Bitcoin Price Forecast: Renewed ETF inflows send BTC above $71,000, offsetting war uncertainty

• Bitcoin price rises by 5%, near the upper boundary of the recent consolidation range.
• US-listed spot ETFs recorded an inflow of $225 million on Tuesday, marking the second consecutive day of positive flows this week.
• Traders should be cautious as a prolonged US-Iran war could keep Oil prices high, further increasing global inflationary pressures.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in the green, above $71,000 at the time of writing on Wednesday, approaching a key resistance zone where a breakout could signal further gains. Institutional demand remains robust, supporting the Crypto King’s price, as spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded their second consecutive day of positive flows this week. However, market participants should be cautious as a prolonged US-Iran war could keep a lid on BTC gains.

Institutional demand supports BTC 

Institutional demand has remained robust so far this week despite the ongoing US-Iran war, which began over the weekend. SoSoValue data show that the spot Bitcoin ETF recorded inflows of $225.15 million on Tuesday, marking the second consecutive day of positive flows this week, following a positive weekly inflow last week. If these inflows continue and intensify, BTC could see a recovery in the upcoming days.

Geopolitical tensions could overshadow economic data

The US economic calendar screenshot below shows that Wednesday's main releases will be the ADP Employment Change data for February, and February Services Purchasing Managers’ Index numbers published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

However, these economic figures may have a limited impact right now, as the market focus is centered on geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran,  which are driving broader risk sentiment.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Wednesday that they retain control of the Strait of Hormuz, which roughly controls the global 20% supply of Oil. As a result, Crude prices are trading above 2.5% as of Wednesday. 

If the ongoing war continues, it could trigger a further rally in Oil prices, increasing global inflationary pressures as transportation and production costs rise. A higher inflation environment will force the central banks to tighten the monetary policies, keeping liquidity constrained, which does not bode well for risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC on the verge of a breakout

Bitcoin price is nearing the upper boundary of the consolidation range around $72,000 as of writing on Wednesday. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as the price challenges this resistance zone, attempting to break a sequence of lower highs. 

The Crypto King is below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $74,400 and the 100-day near $81,900, keeping the broader context corrective but with an improving short-term tone as spot reclaims ground within the channel. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart at 54 is rising above the 50 line, suggesting strengthening upside momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stands above its signal line and is moving into positive territory, with an expanding positive histogram that reinforce building bullish pressure against the channel cap.

Immediate resistance is located at the channel top around $71,980, where a daily close above would open the way toward the 50-day EMA zone near $74,400, followed by the psychological $80,000 area ahead of the distant 100-day EMA around $81,900. 

On the downside, initial support lies at the lower boundary of the channel near $65,100, with further protection at the horizontal $60,000 level. 

A break back below $65,100 would weaken the current bullish attempt and expose the $60,000 floor, while holding above this channel support keeps the focus on an eventual topside break.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)