Nonfarm Payrolls set to rise by 75K in August amid US labor market concerns
- Nonfarm Payrolls are set to rise by 75K in August, a tad higher than July’s 73K increase.
- The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the jobs data on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
- The US employment data will help determine the Fed’s interest rate outlook and direction of the US Dollar.
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the critical Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
The US Dollar (USD) remains at the mercy of the August employment report, which will be key to determining the size of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate cut due later this month.
What to expect from the next Nonfarm Payrolls report?
Economists expect Nonfarm Payrolls to increase by 75,000 in August after reporting a meagre 73,000 gain in July. The Unemployment Rate (UE) is likely to climb to 4.3% during the same period, following July’s 4.2% print.
Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), a closely watched measure of wage inflation, are expected to rise by 3.7% year-over-year (YoY) in August, following a 3.9% growth in July.
Previewing the August employment report, TD Securities analysts said: “We expect job gains moderated to 25K in August, in line with a recent slowdown in hiring momentum. The manufacturing, professional and business services, and federal government sectors are likely to weigh down NFP. “
“We also look for the UE rate to stay at 4.2%, reversing some volatile factors in the July report. AHE growth is likely to go sideways at 0.3% MoM and down to 3.8% YoY,” they added.
How will the US August Nonfarm Payrolls affect EUR/USD?
The US Dollar stages a solid recovery from five-week lows against its major currency rivals in the lead-up to the NFP showdown, dragging the EUR/USD pair back to the weekly low.
While a 25-basis points (bps) September rate cut is almost a done deal, with the CME Group’s FedWatch tool showing a 90% chance of such a move, speculations are also growing over a jumbo cut this month.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in his Jackson Hole speech last month, voiced concerns over the US labor market.
"Downside risks to employment are rising, while GDP growth has slowed notably, reflecting a slowdown in consumer spending," Powell told an audience of international economists and policymakers at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Powell further noted that "if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly,” as the Fed may need to cut rates.
On the data front, the US ISM reported on Tuesday that its Manufacturing PMI edged up to 48.7 in August from 48.0 in July, but fell short of market expectations of 49.
Meanwhile, the JOLTS report on Wednesday showed that US Job Openings, a measure of labor demand, fell to a ten-month low of 7.181 million on the last day of July, way below expectations of 7.4 million for the reported period.
The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report showed on Thursday that US private sector payrolls increased less than the estimated 95,000 print in August, rising by 54,000 jobs after a slightly upwardly revised 106,000 increase in July.
Against this backdrop of data disappointment, the August jobs report holds utmost significance as markets seek clarity on the size of the upcoming Fed rate cut call.
A reading below the 50,000 level and an expected increase in the Unemployment Rate could point to further slowdown in the country’s hiring momentum, adding to the calls for a 50 bps rate reduction this month.
In such a case, the USD could come under intense selling pressure, providing extra legs to the record rally in Gold.
In contrast, if the NFP prints above 100,000 and the Unemployment Rate stays at 4.2%, Gold could witness a sharp pullback as the data would push back against expectations of an aggressive rate reduction.
Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD:
“The main currency pair is keeping its range around the 1.1665 confluence zone of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50-day SMA ahead of the NFP release, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above the midline on the daily chart.”
“Buyers need acceptance above the 1.1700 barrier to extend the uptrend toward the August high of 1.1743. The next bullish target is seen at the July 24 high of 1.1789. On the other hand, strong support could align at the 1.1600 figure, below which the 100-day SMA at 1.1521 will be challenged. Additional declines could lead to the 1.1450 psychological level.”
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Read more.Next release: Fri Sep 05, 2025 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 75K
Previous: 73K
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
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