US Treasury yields climbed to 24-year highs amid growing concerns over persistent, energy-driven inflation that could prompt tighter monetary policy. At the time of writing, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.33%, while the 30-year yield reached 5.67%.

Rabobank Research Global Economics & Markets reports that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is reluctant to continue rapid rate hikes, with September meeting notes revealing internal divisions and concerns over weak private consumption.

Rabobank’s RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets notes that US Treasury yields ended Q3 sharply higher, with 10-year and 30-year yields reaching levels last seen in 2002. The report highlights concerns from major market commentators about bonds and equities, and warns that another phase shift higher in long-dated US yields could take them into ranges seen during the late Cold War period.

USD/IDR gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 17,980 during European hours on Thursday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) rises amid elevated oil prices, while Treasury yields continue to offset the support from lower Fed rate-hike odds.

Commerzbank analysts Michael Pfister and Tatha Ghose examine how Euro political risks, especially in France, Spain and Italy, transmit to EUR/USD and a trade-weighted Euro.

Societe Generale’s Jan Groen reviews August US inflation and growth data, highlighting that Core PCE came in softer than expected but underlying price pressures in services remain firm. Benchmark revisions lowered measured inflation but still show it above levels consistent with the Federal Reserve’s target. Stronger consumption and GDP revisions suggest the US economy entered 2H26 with more momentum, keeping an October rate hike possible.

AUD/JPY halts its seven-day losing streak, trading around 109.80 during Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross remains stronger as the Australian Dollar (AUD) holds gains following the release of domestic Trade Balance data.

TradingKey - Na sexta-feira, 2 de outubro (EDT), os EUA divulgarão seu relatório de empregos não agrícolas (payroll) de setembro, com os mercados focados em saber se o crescimento do emprego conseguir

Australia's Trade Balance narrowed to A$495M MoM in August, followed a surplus of A$1,351M in the previous reading (revised from A$1,923M), according to the latest foreign trade data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday.  

Australia Trade Balance (MoM) declined to 495M in August from previous 1923M

Australia Imports (MoM): 5.8% (August) vs -2.5%

Australia Exports (MoM) climbed from previous -3.3% to 3.7% in July

US President Donald Trump unveiled a $200 billion investment plan from South Korea, $54 billion of which is slated to go to a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Alaska, Reuters reported on Thursday.

South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 52.3 to 53.9 in September

Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI meets expectations (54.1) in September

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) published the Summary of Opinions from the September monetary policy meeting, with the key findings noted below.   

Japan’s Tankan Large Manufacturing Index rose to 24 in the third quarter (Q3) from 22 in the previous reading, weaker than the market expectation of 25.

Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Index below forecasts (36) in 3Q: Actual (35)

Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index below expectations (25) in 3Q: Actual (24)

Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex came in at 11.3% below forecasts (12.3%) in 3Q

Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above expectations (49.3) in September: Actual (49.6)

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said, “Inflation is still too high, about 3%, new data doesn't alter outlook,” he said at a Q&A at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Mexico Fiscal Balance, pesos climbed from previous -171.53B to -5.57B in August

The Fed Governor Lisa Cook crossed the wires on Wednesday and said she is committed to returning inflation to the Fed’s 2% goal while preserving the strength of the labour market.

The European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde said that France’s debt situation is “serious at 120% of GDP and without a path to lowering it,” at an interview with La Croix.

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel said that high costs are passed through to consumers more quickly when the economy is resilient.

Russia Unemployment Rate meets forecasts (2.2%) in August

Colombia National Jobless Rate rose from previous 8.1% to 9.1% in August

United States EIA Gasoline Stocks Change increased to -1.684M in September 25 from previous -1.686M

Societe Generale analysts note China has unveiled targeted support measures, including a 25bp cut to the PBoC’s PSL rate and expanded relending quotas for innovation, technology, agriculture and small businesses.