Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes the recent US Dollar rally and bond selloff have stalled as FOMC officials temper expectations for an October rate hike.

Deutsche Bank’s Early Morning Reid team reports that the S&P 500 broke a three-day losing streak, helped by a pullback in US Treasury yields and more dovish FOMC commentary. Despite strong US data and earlier upward pressure on yields, markets now price a much lower probability of an October Fed hike, supporting US equities into the upcoming jobs report.

ING’s Chris Turner notes that the French debt sell-off triggered a reassessment of global rate expectations, but US short-dated yields only corrected modestly.

The US Dollar (USD) trades marginally lower on Friday ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September at 12:30 GMT.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, attracts buyers for the fifth straight day and climbs back above the 102.00 mark during the Asian session on Friday.

The odds of an October Fed rate hike have roughly halved since Monday, and the Dollar Index has risen on every one of those days. It trades near 102.10, its highest since April 2025. The index is moving with Crude Oil and the Euro rather than with the odds for the Fed's next meeting.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rally gathers pace on Thursday, climbing to a fresh year-to-date high as resilient US economic growth, a firm labour market and stubborn inflation support expectations of further monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

The US Dollar (USD) continues to display underlying strength, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) touching its June year-to-date high near 101.80 despite recent data showing a deceleration in core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad highlights a resilient US economy underpinning Dollar strength, with the DXY at new cyclical highs. Upward revisions to US Q2 GDP and strong Q3 estimates from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model support the constructive outlook.

Deutsche Bank’s Early Morning Reid notes that softer US PCE revisions reduced expectations for an October Fed hike, even as the Dollar Index edged higher.

Dow Jones futures decline by 0.42% to trade near 51,060 during European hours on Thursday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures gain by 0.09% to trade around 7,720, while Nasdaq 100 futures rise 0.51% to trade near 30,850.

ING’s Chris Turner notes the Dollar remains strongly supported, with the DXY index near its highs for the year as solid US activity data reinforces the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance. He highlights resilient consumer spending, signs of accelerating payrolls and expectations for firm ISM readings.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar has extended gains, with the Dollar Index reaching the June year-to-date high around 101.80, even as US inflation data softened. Revised core PCE figures show slower underlying price pressures, reducing the likelihood of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes.

The US Dollar (USD) outperforms its major currency peers on Thursday. In the Asian session, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.13% higher to near 101.60. The DXY is little far from its yearly high of 101.80.

TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir assess US PCE and GDP revisions as broadly supportive for a firm US macro backdrop and a still-hawkish Federal Reserve stance. They highlight robust US growth, sticky inflation and upgraded GDP forecasts, arguing that lower inflation revisions do not materially alter the narrative for the US Dollar or Fed policy expectations.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to near 5.30% on Wednesday, its highest since 2007, on the same day US inflation came in under forecast. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied on the inflation release, faded for the rest of the session and closed on its low, just under 51,000.

The US Dollar (USD) has traded with marginal gains, coming under pressure following daily tops near 101.50 as investors have evaluated the softer-than-expected PCE data in August while trimming some bets on extra tightening by the Federal Reserve in the following  months.

The US Dollar (USD) is showing a moderately softer tone on Wednesday, weighed down by the recent pullback in US Treasury yields and some dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes the Dollar has eased from recent highs as lower Oil prices and comments from New York Fed President John Williams temper rate expectations. However, upcoming US August PCE and September ADP data are expected to show sticky inflation, stronger consumer spending and resilient labor demand, which BBH says should reinforce the Fed’s hawkish bias and support further USD strength.

DBS Group Research economist Eugene Leow assesses USD Rates ahead of the October FOMC meeting, noting investors see a near-even chance of a back-to-back Fed hike.

TD Securities’ TD Macro Research Insight argues the US Dollar rally is stretched against major currencies and is unlikely to break to new highs in current Fed hiking cycle. Month-end equity rebalancing flows, weaker-than-consensus US payrolls, and broadly short G10 FX positioning versus USD support a bearish Dollar regime, with risks from a potential US diesel export ban and geopolitical escalation.

Dow Jones futures gain by 0.39% to trade near 51,890 during European hours on Wednesday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures advance by 0.23% to trade around 7,750, while Nasdaq 100 futures rise 0.17% to trade near 30,660.

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes EUR/USD has dropped to its lowest level since mid-2025 as Dollar strength is driven by rising US rate expectations and a higher probability of an October Fed hike than an ECB move.

The US Dollar (USD) trades slightly lower against its key currency peers on Wednesday. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenbacks value against six major currencies, is down 0.11% to near 101.28. Still, the asset is close to its two-month high of 101.64.

ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner note the US Dollar remains strong despite softer US data, as rising long-dated US yields weigh on global risk sentiment and support the currency.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 101.40 in the early European trading hours on Wednesday.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) extends gains on Tuesday, approaching its year-to-date high as expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hikes drive strong demand for the Greenback.

The US Dollar (USD) has accelerated its recovery, adding to the positive start to the week and clinching new multi-week tops, always helped by the persistent advance in US Treasury yields and unabated geopolitical concerns.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes the Dollar is edging higher against major currencies, with the DXY index approaching its June 24 high near 101.80.

Dow Jones futures fall by 0.16% to trade near 51,750 during European hours on Tuesday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures inch lower by 0.03% to trade around 7,740, while Nasdaq 100 futures gain 0.12% to trade near 30,600.