ING notes that ECB officials have offered little resistance to hawkish market pricing as Oil rises, reinforcing front-end EUR rate expectations.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists Claire Fan and Abbey Xu expect Canadian GDP to be essentially flat in January after December’s 0.2% gain, with weakness concentrated in autos and housing but offset by energy and retail.

United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations above forecasts (3.4%) in March: Actual (3.8%)

United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index came in at 51.7 below forecasts (54.1) in March

United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in line with forecasts (3.2%) in March

United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 53.3 below forecasts (54) in March

Commerzbank’s Dr. Vincent Stamer updates Euro area inflation projections incorporating the Iran War and associated energy shock. The bank expects higher Oil and natural gas prices to push headline inflation above 3% in 2026 before easing back to the ECB’s 2% target by 2027.

Halpenny stresses that the extension of Trump’s pause only on attacks against energy assets, combined with Iran’s limited tanker gestures, suggests the Strait of Hormuz will stay constrained.

Rabobank’s RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets team reviews Banxico’s March 26 decision to cut the overnight policy rate by 25bp to 6.75%. The move was a close call, with two governors preferring to keep rates at 7.00%.

Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $ climbed from previous $-1.248B to $-1.09B in February

Mexico Jobless Rate meets forecasts (2.6%) in February

Mexico Jobless Rate s.a up to 2.7% in February from previous 2.6%

Mexico Trade Balance, $ came in at $-0.463B below forecasts ($1.2B) in February

Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja expects a relatively quiet UK data week, with focus on March DMP survey signals around the Iran conflict, inflation expectations, and hiring plans. He forecasts only marginal upside risk to Q4-25 GDP, with the ONS likely confirming 0.1% q-o-q growth.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Madis Müller said in an interview with Econostream that the central bank might need to wait for the release of second-round inflation effects before making any monetary policy adjustment.

Commerzbank’s Jörg Krämer expects the ECB to react to war‑driven energy inflation with at most one additional rate hike. Inflation is projected to rise above 3% by summer before easing, while Eurozone growth is revised down to 0.6% in 2026.

Ireland Retail Sales (YoY) declined to 0.8% in February from previous 3%

Ireland Retail Sales (MoM) fell from previous 1.5% to -0.8% in February

Italy 10-y Bond Auction increased to 4.09% from previous 3.31%

Italy 5-y Bond Auction: 3.48% vs 2.62%

Former Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in an interview with the Asahi newspaper that the central bank should continue pushing the monetary policy towards normalization.

Societe Generale analysts note that Norway’s central bank, Norges Bank signalled higher rates are likely soon to bring inflation back to target, even at the cost of weaker growth.

Italy Trade Balance non-EU increased to €5.529B in February from previous €2.124B

Austria UniCredit Bank Manufacturing PMI increased to 52.4 in March from previous 49.4

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that United States (US) soldiers are using local people to shield themselves.

Nordea’s Jan von Gerich argues that higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict have sharply increased uncertainty around the ECB’s rate path, with April hikes now being priced but still seen as premature without clearer inflation spillovers.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Governor of Central Bank of Cyprus Christodoulos Patsalides said in an interview during European trading hours on Friday that there is no need to rush for any monetary policy adjustments until the central bank has sufficient information.

Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) climbed from previous 0.4% to 1% in March

Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) registered at 1.5%, below expectations (2.1%) in March

Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 3.3% above expectations (2.4%) in March