TD Securities strategists expect Canada’s International Merchandise Trade surplus to narrow in June as weaker Oil prices weigh on energy exports. They forecast a surplus of $2.5bn versus the market’s $3.0bn and May’s $4.2bn.

DBS economist Radhika Rao expects the RBI MPC to keep the benchmark rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance and cautious guidance.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur writes that despite South Africa’s reasonable recent performance under pressure from the Iran conflict, the central bank’s July decision to leave its key rate unchanged was surprising.

EUR/CAD remains stronger for the eighth consecutive day, trading around 1.6170 during the European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross is holding its ground as the Euro (EUR) gains support from an uptick in market risk sentiment.

Danske Research Team underscores strong United States (US) cyclical signals, with the ISM manufacturing index rising to 55.6 in July, beating expectations and June’s reading. New orders, employment and production all improved, while prices moderated.

ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky says Central and Eastern European markets opened positively, with rates markets outpricing hikes while FX stayed sidelined.

Rabobank’s Senior Market Strategist Benjamin Picton notes Brent futures fell over 7% and Singapore gasoil nearly 11%, despite ongoing geopolitical and logistical disruptions to Oil and refined products.

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, August 4:

Danske Research Team notes that global equities began August with fresh all-time highs in several MSCI indices. Gains were driven by sector rotation, with software rebounding 16% over the past week and lower Oil prices supporting sentiment.

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin H. Nasser said during the European trading session on Tuesday that the ongoing geopolitical crisis continues to aggravate the biggest supply shock in history.

The EUR/USD pair holds steady around 1.1505 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. Markets remain cautious ahead of the crucial US July jobs report, which is due later this week. 

USD/IDR halts its four-day losing streak, trading around 18,090 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency pair is gaining upward momentum as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) faces persistent pressure.

Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama declined to comment on effectiveness of joint intervention with the US Department of the Treasury, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

Japan Economy Minister Minoru Kiuchi said during the European trading session on Tuesday that the overall impact of the increase in the cost of goods has not yet been passed.

Australia ANZ Job Advertisements rose from previous -0.2% to 0.8% in June

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh is reportedly weighing whether the US central bank should hold fewer policy meetings each year, according to the New York Times, citing four people familiar with the matter.

Iranian state television, advisor to the Supreme Leader, General Mohsen Rezaei said that the country will absolutely not allow the opening of a second corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported on Monday.

United States (US) President Donald Trump said on Monday that Washington is currently holding talks with Iran, adding that the discussions are taking place at Tehran's request and describing them as a final opportunity for the Islamic Republic.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes USD/SGD slipped to 1.2809 but closed near 1.2821, with intraday bias still pointing lower.

Geoff Yu at BNY sees Brazil and Mexico operating in a more comfortable policy environment after the Fed decision, with anchored United States (US) front-end yields supporting emerging-market duration.

DBS Group Research economist Ma Tieying notes Taiwan’s 2Q GDP growth slowed to 12.9% year-on-year from 14.5% in 1Q, but remained solid on a quarterly basis.

UOB’s Ho Woei Chen notes that Hong Kong’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed to 4.3% year-on-year in 2Q26, with a 0.6% quarterly contraction after a strong start to 2026. Goods exports remain robust, but consumption and investment growth have moderated.

Standard Chartered economists Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding argue that China’s July data likely showed weaker momentum, with official PMIs for manufacturing, services and construction all below 50 and at multi-year lows.

Nordea economists Kjetil Olsen and Sara Midtgaard expect Norges Bank to leave the policy rate at 4.25% at next week’s meeting. They highlight that June core inflation was well below the Bank’s projection and see July data remaining subdued.

HSBC strategists note that the Federal Reserve (Fed) left policy rates unchanged in July, with markets now assigning a two-thirds probability to a September hike.

The remarks from New York Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President John Williams, in an interview with Reuters that took place on Friday and was released during the European trading session on Monday, signal that he was confident about inflation returning to the central bank’s 2% target.

Investors are attentive to the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday, as it releases July’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

EUR/CAD edges lower after opening with a bullish gap, remaining in the positive territory and trading around 1.6180 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross is holding its ground as the Euro (EUR) remains resilient despite mixed economic data from Germany.

Nomura strategists note that Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 0.4% year-on-year in July, helped by weaker car fuel prices and easing imported energy costs.

Chris Turner at ING argues EUR/USD should be performing better given solid Eurozone data, lower Oil prices and Japanese US Dollar (USD) selling, but notes possible US activity in EUR/JPY as a short-term drag.