US Producer Prices rose 5.4% in August from a year earlier, according to the latest figures from the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS). The print came in just above estimates (5.3%) and the 4.8% gain recorded in the previous month (revised from 4.7%).

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Nathan Janzen assesses that new U.S. tariff retaliation and import bans on selected Canadian products represent a modest escalation in the trade dispute.

According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance decreased to 206K for the week ending September 5.

Brown Brothers Harriman's (BBH) Elias Haddad notes Norwegian Krone (NOK) underperformance after Norway’s mixed August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data reduced the perceived likelihood of a near-term Norges Bank hike, with September odds falling from 65% to 38%.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky reports that the National Bank of Poland left rates at 3.75% and provided limited new guidance, shifting focus to Governor Glapinski’s press conference. With markets already pricing around 85bp of tightening, ING sees a high bar for a hawkish surprise.

The yield for the 30-year US Treasury note trades above 5.3%, nearing the 2007 high, when Lehman Brothers collapsed. The benchmark US 10-year hit a 4.865% high earlier on Thursday, accumulating a 25 basis point rally in less than two weeks and a whole half point since late June.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes that the Czech National Bank (CNB) blackout period has started, with Deputy Governor Zamrazilova signalling a preference to keep rates unchanged at next week’s meeting.

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux expects a second 25bp ECB depo rate hike, stressing that wage dynamics and updated staff forecasts will determine how far tightening goes.

AUD/JPY extends its losing streak for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 110.70 during European hours on Thursday. The currency cross depreciates as the Australian Dollar (AUD) faces challenges amid escalating Middle East tensions that have weighed heavily on global risk sentiment.

Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.7%, above forecasts (0.3%) in July

Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) came in at 0%, above expectations (-0.6%) in July

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise the interest rate on the Main Refinancing Operations and the Deposit Facility by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.65% and 2.50%, respectively. The ECB will announce the decision on Thursday at 12:15 GMT.

Deutsche Bank reports that rising Oil and natural gas prices are pushing European yields to multi‑year highs and prompting markets to price a more hawkish European Central Bank path.

USD/IDR gains after two days of losses, trading around 17,570 during the early European hours on Thursday. The pair gains upward momentum as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) faces pressure from elevated oil prices, which strain fiscal conditions given Indonesia's status as a net oil importer.

Danske Research Team reports that global equities fell as higher energy prices, rising bond yields and a smaller-than-hoped US Treasury buyback weighed on sentiment.

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Brent has broken above $100/bbl for the first time since July, driven by persistent geopolitical risk in the Persian Gulf and limited prospects for de-escalation between the US and Iran.

Danske Research Team expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise its deposit rate by 25bp to 2.50%, in line with consensus and market pricing, while President Lagarde is expected to retain full optionality on future moves.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy board member Kazuyuki Masu said on Thursday that the policy rate is still below our estimated range on neutral rate and has been below that level for a very long time so this needs to be fixed soon.

TradingKey - Na sexta-feira, 11 de setembro (ET), o Bureau of Labor Statistics dos EUA divulgará o Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (CPI) de agosto, o último grande relatório de inflação antes da reuniã

GBP/USD extends its winning streak for the fifth consecutive day, trading around 1.3540 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy board member Kazuyuki Masu said on Thursday that the central bank expected to continue raising interest rates given current accommodative financial conditions.

The AUD/USD pair declines to near 0.7215 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. Markets turn cautious as traders brace for the release of the US inflation data later this week.

Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations remains unchanged at 4.9% in September

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price depreciates after three days of gains, trading around $93.90 during Asian hours on Thursday.

The EUR/USD pair holds steady around 1.1635 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting and the release of the US August Producer Price Index (PPI) later in the day. 

US President Donald Trump crossed the wires on Wednesday, saying that the Iran war will end “immediately” right after the US midterm elections. He said that Iranians are “desperate to try and affect the election,” told to reporters before leaving for the Republican National Convention in Dallas.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports that USD/CNH continues to drift lower to its weakest level since January 2023 as China’s August Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose modestly while overall inflation remains subdued.

Commerzbank highlights that Taiwan’s August CPI undershot expectations due to favourable food base effects, but core inflation remains above the CBC’s forecast. The bank sees scope for a modest rate hike as growth stays robust and inflation risks persist.

Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish reports that the Central Bank of Chile kept the monetary policy rate at 4.50% in September, as weak domestic growth offsets rising external inflation risks. The bank highlights disappointing activity, deteriorating labour markets and anchored inflation expectations.

ING economists Carsten Brzeski and Franziska Biehl argue that while German inflation is set to rise above 3% and stay elevated into year-end, a repeat of 2022’s double-digit surge is unlikely.