Commerzbank’s Commodity Research team, led by Barbara Lambrecht, notes that uncertainty over crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz and conflicting transit data are clouding the outlook for Brent.

Rabobank's Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to hike its deposit rate by 25bp to 2.50% next week and then hold at that level for an extended period.

ING’s Peter Virovacz expects Hungarian industrial production to rebound in July, helping avoid a third-quarter GDP decline despite August headwinds from heatwave-related energy issues.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Claire Fan notes Canada’s labour market lost 42,000 jobs in August, partly reversing earlier gains and leaving modest year-to-date job growth. She emphasizes structural factors like demographics and weaker immigration as key drags.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Christoph Balz notes that the U.S. labor market surprised to the upside in August, with Nonfarm Payrolls and private sector jobs both rising strongly while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Wage growth continued to slow.

Nomura’s Global Markets Research team, led by Andrzej Szczepaniak, George Buckley and Josie Anderson, expects the ECB to raise the depo rate by 25bp to 2.50% at the 10 September meeting and then pause.

In a post on Truth Social, United States (US) President Donald Trump welcomed the creation of 162K jobs in August, a figure he described as significantly above expectations.

DBS Group Research expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, citing a resilient inflation-growth mix in the Eurozone. The report notes headline inflation has moved further above target, while core pressures remain contained for now.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Christoph Balz expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged, but highlights a significant risk of another 25 bps hike.

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said on Friday that monetary policymakers have some discretion over how quickly they bring inflation back to target, while stressing that returning inflation to the target remains imperative.

Commerzbank analysts Norman Liebke and Michael Pfister report that the Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 2.25% but adopted a more hawkish tone as inflation risks rise from higher energy prices and trade tensions with the US.

Societe Generale strategists note that the Indian Rupee (INR) rallied to its strongest level against the US Dollar (USD) since late June, helped by active RBI intervention and sizeable FX mobilisation flows.

The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August on Friday at 12:30 GMT. 

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights a sharp Forint rally after a Bloomberg report suggested the National Bank of Hungary may pause rate cuts on 22 September and consider lowering its inflation target. While unconfirmed, this aligns with the bank’s less dovish August message.

Deutsche Bank reports that US equities, led by the S&P 500, rallied as dovish remarks from Fed Governor Waller offset stronger US data. The S&P 500 logged its best day in nearly a month and moved close to record highs, supported by gains in the Magnificent 7 and easing energy prices.

Danske Research Team highlights that Fed Governor Waller is inclined to keep rates unchanged in September if August inflation shows further progress, but would consider a hike if inflation comes in hot.

The AUD/USD pair gathers strength to near 0.7210 during the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) following Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller’s remarks.

Sweden Current Account (QoQ): 126.2B (2Q) vs 93.9B

Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY): 13.1% (July) vs 6.5%

Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) registered at 2.5% above expectations (0.3%) in July

USD/IDR gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 17,670 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency pair is pushing higher as the US Dollar (USD) holds onto its recent gains after rebounding from intraday losses.

Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

Japanese Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that the officials will closely monitoring bond markets with heightened urgency. 

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee member Carl Hansen said on Thursday that future monetary policy moves hinge on trends across broad economic data sets. 

Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) below forecasts (-1.6%) in July: Actual (-3.6%)

South Korea Current Account Balance declined to 42.08B in July from previous 49.73B

Geoff Yu at BNY highlights CNY as the main outlier in the U.S. trade-weighted basket, showing behavior opposite to other key currencies. CNY failed to react positively to July–August Fed and Treasury decisions, with weak domestic growth reinforcing easing expectations.

The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath said that the central bank can wait to reduce interest rates, signaling that further easing is possible but in about a year or more, as he qualified the current monetary policy stance as “appropriate.”

UOB economist Jester Koh highlights that Singapore’s electronics PMI rose in August, with broad-based gains in new export orders, output and backlogs.

Geoff Yu notes that Bank Negara Malaysia kept its policy rate at 2.75%, judging the stance consistent with price stability and sustainable growth. The bank sees Malaysia’s economy on track for around 5% growth this year, with low inflation and limited external cost pass-through.