CFTC clears Bitnomial to offer prediction markets with no-action relief on crypto derivatives

The US derivatives regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has issued a no‑action letter to Bitnomial Exchange, LLC and its clearing affiliate, Bitnomial Clearinghouse, LLC, effectively clearing the way for the firm to launch regulated prediction markets and event‑based contracts tied to cryptocurrency prices, economic indicators, and other real‑world outcomes.

After the CFTC sent the no-action letter to Bitnomial, the company’s executives expressed excitement and stated that they aim to expand their presence globally. To illustrate the advantages of this letter, sources close to the situation described the no-action letter as a significant milestone for the company, alleging that Bitnomial is exempt from the stringent reporting regulations applicable to asset swaps under current US regulations, thanks to this letter.

These sources further noted that these strict reporting regulations create significant challenges for fast-moving platforms, such as prediction markets, in which numerous swaps occur in a single day.

Bitnomial achieves a significant milestone after receiving the no-action letter

Regarding the CFTC’s recent decision to give Bitnomial the go-ahead to proceed with its plan to offer event contracts and prediction markets, reports have pointed out that the company needs to provide its users with detailed information on its website before moving forward with this intention. 

Some of the clear information the individual requested included straightforward details such as the precise timestamps and sales data for contract markets. Moreover, Bitnomial needs to submit significant details to the CFTC when the federal government agency asks for them.

Apart from these requirements, it was also confirmed that the firm needed to ensure all available positions were completely collateralized. To break this point down, sources with knowledge of the matter, who wished to remain anonymous due to the confidential nature of the situation, pointed out that financial regulators required Bitnomial to refrain from utilising leverage and to implement a 1:1 backing. 

Notably, a 1:1 backing is essential in the operation of a company, as it ensures the availability of sufficient liquidity and helps a firm avoid critical circumstances that pose a threat to its stability.

In the meantime, it is worth noting that this recently released no-action letter indicates that financial regulators based in the United States are becoming more willing to consider new ideas for prediction markets. This move comes at a time when blockchain technology is introducing new financial options that were previously lacking in traditional financial systems. 

Several analysts weighed in on the topic. They conducted research and discovered that many individuals in the US began to show heightened interest in prediction markets around the time of the 2024 elections. 

Supporters expressed a strong belief that they can predict more precise results than traditional polls. Since that day to date, prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have drawn the interest of significant investors and have played a key role in popular culture. 

Prediction markets become more popular among individuals

In September 2025, an episode of South Park, a long-running, controversial, satirical animated sitcom on Comedy Central, widely known for its commentary on current events and cultural happenings, displayed Kalshi and Polymarket. This move made these two leading prediction markets more popular among individuals.

For instance, reports alleged that the month following their display on an episode of South Park, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), an American multinational financial services company that owns the New York Stock Exchange, made a significant investment worth $2 billion in Polymarket. Consequently, this valued the prediction market at $9 billion.

On the other hand, the leading user-friendly cryptocurrency exchange and platform, Coinbase, announced its decision to acquire The Clearing Company, a FinTech startup developing a next-generation, on-chain prediction market platform, as part of its goal to explore this sector in December.

This move is anticipated to conclude in January 2026, just before the start of the US midterm elections. At this time, analysts predict that trading activity on prediction markets will substantially rise as the election season commences.

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