Bitcoin scarcity expected to grow as ancient whales' hoarded stockpile peaks

Wallets aged over 10 years are driving the scarcity of BTC. Each day, coins marked as long-term storage grow larger compared to newly mined Bitcoins. 

For the first time, BTC held in long-term supply is growing faster than the supply of newly mined coins. More and more wallets are crossing the 10-year mark with no coins moved, adding to the increasing scarcity of available Bitcoin. 

Satoshi Nakamoto is the original ancient whales

While initially intended as electronic cash for daily payments, Bitcoin has turned into a reserve asset. In the past decade, BTC also developed its strong ‘hodl’ ethic, leading to the creation of multiple whale wallets with no intention to sell or move coins. This idle supply was added to the coins held in early miner wallets, including those of Satoshi Nakamoto. 

Satoshi Nakamoto is the first big holder of wallets older than a decade. Soon after that, the supply of early miners also joined that cohort, reaching new peaks in 2025. Currently, over 566 BTC on average move into the ancient supply category, surpassing the newly mined 450 BTC per day. 

Over time, a peak 17% or roughly 3.5M coins of Bitcoin supply is now in the long-term holdings of ancient whales, which may not enter circulation again. Over time, the coins locked in ancient stockpiles will only increase. 

Some of the ancient wallets are relatively small. Currently, there are only 93 wallets with over 10K Bitcoins, as even whales are trying to secure their assets on multiple addresses. More than 2M wallets have over 1,000 BTC. 

Ancient BTC whales show long-term conviction

The ancient supply of BTC contains coins that are considered lost, forgotten, or unmovable for some reason. On very rare occasions, an old wallet will awaken and move or sell some of the coins. 

However, selling Bitcoins is seen as abandoning the long-term potential of the coin, especially at a time when corporate buyers are scrambling for a dwindling supply of BTC to be locked in treasuries. 

Bitcoin treasuries are newer, but also hold over 3.39M BTC, catching up with the ancient supply. Scarcity is also driven by other long-term cohorts, including wallets aged 7-10 years and those over five years old. 

Most of the flux of BTC holdings comes from the earliest wallet cohorts, created under three months ago, as well as from buyers realizing profits from the recent bull market. Some of the whale wallets are specifically engaging in trading, but the overall trend is for even more Bitcoin to become unavailable. 

Bitcoin daily transactions are at around 440K, near a 12-month low. Currently, on-chain activity is extremely subdued, while traders use the derivative markets to trade “paper BTC.” 

The expected supply crunch may start affecting the market, as new sources of Bitcoin and willing sellers are getting depleted. Even retail holders have already sold their coins, with significant outflows at much lower prices in the past year. Exchanges and OTC desks are also decreasing their available supply. 

Unmoved Bitcoin may continue to expand in the coming years, as even 500 BTC would be enough to set up a treasury company. Holders may never sell, instead tapping the value of their Bitcoin through various forms of staking, reserves, or lending.

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