Applied Digital vs. TeraWulf: Which Neocloud Stock Is the Better Buy?

Access to sufficient computing power has become a major constraint for artificial intelligence systems. This explains why hyperscalers are not just rushing to build their own data centers, but also sealing long-term deals for more compute with neocloud companies like Applied Digital (NASDAQ: APLD) and TeraWulf (NASDAQ: WULF).

TeraWulf made the news recently for the 20-year, $19 billion deal it just inked with Anthropic. That agreement covers 401 megawatts of critical IT load, which will become available in waves. The full 401 megawatts should be online by early 2028.

That announcement earned TeraWulf a price target adjustment from Morgan Stanley's analyst, who bumped it to a Street-high $72. That implies that the stock will more than triple from current levels in the next 12 months. It isn't just good news for TeraWulf. It points to broader tailwinds that will also lift Applied Digital.

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Understanding gigawatt pipelines

When a deal like the Anthropic one is announced, it doesn't translate into immediate revenue. Neocloud companies are investing heavily into building AI data centers and have multiple construction projects underway. That's why the full 401 megawatts that the AI giant is contracting for won't be available until early 2028.

Applied Digital touted in an investor presentation that it has 3 gigawatts of active pipeline projects, while TeraWulf only has 2.3 gigawatts in its portfolio. Securing more gigawatts of electricity to power future data centers increases a company's earnings potential, so Applied Digital has the edge in that regard.

However, anytime a company adds a new data center site, it isn't small. Those sites often have hundreds of megawatts. TeraWulf or Applied Digital can suddenly come out with an announcement saying that they got another AI data center site, which can either close or expand the gap by a meaningful margin. When it comes to the quantity of gigawatts, Applied Digital is currently ahead, and that gives them a higher ceiling.

TeraWulf owns its power

Although TeraWulf has fewer AI data centers, it does have an edge over Applied Digital when it comes to power. TeraWulf makes it a point to own its power, while Applied Digital signs long-term electricity supply agreements with utility companies.

Applied Digital's approach is cheaper right now and lets it complete AI data centers sooner. It also requires its customers to bring their own AI chips and servers, while TeraWulf provides computing hardware in its facilities. These differences make it easier for Applied Digital to realize more revenue at a faster rate, but its business model also makes it dependent on the electric grid. Requiring customers to bring their own hardware also lowers how much Applied Digital can charge for each megawatt of critical IT load.

An overstrained electric grid can cause issues, and when Applied Digital renegotiates utility leases when they expire, the company may have to pay much higher prices. That scenario is especially possible as a growing number of AI data centers will be competing for the same power supply.

TeraWulf develops on-site power generation assets at its data centers. This strategy means it takes a little longer for its data centers to be completed, but it also ensures that TeraWulf won't have to rely on the power grid. It incurs higher costs now for more control over future costs and power availability. In the long run, it is much better to own power generation capacity than to lease it.

The contracts with hyperscalers

TeraWulf has 923 megawatts of critical IT load contracted to clients. Anthropic makes up almost half of that total. TeraWulf is aiming to support 250 megawatts to 500 megawatts of additional critical IT load signings per year, which could result in meaningful net operating income growth once the sites are fully developed.

TeraWulf is targeting an 85% net operating income margin on contracts, showing that profits can scale quickly as well.

Applied Digital has 1.41 gigawatts of contracted critical IT load. Once again, Applied Digital has a slight edge, but a single announcement from either of these companies can meaningfully close or expand the gap. For instance, TeraWulf's contracted critical IT load jumped from 522 megawatts to 923 megawatts on a single Anthropic deal.

Applied Digital also signs long-term deals with tech giants. The company recently secured a 15-year take-or-pay lease with an unnamed, high investment-grade hyperscaler that is based in the U.S.

The deal covers 210 megawatts of critical IT load for approximately $5.2 billion over 15 years. The contract's value can reach $12.7 billion if all renewable options are exercised over a 30-year term.

Applied Digital has an edge when it comes to total gigawatts and contracted critical IT load. However, a single deal from TeraWulf could close these gaps. The main advantage of TeraWulf is that it owns its power, which could matter a lot in the years ahead.

Marc Guberti has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.