Wall Street and Washington are running on consensus junk logic

Right after President Donald Trump won the 2024 election, Wall Street jumped straight into celebration mode. Investors in New York told themselves tax cuts were coming, regulation would get slashed, and the president would do whatever it took to push stocks higher. That was November.

By January, traders had already priced in another round of so-called “animal spirits,” assuming the economy would fly again just like it did after Trump’s first win in 2016. There was no hesitation. There was no planning for worst-case scenarios. Everyone acted like they knew exactly what was coming, but no one could actually explain it.

At the same time, in Washington, officials who dealt with the first Trump trade war were already watching the signs. They said back then — and still say now — that Trump’s view on global trade was never about tactics or leverage. His use of tariffs was never about negotiation. It was about control. Trump doesn’t use tariffs to make deals. He uses them to hammer trade partners into what he sees as submission. This time, those officials said, he’s going much further than he did in 2018.

Trump locks in April 2 as the tariff trigger date

On Wednesday, President Trump posted on Truth Social that April 2 will be “Liberation Day in America!!!” He was referring to the day his new trade plan takes effect — the America First Trade Policy signed in an executive order on his first day back in office. That order authorizes across-the-board tariffs, gives his administration more power to retaliate, and strips out public comment requirements that were previously part of trade decision-making.

The executive order doesn’t require any congressional approval. It hands full power to the administration to act unilaterally. The language in the order gives them the authority to impose broad tariffs with almost no input from the public or industry leaders. Despite this, a lot of investors are still holding onto the hope that the policy will be watered down through back channels. But the current White House isn’t giving those signs.

Trump’s economic team is pushing full steam ahead. Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, and Howard Lutnick, the Commerce Secretary, have both supported the tariffs publicly. Bessent, who used to run a hedge fund, and Lutnick, who was a Wall Street CEO, were supposed to be the ones who would calm things down. That’s what everyone on the Street assumed. But instead of slowing things down, both of them have backed Trump’s plan from the start.

In a recent appearance on Meet the Press, Bessent said, “These market pullbacks are healthy,” and repeated that the administration won’t shift direction. Lutnick has been on several financial programs echoing the same thing. Both of them are now seen as the loudest public defenders of Trump’s economic approach. They haven’t backed away from the policy. They’ve been standing in front of it with a mic.

Greer pushes structure while others grab headlines

While Bessent and Lutnick are making media rounds, Jamieson Greer, the new U.S. Trade Representative, has taken a different approach. He’s not on TV. He’s not giving interviews. He’s doing the grunt work. He’s trying to build some internal structure into how the tariffs get applied. Greer has been setting up internal systems for how decisions get made, trying to create a step-by-step process instead of chaos. He sees the risk that comes from making trade decisions without discipline, especially when volatility is already creeping into the markets.

Greer’s efforts are being ignored by most of Wall Street. The traders, analysts, and execs are too focused on the louder voices and bigger headlines. But Greer’s work may end up being the only part of the administration that’s thinking long-term. According to internal memos reviewed by multiple officials, his office is focused on building transparency — but under Trump, that kind of planning doesn’t always get traction.

Outside the administration, multiple experts have warned that unchecked tariffs will do real damage. Matt Goodman from the Council on Foreign Relations, Bill Reinsch and Scott Miller from CSIS, and Kevin Nealer from the Scowcroft Group have all sounded alarms. Economists like Brad Setser have been writing detailed memos on how this tariff plan could hit supply chains, increase costs for companies, and raise prices for consumers. Many of those effects would land hardest in Trump-leaning states that depend heavily on imports and exports.

All of these experts have either gone public or briefed business leaders privately. Their warnings have been consistent. Aggressive tariffs mean retaliation. They break supply chains. They hurt U.S. businesses. And yet, the message is still not getting through to Wall Street. Executives in tech, auto, and retail continue asking for private meetings with the White House, trying to get exemptions or carve-outs before April 2. Most of them are still treating this policy like it’s a bluff. It’s not.

Markets respond with confusion and denial

In the past few weeks, the market has started to wobble. There have been short-term corrections and signs of real nervousness from analysts. Big investment firms have begun shifting their positions and adjusting forecasts. But what many are calling “uncertainty” is actually the opposite. There is no confusion here. Trump has made it clear what he’s doing. The tariffs are happening. What’s missing is the market’s willingness to accept that.

Major industry groups like the Chamber of Commerce are still putting out statements as if they can negotiate this away. They’re calling it a bargaining position. That logic didn’t work in 2018, and it’s not working now. On earnings calls, bank executives are carefully hedging their words, still trying to sound confident. But they’re bracing. Everyone is watching April 2.

Meanwhile, Congress hasn’t done much. The House Ways and Means Committee, led by Chairman Jason Smith and Ranking Member Richard Neal, has the authority to hold hearings and examine the policy. So far, no hearing has been announced. But there’s growing pressure for Congress to act. Lawmakers are being urged to reassert their role and push back on how much trade authority has been handed to the executive branch.

Under current law — specifically Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) — the president can impose tariffs with minimal oversight. Those powers have been used more aggressively under Trump than any modern president. And yet, Congress has not stepped in to rework the rules.

There are a few senators who’ve expressed concerns. Chuck Grassley, Todd Young, and Bill Cassidy have all raised questions about how much power the president has on trade. Grassley has said Congress should “play a bigger role.” Young and Cassidy have both warned that long-term damage could be done to U.S. competitiveness if the policy continues without checks. But whether those concerns will lead to action is still unclear.

The current MAGA-aligned Congress, with figures like Speaker Mike Johnson and Senator John Thune, has shown no signs of trying to limit Trump’s powers. And without their support, there’s little chance of getting any legislation passed.

The assumption that business leaders could steer Trump through backchannels has failed. The idea that proximity equals influence is dead. Trump listens to himself. Always has. Always will. “Tariffs are the policy,” one official close to the president said. “That’s not changing.”

As April 2 approaches, traders in New York and officials in Washington are starting to realize that the fallback plan doesn’t exist. There is no negotiation waiting in the wings. There is no reset button.

Wall Street and Washington are still pretending this might blow over. But they’re the only ones. The rest of the world is already moving. April 2 isn’t just a date. It’s a line. And once it’s crossed, nothing’s going back to normal.