Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists Nathan Janzen and Abbey Xu expect Canada’s June Consumer Price Index to show headline inflation easing to 2.8% year-over-year from 3.2% in May, mainly on lower energy prices.

Wells Fargo Economics has raised its global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast to 2.7% for 2026 and trimmed global Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 4.3%, reflecting a slightly lower Oil price path.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said in a LinkedIn post on Friday that inflation pressure remains broad-based, with businesses calling for policy action and consumers expressing a growing sense of despair as they struggle to cover their expenses.

TD Securities’ Robert Both expects Canadian headline CPI to ease to 2.9% year-on-year in June, with a 0.2% monthly decline driven by sharply lower Energy prices.

United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 54 (July) vs 50.7

United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.2% (July) vs previous 4.6%

United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.3% (July)

United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 54.4, above expectations (51) in July

Rabobank’s Global Daily, titled “To govern is to choose”, discusses the UK’s political and macroeconomic backdrop as Labour’s Andy Burnham is set to become prime minister.

TD Securities strategists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep the deposit rate at 2.25% in July after June’s hike, with September remaining a live meeting.

United States Capacity Utilization came in at 76.1%, below expectations (76.2%) in June

United States Industrial Production (MoM) registered at 0.1%, below expectations (0.2%) in June

UK Labour leader Andy Burnham said on Friday that he intends to lead a pro-business Labour Party, arguing that his experience working with businesses as Mayor of Greater Manchester will serve as the model for his future government, according to Reuters.

ING strategist Francesco Pesole notes that the recent GBP rally has stalled and EUR/GBP has rebounded from an important break lower. At 0.850, the cross remains around 1.5% undervalued versus ING’s short-term fair value model.

United States Import Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 6.7% to 7.1% in June

United States Export Price Index (YoY) down to 10.2% in June from previous 11.2%

Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities came in at $7.9B below forecasts ($15.21B) in May

Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities rose from previous $-11.36B to $22.27B in May

United States Building Permits Change fell from previous -0.7% to -3% in June

United States Building Permits (MoM) came in at 1.367M, below expectations (1.4M) in June

United States Housing Starts (MoM) above forecasts (1.31M) in June: Actual (1.427M)

United States Import Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (-0.7%) in June: Actual (0.3%)

United States Housing Starts Change climbed from previous -15.4% to 19% in June

American consumer confidence regained momentum in early July, as households grew more optimistic about current conditions and the broader economic outlook, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky reports a broad risk-off move in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), with elevated Oil and higher core yields pushing CEE rates up. Hungarian assets have suffered heavy selling, which he links to crowded longs and profit-taking.

Societe Generale’s Anatoli Anenkov expects no policy change at next week’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, with the central bank reiterating its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. Recent Euro Area data, including Germany and France, have not significantly altered the outlook.

OCBC Bank strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note the Swiss Franc (CHF) has lost much of its safe-haven appeal as Swiss National Bank (SNB) intervention risk and low yields weigh on performance.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warns of "more crushing" retaliation during the European trading session against the United States (US) and countries supporting it for hosting its bases.

According to a Kyodo News report, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 1% in the July policy meeting, people familiar with the matter told. The report also showed that the central bank will likely raise its growth forecast for the year.

Nordea’s Jan von Gerich expects the European Central Bank to leave policy rates unchanged at the July meeting, describing it as a pause rather than a shift in stance. Lower-than-expected June inflation and volatile Middle East developments reduce urgency for an immediate move.