Ripple gets 70% odds to successfully resolve SEC's XRP lawsuit

XRP issuer, Ripple may soon see legal clarity as Attorney John E. Deaton estimates a 70% chance that Judge Analisa Torres will approve the joint motion recently filed by Ripple and the SEC.

The XRP lawsuit has just taken another turn, as Ripple and the SEC filed a joint motion to end the lengthy legal battle. 

This move follows Ripple’s effort to access the $125 million currently locked in escrow. Under the proposed agreement, $50 million would be paid to the SEC as a fine, while the remaining $75 million would be returned to Ripple. Both sides argue the deal would expedite resolution, avoid further appeals, and finally close a legal battle that has lasted over four years.

Deaton revealed that he will talk about the XRP lawsuit’s chance of success in more detail tomorrow. He will explain why Judge Torres should approve it and why she might not. After that, his US legal and regulatory news for digital asset holders, CryptoLaw, will conduct a poll to see what everyone thinks. 

Deaton refers to the SEC’s action against the crypto industry as “aggressive”

Following Deaton’s speculation on the  70% chance Judge Torres would grant relief on the XRP lawsuit, he replied to public comments, stating that he did not anticipate receiving compliments or flattery from those involved. Instead, he wished the SEC would acknowledge some responsibility for past aggressive actions against the crypto industry.

The attorney mentioned that the SEC would admit that its previous leaders were too harsh regarding crypto.

Deaton also noted that another judge, Sarah Netburn, earlier expressed that SEC lawyers did not have a faithful allegiance to the law. He also mentioned the recent Debt Box case, where SEC lawyers received penalties for their behavior. 

Furthermore, John Deaton recognized that pending regulatory developments, including Crypto Clarity and Genius Acts, could have been cited in support of the motion.

Meanwhile, a former SEC official, Marc Fagel, shared his worries about the SEC’s logic in their most recent court filing. Citing the agency’s reference to elections and policy focus changes, he argued that it is not a strong legal argument.

Bill Morgan speculates that the SEC-Ripple filing will be approved soon

The SEC and Ripple filed a joint letter to the Southern District of New York’s US District Court on May 8, 2025.  The motion stated that approval would eliminate potential appeals and conserve court resources.

The letter stated, “The solution suggested by the parties will protect the resources of the Second Circuit… and end 4.5 years of intense legal battles.” If accepted, it will officially wrap up one of the most closely followed cases in cryptocurrency regulation. 

Analysts like Bill Morgan think the judge will probably agree to the motion, even if the reasons mostly focus on procedural details. 

As the XRP lawsuit progresses in court, the price of XRP stays within a narrow trading range. Technical indicators reveal consolidation as the price stays close to important support levels. 

If the price of XRP drops below $2.00, it might see more selling pressure. However, it could rise to $2.50 if it returns from this level. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index is at 41.18, indicating a slight bearish trend, but there is still potential for the price to recover. 

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