Bitcoin pushes past $79K as markets anticipate Fed meeting, Strategy stays put

• QCP says markets have largely priced in a 25 bps Fed hike, shifting attention toward policymakers’ forward guidance.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $462.7 million in net outflows last week, although Friday’s outflows slowed sharply to $13.3 million.
• Strategy repurchased 1.4 million STRC shares last week and made no new Bitcoin acquisitions during the period.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $79,000 on Monday as the broader crypto market enters a closely watched week for policymakers.

According to QCP analysts, markets have largely priced in a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve (Fed) rate increase after the release of August inflation data last week. The focus has shifted toward how policymakers communicate their outlook for future rate moves.

US headline CPI rose 0.4% MoM in August, while annual inflation remained at 3.4%. Core CPI increased 0.3% MoM, above the 0.2% consensus expectation, although the annual core rate eased to 2.4%.

QCP said Bitcoin's initial decline to $76,700 after the inflation data suggests the market has largely absorbed expectations for a rate increase.

“The binary question of whether the Fed will hike has been answered; the critical issue for positioning is now how policymakers frame the move and what it signals about the path ahead,” QCP wrote in a Monday note to investors.

Bitcoin continues trading near key support levels, with QCP analysts identifying $75,000-$76,000 as support with $80,000-$82,000 as the main resistance zone.

The analysts also pointed to ETF flows as an important signal of market positioning. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $462.7 million in net outflows last week, although Friday’s outflows slowed sharply to $13.3 million from $282.5 million on Thursday, according to SoSoValue data.

Strategy repurchases $140 million in STRC shares

On the institutional side, Strategy did not purchase any Bitcoin last week, keeping its holdings unchanged at approximately 845,050 BTC, according to a Form 8-K filing on Monday. The company also stated that it did not sell shares through its at-the-market (ATM) offering program last week.

Instead of adding to its Bitcoin position, Strategy used $139.3 million of its USD Cash to repurchase 1.4 million shares of its STRC preferred stock. The company noted that its USD Cash balance stood at $1.3 billion, while its separate USD Reserve totaled $5.1 billion.

BTC is trading at $79,480, up 2.1% in the past 24 hours at the time of writing.