Danske Bank’s Louise Aggerstrøm Hansen and Asger Wilhelm Dalsjö report that Danish private consumption strengthened in March, with real spending excluding energy up 1.2% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year.

The US President Donald Trump spoke on a press conference at the Oval Office and praised the Vice-President JD Vance work on Iran as he said that he “has done a very good job on Iran.”

Deutsche Bank economists say Germany’s recovery is being pushed back by higher energy costs and uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict. They cut their 2026 growth forecast to 1.0% while keeping 2027 at 1.5%. Inflation is projected to average 2.7% this year.

Societe Generale economists highlight that Euro area activity data in Q1 have been somewhat disappointing, especially German industry, but they see limited upside risk to their cautious 0.1% qoq German GDP forecast.

Deutsche Bank economists note the European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates unchanged in March but now expects two 25 bp hikes in June and September, already fully priced by markets. The deposit rate sits at 2.0%, seen as neutral.

ING economists Peter Virovacz and Frantisek Taborsky say Hungary’s new Tisza-led supermajority reduces short-term policy uncertainty and raises expectations for institutional repair, EU relations and fiscal credibility.

United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) below forecasts (4.06M) in March: Actual (3.98M)

United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) down to -3.6% in March from previous 1.7%

HSBC's report on G8 currencies argues that Middle East geopolitics and Oil remain the dominant drivers for the Dollar and major FX. The bank highlights a recently strengthened USD–Oil correlation driven by supply shock and safe-haven flows.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad points to upcoming IMF publications as key for assessing global risks.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman reports that Hungary’s election ended Viktor Orban’s 16-year rule, with Peter Magyar’s Tisza party on course for a supermajority. Planned institutional and constitutional changes could restore EU norms and unlock over EUR20 billion in frozen EU funds.

Russia Foreign Trade fell from previous $6.597B to $5.353B in February

Societe Generale analysts note a quiet week for the UK, with the March RICS housing survey pointing to weaker demand as higher energy costs and mortgage rates weigh on confidence.

Canada Building Permits (MoM) registered at -8.4%, below expectations (-0.5%) in February

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that the US Dollar (USD) has benefited from renewed safe haven demand and reduced Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut expectations, with EUR/USD currently testing below 1.17.

Deutsche Bank economists report the Federal Reserve (Fed) left rates at 3.50%-3.75% in March and still expects a 25 bp cut in September. Markets price only modest easing. They warn a prolonged Strait of Hormuz blockade could push Brent toward USD 120.

TD Securities strategists discuss Canadian by-elections in three federal ridings and notes that Prime Minister Carney’s Liberals are close to securing a majority in Parliament.

Danske Research notes that Norway’s March core inflation remained at 3.0% year-on-year, slightly below consensus and in line with Norges Bank’s projection, while headline inflation printed at 3.6% year-on-year.

ING’s Chris Turner writes that EUR/USD was pressured in Asia by higher Oil after failed peace talks, but notes the pair is holding above 1.1600.

Societe Generale economists Anatoli Annenkov, Michel Martinez, Fabien Bossy and Sam Cartwright argue that upside risks to Euro area core inflation justify bringing forward European Central Bank rate hikes.

Danske Research Team reports that Hungary’s election delivered a decisive victory for Péter Magyar’s pro‑EU Tisza party over Viktor Orban’s Fidesz, easing concerns about future EU budget and Ukraine aid negotiations.

According to a report from the Iranian state media Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), a spokesperson from Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said during European trading hours on Monday that Tehran condemns the United States (US) intentions to blockade vessels entering and exiti

Rabobank’s Global Daily notes the Euro is weaker in early Asian trading despite a decisive victory for Peter Magyar’s pro‑EU Tisza party over Viktor Orban’s Fidesz in Hungary.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights that Hungary’s election delivered a supermajority for Peter Magyar’s Tisza party, easing transition risks and opening scope for structural reforms.

Here is what you need to know on Monday, April 13:

DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee argues that stagflation will dominate the agenda at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring Meetings following President Trump’s Strait of Hormuz blockade.

Turkey Current Account Balance registered at $7.501B above expectations ($-7.5B) in February

Turkey Current Account Balance came in at $-7.501B, below expectations ($-7.5B) in February

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said in his prepared remarks in a speech during the European trading session on Monday that the economic recovery is modest in the wake of the war in the Middle East.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan notes that Trump’s announcement of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, following failed US–Iran talks, pushed Brent Oil up 9% to US$103 per barrel.