BitMine Stock Faces Risk as Tom Lee Cools on Ethereum Buying

BMNR stock price trades at $22.00 after a 4% drop on May 7, sliding alongside the broader crypto-treasury complex as chairman Tom Lee signaled BitMine may slow its Ethereum accumulation pace.

The stock sits within an ascending channel that appears bullish on the surface, but multiple flow and positioning signals suggest a deeper test is ahead.

BMNR Stock Price Holds an Ascending Channel After a 59% Drop

BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) traded at $22.00 on May 7, down 3.97%. Chairman Tom Lee said at Consensus Miami that the company may slow its Ethereum (ETH) purchases as it nears its 5% supply target. BitMine currently holds 5.18 million ETH, roughly 4.29% of the circulating supply.

The slowdown signal hit a stock that was already structurally weak. BMNR is down 46% over the past six months. The share price sits 86% below its 52-week high of $161 set in mid-2025.

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The daily chart shows an ascending channel forming since early February. The pattern emerged after a 59.14% drop from the December 10 high of $42.03. Channels that form after sharp declines often act as continuation patterns rather than reversal structures. They tend to resolve in the direction of the prior trend, which in this case is down.

Tom Lee also pointed to BitMine’s $4 billion share repurchase program as an alternative use of capital. Capital may rotate away from ETH and toward buybacks, weakening the ETH treasury narrative that has supported BMNR’s premium.

That structural backdrop sets the stage for the technical signals.

EMAs Are the Last Line of Defense

Inside the ascending channel, BMNR is grappling with two exponential moving averages (EMAs). EMAs are trend indicators that give weight to recent price action, with shorter EMAs tracking near-term momentum.

The 20-day EMA sits at $21.92 and the 50-day at $22.17. With BMNR at $22.00, the stock is wedged directly between them, a tight zone where the next move is binary.

History suggests the 20-day matters most. Each prior break of the 20-day EMA in 2026 has produced a sharp correction. On April 27, BMNR dropped 6.48% in one session after losing the 20-day. On March 25, the same break delivered a 15.62% slide.

If the 20-day EMA at $21.92 breaks again, the same cascade pattern is likely. The 100-day EMA at $24.80 and the 200-day EMA at $27.06 sit well above the current price. Both cap any rally attempt and reinforce the longer-term bearish lean.

CMF Divergence and Put-Call Ratio Flag Smart Money Caution

While retail traders may read the ascending channel as bullish, the flow data tells a different story. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is showing weakness despite the higher prices. CMF measures money flow volume to gauge buying or selling pressure over a set period.

CMF currently reads 0.03, technically still above zero. The indicator has, however, broken its own ascending trendline that connected the lows since late March.

Also, between April 29 and May 6, BMNR’s price trended higher while CMF trended lower. That bearish divergence suggests institutional buying pressure is fading even as price holds.

Options positioning adds another layer. The put-call ratio, a sentiment gauge that compares put contracts to call contracts, has shifted in a contradictory way. The volume put-call ratio dropped from 0.38 on April 29 to 0.29 on May 7. The shift indicates more long positions are being placed.

Open interest tells a quieter story. The OI put-call ratio drifted lower from 0.44 to 0.42 in the same window. Retail is adding fresh long bets while existing positions are being closed. That mix often precedes a long squeeze if the stock breaks lower, adding another layer of risk.

BMNR Stock Price Levels Set Up a 9% Move Either Way

With structure, EMAs, CMF, and options positioning all pointing in one direction, the price ladder reveals what each scenario unlocks.

The bullish path requires BMNR to first reclaim $22.47. That level sits just above the 50-day EMA. A clean reclaim signals the stock is comfortably above its moving averages. The next test is $24.09, the 0 Fibonacci anchor at the upper trendline.

A break above the $24 zone represents 9.57% upside from the current price and would weaken the continuation thesis.

The bearish path is more layered. Below the EMA support at $21.92, BMNR opens at $21.47 and $20.65 as immediate floors. The most critical downside level is $19.84, the 0.618 Fibonacci level. A daily close below $19.84 marks a 9.75% drop from the current price and confirms the bearish structure.

Below $19.84, the path opens to $18.69 and $17.22. The longer-range extension at $12.96 (1.618 Fibonacci) becomes a deep continuation target if the entire ascending channel breaks down.