Euro: Downside risks persist against US Dollar - Societe Generale

Societe Generale strategists note that EUR/USD remains near the lower end of its recent trading range following the Fed’s decision to hold rates at 3.75%-4.00%. Technical levels highlight support at 1.1110 and resistance at 1.1225, with a downside break potentially exposing 1.1065 and 1.0950/1.0880. They expect US PCE inflation to have a greater impact on EUR/USD than the ECB press conference.

Key levels and data-dependent risks

"The 2y UST yield retraced below 4.70% and gave EUR/USD a bit more breathing space after threatening new 2026 lows earlier in the day."

"EUR/USD has evolved within a narrow range recently and is in vicinity to the lower boundary at 1.1110. Signals of a large rebound are not yet visible."

"The high reached earlier this week at 1.1225 represents the first resistance. If the pair fails to overcome this hurdle, there is a risk of another downward leg. "

"A break below 1.1110 could extend the decline towards the May 2025 low of 1.1065 and projections near 1.0950/1.0880."

"For EUR/USD, the outcome of US PCE inflation should hold more sway over the ECB press conference."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)