Natural Gas: Higher winter curve and risk ranges – Rabobank

RaboResearch raises its TTF forecasts to €72/MWh for Q4 2026 and €58/MWh for Q1 2027, citing prolonged Hormuz disruptions, low European storage and greater LNG dependence. The bank still sees prices easing to the mid-€40s in 2027, but warns that further infrastructure curtailments could lift TTF into the €50–60/MWh range for much of next year.

European gas lifted by supply risks

"We are raising our Q4 2026 TTF price forecast to €72/MWh to reflect a prolonged disruption to Hormuz flows and a slower recovery of Qatari LNG supply than initially expected."

"That means gas prices will remain elevated this winter and into 2027, as low storage levels will have to be replenished at a faster rate next year."

"For 2027 as a whole, we continue to forecast European gas prices in the mid-€40s and JKM at around $15/MMBtu."

"As explained in our last energy report, only further infrastructure curtailments that delay the recovery in gas flows would lift TTF into the €50–60/MWh range for much of next year."

“At the time of the incident, it was unclear which energy facility in the region had been targeted or whether any damage had been done to Russia’s Yamal LNG terminal.”

"Lasting damage to this facility, similar to the damage inflicted on Qatar’s Ras Laffan terminal earlier this year, would drive TTF and JKM gas markets back into price ranges last seen in 2022."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)