Notícias

Goolsbee, do Fed: Arrefecimento recente da inflação é encorajador, mas ainda são necessárias mais evidências

TradingKey - O presidente do Fed de Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, disse que ficou encorajado pelo recente arrefecimento da inflação, mas que serão necessárias novas melhorias semelhantes nos próximos mese

Fonte  Tradingkey1786727348
Chinese Yuan: Range trade persists near 6.7450 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank (UOB) analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/CNH remains confined to a tight intraday range, with momentum indicators still flat and the pair expected to trade between 6.7400 and 6.7500.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786726849
ASEAN FX: Regional data and growth concerns – MUFG

MUFG analysts focus on several ASEAN indicators for regional currencies. They flag Singapore’s July non-oil domestic exports after June’s strong 20.7% year-on-year rise, and expect Malaysia’s CPI to stay contained at 1.9% year-on-year.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786723260
Canada: Core softness guides BoC path – TD Securities

TD Securities’ Robert Both expects Canadian headline CPI to rise to 2.9% year-on-year in July, driven by higher gasoline and food prices, while ex. food/energy components stay muted.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786722780
Indonesia: Policy continuity supports Rupiah – ING

ING’s Lynn Song expects Bank Indonesia to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 5.75% this week, prioritizing Rupiah stability while avoiding an immediate hike. The report highlights BI’s growing reliance on non-rate tools such as SRBI yields and FX intervention.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786722300
Norwegian Krone: Range-bound near term, stronger in 2027 against Euro – Nordea

Nordea strategists see the Norwegian Krone (NOK) broadly stable over the next six months after July’s EUR/NOK decline, driven by higher Oil prices and Norges Bank’s increased NOK purchases.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786720860
China: Activity slowdown and LPR hold – ING

ING’s Lynn Song expects China’s July data to show continued sluggish momentum, with only a modest rebound and weak Retail Sales at 1.7% year-on-year. Fixed Asset Investment is forecast to contract further, while Industrial Production remains relatively firm.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786719257
Federal Reserve: Labour strength supports further hikes – Nordea

Nordea analysts Ole Håkon Eek-Nielsen and Jan von Gerich argue that the Federal Reserve is likely to deliver three more rate hikes over coming quarters to bring inflation back to target.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786718239
United Kingdom: Inflation risks tilt higher – TD Securities

TD Securities’ Julie Ioffe expects UK headline CPI to rise to 2.9% year-on-year in July, largely due to the Ofgem energy price cap adjustment. Services inflation is forecast to ease to 3.4%, while core goods rise to 1.0%, keeping core CPI at 2.6%.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786717731
Japan: GDP steady, inflation near BoJ target – ING

ING highlights that market consensus sees Japan’s preliminary Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) holding at 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, with Private Consumption remaining the main growth driver.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786717226
Oil: Diverging energy risks shape outlook – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Norman Liebke highlights that Oil and European natural gas are reacting differently to Middle East supply risks, with Brent supported by rerouted flows while gas remains constrained by lost LNG from Qatar and US cargoes diverted to Asia.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786716678
Canada: Solid growth with limited tariff drag – RBC

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Claire Fan highlights that Canadian growth rebounded strongly in Q2, supported by resilient domestic demand and improving net trade. She notes that U.S.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786715619
Japanese Yen: BoJ policy story having little effect – ING

ING’s Chris Turner notes that despite sharp moves in Japanese money markets, the Japanese Yen is not finding lasting support. Markets now price a high probability of a Bank of Japan hike in September, narrowing US–Japan swap differentials, yet USD/JPY remains elevated as carry trades persist.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786714224
British Pound: BoE hawks get support from UK data – Rabobank

Rabobank strategist Elwin de Groot observes that stronger-than-expected UK GDP has provided fresh ammunition to Bank of England (BoE) hawks, even as the Bank remains reluctant to tighten further. Growth was broad-based, with investment and GDP per capita both rising.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786713699
European Central Bank: Inflation keeps three rate hikes in play - Nordea

Nordea’s Ole Håkon Eek-Nielsen and Jan von Gerich expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to deliver three additional 25bp rate hikes, taking the deposit rate to 3%.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786713139
Norwegian Krone: Dovish turn risks NOK appeal – Societe Generale

Societe Generale notes Norway’s central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.25% and softened its hawkish tone. The bank still anticipates one further rate increase, but removed explicit guidance for a near-term hike.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786712375
Vendas no varejo nos EUA caem 0,6% de forma inesperada em julho com desaceleração dos gastos, impactando novamente expectativas de alta de juros do Fed

TradingKey - Os dados mais recentes das vendas no varejo dos EUA em julho vieram significativamente abaixo das expectativas do mercado. As vendas no varejo norte-americanas caíram 0,6% na comparação m

Fonte  Tradingkey1786712255
United States Retail Sales contracted by 0.6% MoM in July

Retail Sales in the United States decreased to $763.6 billion in July, the US Census Bureau reported on Friday. This print reversed the 0.2% expansion recorded in the previous month and came in below market expectations (+0.1%). On a yearly basis, Retail Sales were up 5.0% in this period.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786710917
Federal Reserve: Communication reset at Jackson Hole – TD Securities

TD Securities’ Oscar Munoz argues that Chair Kevin Warsh’s communication strategy has undermined market confidence in the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting resolve.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786710303
Swiss Franc: Strong growth may curb losses against Euro – Rabobank

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley highlights Switzerland’s stronger-than-expected Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and resilient economy, yet notes EUR/CHF remains in a gentle uptrend since late May.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786708721
Norwegian Krone: Restrictive Norges Bank stance and downside risks - Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke explains that Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4.25% and still signals that further tightening may be necessary as inflation remains above target. However, upcoming data, especially August inflation, could prompt the bank to drop its year-end hike signal.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786708171
Canadian Dollar: Manufacturing sales drag from energy – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists forecast Canadian Manufacturing Sales to fall 0.4% month-on-month in June, weaker than the market’s -0.1% call, mainly due to lower petroleum prices.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786706566
UoM Consumer Sentiment Index set to ease as inflation, labour market worries loom

The University of Michigan (UoM) will release the preliminary estimate of August’s Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786701600
Australian Dollar: RBA keeps hike option open – Rabobank

Rabobank strategist Elwin de Groot reports that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left rates unchanged, with markets initially reading the statement as dovish.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786699106
Federal Reserve: RMP pause and QT timing – TD Securities

TD Securities’ Gennadiy Goldberg and Molly Brooks analyze the Federal Reserve’s decision to halt Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) after tapering from $40bn to $10bn per month.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786698516
British Pound: Growth resilience supports gains against US Dollar – MUFG

MUFG’s Lee Hardman reports the British Pound (GBP) is the best performing major currency in August, with GBP/USD back above 1.3500. The United Kingdom (UK) economy is proving resilient to the energy price shock linked to the US-Iran conflict, with Q2 GDP up 0.4% after 0.6% in Q1.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786697692
Japanese Yen: Shifting rate expectations and currency support – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that Japanese government support for an imminent Bank of Japan rate hike has reinforced market expectations rather than surprised them. Probabilities now favor a hike as early as September, with October fully priced and another move in December possible.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786696714
Indian Rupee: RBI support offsets wider trade gap – Societe Generale

Societe Generale notes India’s headline CPI rose slightly to 4.45% year-on-year in July, backing the RBI’s decision to keep policy unchanged. The central bank has reportedly been active in FX markets as the trade deficit widened.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786695587
Norwegian Krone: Weaker after Norges Bank holds rates – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team notes that Norges Bank left its policy rate at 4.25% and kept a tightening bias despite weaker summer inflation. They still expect one final hike in September, though the odds have fallen and the decision is now finely balanced.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786692201
Equities: US stock rally broadens as S&P 500 hits new high – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists report that United States (US) equities, led by the S&P 500, have reached new record highs as softer inflation data and lower Oil prices reinforce expectations that the Fed can stay on hold.

Fonte  Fxstreet1786690337
goTop
quote