Notícias

Forex Today: Fading hopes of a US-Iran deal weighs on market mood

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, August 11:

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Euro: Gains capped below key resistance against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note EUR/USD has stalled after last week’s surge, with flat momentum pointing to a 1.1530–1.1560 intraday range.

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Australian Dollar declines against New Zealand Dollar following RBA decision

AUD/NZD pares its daily gains, trading around 1.1960 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) has drifted lower following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest monetary policy decision, keeping the currency cross on a weaker footing.

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Indonesian Rupiah stays under pressure as Retail Sales YoY decline in June

USD/IDR gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 17,850 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

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Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (4.35%)

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Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) registered at 3.2% above expectations (3.1%) in July

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Japanese Yen holds range in thin holiday trading amid intervention speculations

USD/JPY moves little after posting nearly 1% gains in the previous day, trading around 159.30 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair moved little today, trading in tight ranges as market volumes remained thin with Japanese markets closed for the Mountain Day holiday.

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BoJ to consider raising interest rates in September – Jiji Press

According to the Jiji Press, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may consider an additional interest rate increase at its next policy meeting on September 17-18, after leaving them unchanged in July, to counter upside inflation risks.

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Breaking: Gold rallies further beyond $4,400; highest since early June

Gold (XAU/USD) scales higher for the third consecutive day – also marking the fifth day of a positive move in the previous six – and climbs to its highest level since June 5, further beyond the $4,400 mark during the Asian session on Tuesday.

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WTI hovers around $81.50 as US-Iran peace talks stall

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price moves little after registering gains over 6.5% in the previous day, trading around $81.40 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

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RBA set to hold interest rate at 4.35% as softer inflation cools hike bets

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is on track to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% for the second consecutive meeting on Tuesday.

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Colombia Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.17%, below expectations (0.35%) in July

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Colombia Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (6.2%) in July: Actual (6.03%)

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Fed Hammack calls for rate hikes, says policy not restrictive enough

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack crossed the wires on Monday and was hawkish, noting that the current rate is not “meaningfully restricting the economy” and that there is a need for some number of rate hikes.

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US Treasury yields climb as Oil spike revives CPI jitters

US Treasury yields rose on Monday as traders braced for the release of US inflation figures this week, following a worse-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report last Friday.

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China: Cost-driven reflation and narrow profit gains – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered analysts Carol Liao and Moriarty Lam argue that China’s reflation remains largely cost-driven, with industrial profit recovery concentrated in AI- and oil-related sectors. They highlight that domestic demand continues to lag supply, creating a persistent imbalance.

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United States: Weak payrolls and softer retail sales – TD Securities

TD Securities notes July payrolls surprised sharply to the downside, with headline jobs dragged by government hiring, while private employment stayed near breakeven.

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Breaking: Iran won't negotiate with the US until Trump's term is done

In a major setback to efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and cool Middle East tensions, Iran ruled out any future negotiations with United States (US) President Donald Trump. Iranian outlets and a X post by y an adviser to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

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US President Trump says Iran should pay for regional damage

United States (US) President Donald Trump used a post on his Truth Social platform to push back on Iran's demands for war reparations, arguing that Tehran, not Washington, should carry the bill for the damage and lives lost across the region.

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Emerging Markets: Selectivity key as Fed path clouds – HSBC

HSBC Asset Management notes that Emerging Market local-currency bonds have delivered strong returns over the past four years, supported by credible policies and attractive real yields, but year-to-date performance has softened as US Treasury yields rose and EM-US real rate differentials narrowed.

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Denmark: Tax cuts keep inflation below the euro area – Nordea

Nordea economist Jan Størup Nielsen notes that Danish inflation eased slightly in July, with headline consumer prices up 1.7% year-over-year and core inflation steady at 2.3%.

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Eurozone: Resilient data but growth risks weigh on Euro – Rabobank

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes Eurozone Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data surprised to the upside, suggesting resilience despite higher energy prices and supply disruptions.

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Federal Reserve: Sideways growth and sticky inflation – TD Securities

TD Securities’ US economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect US output growth to move sideways in 2026 as the lingering Oil shock and Iran-related risks keep the Federal Reserve on hold through year-end.

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Hungarian Forint: Recovery against Euro may resume – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that the Hungarian Forint (HUF) has only partially retraced its post-election gains and is expected to recover if global risk conditions stabilise, with EUR/HUF seen returning towards 350–355 in coming months.

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Norwegian Krone: Rate hike odds slashed after soft inflation – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that Norwegian Krone (NOK) is trading mixed as firmer Oil offsets the drag from reduced Norges Bank tightening expectations.

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Federal Reserve: September hike odds reassessed – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Bas van Geffen comments that weaker United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and a drop in labour supply have reduced urgency for another Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, though policy remains data‑dependent.

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Copper: Tariff-driven arbitrage reshapes COMEX-LME spread – Societe Generale

Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem argue that Copper has shifted into a policy-driven trade as Section 232 tariffs reshape the COMEX-LME arbitrage.

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Norwegian Krone: Policy hold guidance in focus – Nomura

Nomura’s Josie Anderson, George Buckley and Andrzej Szczepaniak expect Norges Bank to keep its policy rate at 4.25% at the August meeting, citing softer underlying inflation and benign domestic data.

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CEE FX: Data-heavy week under global pressure – ING

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights a busy Central and Eastern Europe calendar with Czech inflation, Turkey’s inflation report and key Polish data, including GDP and core inflation.

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Australian Dollar: Hawkish RBA hold supports carry – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes that the Australian Dollar (AUD) remains one of the most attractive G10 currencies thanks to favorable carry and a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

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