Societe Generale notes that the Polish Zloty strengthened while domestic bonds sold off as August inflation and second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exceeded expectations and the government presented its 2027 budget.

ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky reports that Polish inflation surprised to 3.4% on higher fuel prices, while food prices fell, and a busy data calendar looms for Central and Eastern Europe.

EUR/CAD continues its losing streak for the fourth successive day, trading around 1.6080 during the European hours on Tuesday. The currency pair continues to trade under pressure as the Euro (EUR) remains subdued.

Standard Chartered strategists Anubhuti Sahay and Saurav Anand expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to deliver a total of 50bps of repo rate hikes in FY27, split between October and December 2026, citing resilient activity and hawkish August Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes.

Societe Generale strategists note Brent has held above key moving averages near $85/84, keeping upward momentum intact as geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices drive a broader bond rout.

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, September 1:

Michael Pfister at Commerzbank notes that several central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB), have already raised rates following the inflation shock linked to the Iran conflict.

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid notes that global equities ended August on a softer footing as escalating US-Iran tensions and a hawkish Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Warsh weighed on risk sentiment.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that GBP/USD remains in a short-term range after last week’s sharp drop, with intraday trade expected between 1.3535 and 1.3570.

Danske Research Team notes that EUR/USD has modestly rebounded above 1.16 following recent Dollar strength after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.

German Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, showed a downside in July. The consumer spending measure fell 3.4% month-on-month (MoM), according to official data released by Destatis, while it was expected to have increased 0.4%. In June, Retail Sales arrived at 0% (revised from -1.1%).

USD/IDR edges higher after registering minor losses, trading around 17,770 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency pair holds its ground as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds, driven by hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Gold prices fell in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

A senior official from Japan’s Ministry of Finance on Tuesday declined to comment on recent foreign exchange shifts, adding that expected the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to steer monetary policy aligned with the economy, not influenced by the United States.

Japanese Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama said Tuesday that he confirmed with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that continued, coordinated action on FX is needed.

AUD/USD gains ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 0.7170 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

China's RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed to 51.5 in August from 50.9 in July the latest data published by RatingDog showed on Tuesday. The market forecast was for a 50.9 reading.

US President Donald Trump said that strikes on Iran will be limited, following a previous story reported by Axios, which said that he and his senior aides are considering waging limited strikes in Hormuz to prevent Iran from reconstituting its radar and missile capabilities to attack ships.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao argues that two months of broad Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) contraction leave China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth tracking below the official 4.5%-5.0% target, intensifying pressure on Beijing.

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong say the Singapore Dollar (SGD) slipped as the broad Dollar rebounded after Jackson Hole, but still retains relative resilience thanks to the S$NEER policy and firm domestic fundamentals.

BNY’s Wee Khoon Chong highlights that China’s factory slump is easing, with manufacturing PMI edging higher and export orders returning to expansion, while services and construction remain weak.

Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary crossed the wires in an interview with CNBC, said that Oil prices will come down, and added that US President Donald Trump has been saying that Iran is not ready for a deal.

Standard Chartered’s Tommy Wu raises Taiwan’s GDP growth forecasts, projecting 11.5% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027, both slightly above government estimates. The upgrade is driven by AI-related export strength and recovering domestic demand.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD surged to 1.2754 after previously expecting a tighter range, with the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER) still above its mid-point.

National Bank of Canada's (NBC) Taylor Schleich and Ethan Currie expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its overnight rate at 2.25% and maintain current balance sheet policy.

Rabobank strategists expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its overnight rate at 2.25% at the September 2 meeting and through 2027, despite markets pricing in around 17bp of tightening by year-end.

Rabobank’s Elwin de Groot discusses Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech and its impact on US rates. He notes that Warsh signalled dissatisfaction with recent inflation and openness to further hikes, lifting near-term rate expectations while lowering longer-term premia.

Preliminary Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for August arrives at 2.9% Year-on-Year (YoY), lower than estimates of 3.1%, but higher than the previous reading of 2.8%.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Eurozone August headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to accelerate to 3.3% year-on-year on higher energy, with core inflation steady at 2.5%.

TD Securities’ macro team, including Andrew Kelvin and Jayati Bharadwaj, expects the Bank of Canada (BoC) to adopt a dovish tone and provide limited guidance as trade tensions with the US rise.