United States Net Long-Term TIC Flows above forecasts ($128B) in May: Actual ($232.7B)

United States Total Net TIC Flows rose from previous $26.1B to $132.2B in May

Dr. Henry Hao at Commerzbank reports a strong upside surprise in China’s June trade data, with exports up 27% and imports 36% year-on-year, driven by global AI infrastructure demand.

Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (1.9%) in June

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that S&P’s affirmation of Indonesia’s BBB/A-2 ratings with a stable outlook is mildly supportive for the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) by removing immediate downgrade risk.

UOB’s Jester Koh raises Singapore’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.8% from 4.0% after strong 1H26 performance, with manufacturing and electronics leading gains on AI-related demand.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday that the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was encouraging but cautioned against overreacting to a single month of data.

Deutsche Bank strategists note that China’s latest trade figures significantly beat expectations, with both exports and imports accelerating in June. Strong global demand for AI-related and technology goods offset geopolitical pressures, widening China’s trade surplus well beyond consensus.

Societe Generale economists describe China’s June trade surplus of $125.62bn, driven by 27% yoy export growth and 36% import growth, with AI-related high-tech shipments up over 50%.

Bart Melek at TD Securities argues that money managers are heavily short crude based on what he views as misread market conditions, including pessimism on China demand and expectations of an oil glut.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Claire Fan expects Canada’s economy to rebound in Q2 2026, supported by resilient household spending, recovering business investment and expanding net trade.

Societe Generale notes Bank Indonesia’s (BI) reaction function is driven by the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) and exchange rate stability. The report says the Rupiah faces pressure from a stronger US Dollar (USD) and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) pricing, with stress around USD/IDR 18,000.

ING economists Peter Virovacz and Frantisek Taborsky turn more optimistic on Hungary’s growth outlook, noting positive surprises in high-frequency data and stronger consumption. They still project 1.5% GDP growth in 2026 but now see clear upside risks.

United States Redbook Index (YoY) declined to 8.2% in July 10 from previous 11.5%

According to the prepared remarks that Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh will deliver during his testimony on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the US House Financial Services Committee, he will note that the Fed has no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.

United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a declined to 336.07 in June from previous 336.121

United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) registered at 0%, below expectations (0.2%) in June

United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) below expectations (2.8%) in June: Actual (2.6%)

United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) registered at 333.95, below expectations (334.7) in June

United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.4% below forecasts (-0.1%) in June

United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 3.5%, below expectations (3.8%) in June

United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average fell from previous 21K to 19.75K in June 20

The US Dollar (USD) holds its early corrective move in Tuesday’s European session ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

Rabobank strategists Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit keep their Brent Oil forecasts broadly unchanged, projecting $80/bbl in Q3 2026 and $78/bbl in Q4 2026.

Commerzbank’s Christoph Rieger argues that US CPI and Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony will shape Fed expectations over summer, with markets currently pricing roughly a 50/50 chance of a July hike and more than 25bp by September.

United States NFIB Business Optimism Index came in at 97.4, above forecasts (95.8) in June

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note the US Dollar (USD) has strengthened broadly on higher Oil prices, hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) rhetoric and softer risk sentiment.

BNY Markets strategists John Velis and David Tam discuss new Federal Reserve (Fed) task forces and focus on the Communications group led by Mervyn King, Arminio Fraga and Peter Fisher.

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said on Tuesday that the “resumption of hostilities in the Gulf underlines instability going forward.”

ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner note that higher Crude and Gulf tensions are not yet fully priced, leaving short-term upside risks for the US Dollar (USD).