EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bears await 1.1115-1.1110 support break as focus remains on ECB

• EUR/USD attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session amid a modest pickup in USD demand.
• France’s fiscal woes and political gridlock further weigh on the Euro ahead of the ECB meeting.
• Weakness below 1.1115-1.1110 should pave the way for deeper losses amid a bearish setup.

The EUR/USD pair meets with fresh supply during the Asian session on Thursday, stalling the previous day's modest recovery from the 1.1110 area, or its lowest level since May 2025 amid the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) buying. Spot prices, however, lack follow-through as traders opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of the key central bank event and crucial US economic releases.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to announce its policy decision later today and is expected to keep interest rates steady, while maintaining a hawkish bias toward a potential 25-basis-point (bps) hike in December. However, concerns about France’s deepening debt levels and political gridlock ahead of next year’s election might continue to undermine the shared currency. The USD, on the other hand, regains positive traction amid hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and geopolitical uncertainties, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair remains to the downside.

Even from a technical perspective, spot prices hold a bearish near-term bias below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the -hour chart. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 40.2 hints at still-lacklustre upside momentum despite a marginal improvement in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, whose line has turned slightly positive. This, in turn, validates the negative outlook, though bears might await a break below the 1.1115-1.1110 area before positioning for an extension of the well-established downtrend witnessed over the past two months or so.

On the topside, traders are likely to monitor intraday swings around 1.1140 for signs of either base-building or continuation of the bearish sequence. Meanwhile, any attempted recovery is more likely to confront initial resistance ahead of the 1.1200 round figure. This is followed by the 100-period EMA at 1.1215. Sustained strength above this level would be needed to ease the current downside pressure and allow for a more constructive recovery phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart