Notícias

European Central Bank: Hawkish forecasts point to higher terminal rate – Nomura

Nomura’s European Economics team, led by Andrzej Szczepaniak and colleagues, notes that the ECB delivered a 25bp hike to a 2.25% depo rate and unveiled more hawkish forecasts.

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Bank of England: Hold stance extended as inflation risks linger – TD Securities

TD Securities economists expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% with a 7-2 vote as Greene joins Pill in calling for a hike. They highlight persistent inflation pressures, upside risks from energy and airfare, and softer demand.

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United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations dipped from previous 4.8% to 4.6% in June

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United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation declined to 3.4% in June from previous 3.9%

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United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index came in at 49.3, above forecasts (44.3) in June

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United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index above expectations (46) in June: Actual (48.9)

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Federal Reserve: Warsh policy shift and inflation focus – NBC

National Bank of Canada (NBC) strategists assess how Kevin Warsh may reshape Federal Reserve (Fed) policy.

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US Dollar: Peace deal talk keeps support intact – ING

ING’s Chris Turner notes that a potential US-Iran peace deal has softened the Dollar, but DXY is still holding firm. He highlights that energy supply losses and inflation risks persist unless Oil flows freely through the Strait of Hormuz.

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European Central Bank: Further rate hikes seen despite softer Oil – Nordea

Nordea’s Jan von Gerich highlights that the ECB delivered a widely expected 25bp hike and is likely to continue tightening, with the next move expected in July. He argues that broadening inflation pressures mean lower energy prices alone will not ease ECB concerns.

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Canada Capacity Utilization remains unchanged at 78.5% in 1Q

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Fed: Warsh era starts with cautious stance and delayed cuts – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Bernd Weidensteiner and Christoph Balz argue that Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Reserve meeting is unlikely to deliver an immediate rate cut, given elevated PCE inflation and a still‑solid labor market.

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India Bank Loan Growth climbed from previous 16.2% to 17.7% in May 18

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IRNA releases key terms under US-Iran MoU

Iran’s IRNA news agency releases the major terms of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) discussed with the United States (US). Earlier a report from Bloomberg showed that the MoU will be signed in Geneva on Sunday.

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Fed: Warsh debut expected to stay cautious – Nordea

Nordea’s Jan von Gerich expects Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting on 17 June to deliver a more neutral policy stance, with earlier projected rate cuts likely removed from the dot plot and some hike calls appearing.

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UoM Consumer Sentiment Index expected to remain depressed near historical lows in June

The University of Michigan (UoM) will release the preliminary estimate of June’s Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.

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European Central Bank: Hikes rates with hawkish tone – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s European economists highlight that the ECB delivered its first rate hike since 2023, lifting the deposit rate to 2.25% and pairing it with hawkish messaging from President Lagarde.

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India’s Consumer Price Index rises by 3.93% YoY in May, misses 4% estimates

India’s Consumer Price Index data for May has come in at an annualized pace of 3.93% in May, slower than 4% estimates, but higher than the previous reading of 3.48%.

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Polish Zloty: Political veto risk weighs on PLN – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights that President Karol Nawrocki has rapidly accumulated a record number of vetoes, blocking key legislation on crypto assets, taxation and healthcare. Ghose expects Nawrocki to continue obstructing reforms until the 2027 elections.

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China M2 Money Supply (YoY) came in at 8.6%, above forecasts (8.5%) in May

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US-Iran deal will likely be signed by the weekend in Geneva – Bloomberg

According to a Bloomberg report, senior officials have said that the United States (US) and Iran are edging closer to signing an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as the Group of Seven (G7) world leaders are set to meet next week.

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Equities: Cash, valuations and IPO supply – BNY

BNY’s Bob Savage analyzes U.S. equities using iFlow data, highlighting declining institutional cash balances, elevated valuations and record IPO issuance such as SpaceX.

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British Pound: BoE holds but hawkish risks rise – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja expects the Bank of England (BoE) to leave Bank Rate at 3.75% at the June meeting, with a likely 7–2 vote and Huw Pill and Megan Greene backing a hike.

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Indian Rupee: Flows-focused support and wider fiscal stance – Societe Generale

Societe Generale notes that the Government of India and Reserve Bank of India (RBI) are prioritising capital inflows to support the Indian Rupee (INR) rather than tightening policy.

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Forex Today: Renewed hopes of US-Iran peace deal help market mood improve

Here is what you need to know on Friday, June 12:

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United Kingdom Consumer Inflation Expectations increased to 4% from previous 3.2%

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United Kingdom Consumer Inflation Expectations: 3.5% vs 3.2%

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Iran says MoU with US requires finalization by relevant authorities

Iran’s Mehr news agency has reported in the European trade on Friday that the draft with the United States (US) regarding the permanent peace deal needs finalization by relevant authorities.

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ECB’s Kocher: Too early to predict July’s interest rate decision

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Martin Kocher stated in the European trade on Friday that it is too early to discuss what the central bank will do in the July meeting.

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Brent: Gradual decline extends with lower targets – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux and colleagues note Brent has fallen below $90 per barrel after US-Iran deal hopes and President Trump’s cancelled strikes. Their technical view highlights a sustained downtrend after losing the 50-DMA and breaking an ascending trend line.

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ECB's Makhlouf: The central bank needs to get ahead of inflation

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, Gabriel Makhlouf, said during the European trade on Friday that the central bank needs to act quickly before inflation starts accelerating further.

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