Week Ahead: US June CPI, PPI Reports Arrive. US Stock Q2 Earnings Season Officially Kicks Off as JPMorgan, Netflix, TSMC Report

TradingKey - In the coming week, global markets will welcome the first true "Super Week" of the second half of the year. A dense lineup of key US inflation and consumption data, including June CPI, PPI, and retail sales, will be released, directly influencing expectations for the Federal Reserve's late-July interest rate meeting. Meanwhile, the US Q2 earnings season will officially kick off, with major banks led by JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ), Goldman Sachs ( GS ), Citigroup ( C ), Bank of America ( BAC) being the first to report. Tech giants like ASML ( ASML ), TSMC ( TSM ), Netflix ( NFLX) will also report earnings in succession, providing the latest bellwether for the AI industry chain and the global tech sector.

Major Event Preview

US June CPI and PPI to be released back-to-back as market enters "inflation week"

Following the release of June nonfarm payrolls, market focus has shifted back to inflation.

On Tuesday (July 14), the US will release the June Consumer Price Index (CPI); on Wednesday (July 15), the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released; and on Thursday (July 16), the June retail sales data will be announced. Together, these three data points will shape market expectations regarding the FOMC meeting at the end of July and the trajectory of rate cuts (or maintaining high interest rates) for the rest of the year.

If CPI continues to exceed expectations, Treasury yields and the US dollar may continue to strengthen; if inflation shows a clear cooling, growth and tech stocks are expected to regain investor favor.

Fed Chair Warsh to testify before Congress, with eyes on latest policy remarks

On the day the US June CPI is released, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is expected to deliver his semi-annual monetary policy testimony before Congress.

This will mark Warsh's first appearance before Congress since the June interest rate meeting to testify on the US economy, inflation, and monetary policy outlook. Investors will focus closely on whether he signals any new clues regarding the late-July meeting and policy direction for the second half of the year.

US Q2 earnings season officially kicks off, with major banks leading the way

As the second-quarter earnings season gets underway, major US banks will be the first to report their results.

On July 14, Wall Street financial institutions including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Bank of America will release their earnings, providing a key reference for the market to assess corporate profitability, loan demand, capital markets activity, and the state of consumer finance.

Subsequently, AI supply chain leader ASML (July 15), TSMC (July 16), and streaming giant Netflix (July 16) will also report their results. The market will focus closely on whether AI capital expenditure remains robust, as well as companies' demand outlooks for the second half of the year.

China to release Q2 GDP and a suite of macroeconomic data

On Wednesday (July 15), China will release a suite of major economic indicators, including second-quarter GDP, June industrial production, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment.

These data points will serve as a key window into the strength of China's economic recovery, and will also influence global commodities, resources, and sentiment across Asian markets.

Key Events for the Week

Monday (July 13)

Keywords: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

OPEC will release its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). The market will focus on changes in member countries' production, global crude demand growth forecasts, and the latest assessment of the supply-demand balance for the second half of the year. Any adjustments to demand forecasts or signals regarding production hikes or cuts in the report could impact international oil prices and the energy sector.

Tuesday (July 14)

Keywords: US CPI, Fed Chair's Congressional Testimony, Major Bank Earnings

The US will release CPI and core CPI data for June, alongside real earnings data.

Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will deliver his semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress. Fed Chairman Warsh will attend a hearing of the House Financial Services Committee on the 'Federal Reserve's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report'.

On the corporate front, major banks including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Bank of America will report their second-quarter earnings, officially kicking off the US earnings season.

Wednesday (July 15)

Keywords: China GDP, US PPI, US EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Permanent Voting Member Speech, ASML Earnings

China will release its second-quarter GDP, along with a series of major economic indicators for June, including industrial production, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment.

The US will release June PPI data and weekly EIA crude oil inventories. Investors will evaluate energy price trends and future inflationary pressures by analyzing changes in both inflation and inventory levels.

The Bank of Canada will announce its latest interest rate decision, with investors focusing on its updated guidance on economic growth, the inflation outlook, and the future policy path.

On the Fed front, Williams, a permanent FOMC voting member and President of the New York Fed, will deliver a speech. His remarks on interest rate policy and the economic outlook will also be closely watched by the market.

Global lithography leader ASML will report its second-quarter earnings. The market will focus on orders for advanced process equipment, AI chip-related capital expenditure, and management's latest outlook on the semiconductor industry's health.

Thursday (July 16)

Keywords: US Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, 2028 FOMC Voting Member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem's Speech, TSMC, Netflix Earnings

The US will release June retail sales, weekly initial jobless claims, and business inventories, providing further insight into US consumer resilience and labor market conditions.

On the Fed front, Musalem, a 2028 FOMC voting member and President of the St. Louis Fed, will speak. The market will focus on his latest views on the economic and monetary policy outlook.

In the Asian tech sector, TSMC will report its second-quarter earnings. Investors will closely watch advanced node capacity utilization, AI chip demand, and full-year capital expenditure guidance, which will provide key signals for the global semiconductor cycle.

After the US market close, Netflix will report its second-quarter results. The market will focus on subscriber growth, advertising business progress, content spending, and profitability performance.

Friday (July 17)

Keywords: US Consumer Sentiment, Housing Data, 2026 FOMC Voting Member and Dallas Fed President Logan's Speech, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson's Speech

The US will release the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for July, alongside several economic indicators for June, including housing starts, building permits, industrial production, and import/export price indices.

On the Fed front, Logan, a 2026 FOMC voting member and President of the Dallas Fed, and Fed Vice Chair Jefferson will deliver separate speeches. The market will continue to look for policy clues regarding inflation, employment, and the future path of interest rates.