ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Brent has broken above $100/bbl for the first time since July, driven by persistent geopolitical risk in the Persian Gulf and limited prospects for de-escalation between the US and Iran.

Danske Research Team expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise its deposit rate by 25bp to 2.50%, in line with consensus and market pricing, while President Lagarde is expected to retain full optionality on future moves.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy board member Kazuyuki Masu said on Thursday that the policy rate is still below our estimated range on neutral rate and has been below that level for a very long time so this needs to be fixed soon.

TradingKey - Na sexta-feira, 11 de setembro (ET), o Bureau of Labor Statistics dos EUA divulgará o Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (CPI) de agosto, o último grande relatório de inflação antes da reuniã

GBP/USD extends its winning streak for the fifth consecutive day, trading around 1.3540 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy board member Kazuyuki Masu said on Thursday that the central bank expected to continue raising interest rates given current accommodative financial conditions.

The AUD/USD pair declines to near 0.7215 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. Markets turn cautious as traders brace for the release of the US inflation data later this week.

Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations remains unchanged at 4.9% in September

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price depreciates after three days of gains, trading around $93.90 during Asian hours on Thursday.

The EUR/USD pair holds steady around 1.1635 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting and the release of the US August Producer Price Index (PPI) later in the day. 

US President Donald Trump crossed the wires on Wednesday, saying that the Iran war will end “immediately” right after the US midterm elections. He said that Iranians are “desperate to try and affect the election,” told to reporters before leaving for the Republican National Convention in Dallas.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports that USD/CNH continues to drift lower to its weakest level since January 2023 as China’s August Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose modestly while overall inflation remains subdued.

Commerzbank highlights that Taiwan’s August CPI undershot expectations due to favourable food base effects, but core inflation remains above the CBC’s forecast. The bank sees scope for a modest rate hike as growth stays robust and inflation risks persist.

Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish reports that the Central Bank of Chile kept the monetary policy rate at 4.50% in September, as weak domestic growth offsets rising external inflation risks. The bank highlights disappointing activity, deteriorating labour markets and anchored inflation expectations.

ING economists Carsten Brzeski and Franziska Biehl argue that while German inflation is set to rise above 3% and stay elevated into year-end, a repeat of 2022’s double-digit surge is unlikely.

US Treasury yields rise on Wednesday after the United States (US) Treasury Department announces plans to buy back $6 billion of longer-term government debt, three times the size of its usual operation.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note GBP/USD is steady after reaching a one-week high, with the British Pound (GBP) supported by rising Bank of England (BoE) tightening expectations and sensitivity to higher Oil prices.

DBS Group Research economist Ma Tieying expects the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise rates by 25bps at its September 17–18 meeting, describing a hike as almost certain given solid Gross Domestic Product (GDP), wage and inflation data.

Societe Generale economist Kunal Kundu expects India’s August Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation to rise to around 4.8% year-on-year from 4.4% in July, the highest reading under the new CPI series.

ING’s Chris Turner notes the Dollar has been unexpectedly soft despite higher energy prices and firm short-dated US rates ahead of the US August CPI and a likely 25bp Fed hike.

Private-sector hiring in the US has gained some pace in late August. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 12K jobs per week in the four weeks ending August 22.

Nomura’s Anderson, Buckley and Szczepaniak expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to keep its 0.00% policy rate unchanged for the foreseeable future, with inflation below 1% and the neutral rate estimated at around 0%.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects the Polish central bank to keep rates at 3.75% as Middle East tensions and higher Oil prices limit easing scope. Markets now price around 80bp of tightening, similar to the Czech Republic, but the NBP is less hawkish.

BNY Mellon’s Geoff Yu highlights Brent crude breaking above $100/barrel, with institutional investors rebuilding exposure to energy stocks while retail investors take profits.

Nomura’s analysts see Norges Bank delivering another rate hike in November as inflation remains sticky, before a 25 bp cut next year and further reductions beyond 2027 towards 3.50%.

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux and colleagues expect the NBP to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, with Governor Glapiński emphasising flexibility and data dependence.

Nomura strategists expect Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank to keep its policy rate on hold for the rest of 2026 and deliver only one 25 bp hike to 2.00% in early 2027.

EUR/CAD gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 1.6030 during the European hours on Wednesday.

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley says speculation over a structural shift in Japanese Yen (JPY) valuation is challenging traditional carry trade assumptions and Japanese investors’ appetite for foreign assets.

TD Securities’ Molly Brooks analyzes how US rates markets are pricing the September Federal Reserve meeting, highlighting unusually high uncertainty around a potential hold or 25bp hike.