price stood at $74,850 on October 21, per Glassnode.
This metric tracks the average cost basis of recently acquired coins. With BTC near $82,000, these holders remain about 9% in profit.
Historically, this line capped the price through most of 2026. BTC was rejected there in May and sank below $60,000 by early July.
Bitcoin reclaimed the level in late August. Holding above it keeps the recovery structure intact.
Bitcoin Price Must Hold $81,500 to Avoid an $80,000 Test
Analyst Ted Pillows noted that the weekly candle turned red after BTC failed to hold $84,500. Still, he said buyers have not lost control, as Bitcoin holds above its 50-day averages.
$BTC weekly candle has turned red.Bitcoin failed to hold above $84,500 and has completely erased its last two days' gains.The good thing is Bitcoin is still holding above the 50D SMA and 50D EMA, which means buyers haven't completely lost control. pic.twitter.com/5R0ZOGIdpk
— Ted (@TedPillows) October 22, 2026
On the daily chart, BTC is testing the 50-day moving average at $81,835. It has also slipped just below the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $82,614.
The 4-hour chart shows five consecutive red candles after a failed breakout above $84,000. The drop returned BTC to an ascending trendline from the October 15 low.
That trendline now meets the $81,500 swing low, forming the nearest support cluster.
Momentum is weakening. The 4-hour RSI sits near 45 and is breaking a rising trendline in place since October 8.
However, volume on the decline remains lower than during the recent rally. That suggests a lack of bids rather than aggressive selling.
If $81,500 fails, the $80,000 treasury cost basis comes into play. Below that, the 0.5 Fibonacci level sits at $77,876.
The $73,000 to $75,000 zone holds the 0.382 Fibonacci level and the STH cost basis. That confluence could offer deeper support if the correction extends.
On the upside, reclaiming $84,000 would reopen the path toward the $85,000 to $87,000 resistance zone.
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