Notícias

Singapore Dollar: Resistance caps USD gains – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang notes that USD/SGD has rebounded from its recent low near 1.2660 and upward momentum is starting to build. The pair is seen as broadly supported above 1.2735, with major support at 1.2660.

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China: Trade support offsets weak demand – DBS

DBS Group Research economists led by Mo Ji assess recent China data, highlighting strong external trade but subdued domestic demand across consumption, investment and credit. They note resilient exports, soft industrial production and weak Fixed Asset Investment, especially in property.

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United States Total Net TIC Flows dipped from previous $184.5B to $150.7B in March

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United States Net Long-Term TIC Flows: $81.3B (March) vs $58.6B

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Asian FX: Oil shock and US yields pressure importers – MUFG

MUFG’s Michael Wan highlights that Asian Emerging Markets (EM) currencies have weakened as higher US real yields, a stronger Dollar and elevated Oil prices weigh on sentiment.

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Taiwan: AI cycle boosts growth outlook – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered’s Tommy Wu raises Taiwan’s 2026 growth forecast to 9.5% from 7.6% after much stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP data. The AI supercycle and robust exports are seen as key drivers, while private consumption benefits from government cash handouts and a tech-led stock rally.

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Japan Finance Minister Katayama: Volatility in Oil prices is affecting the forex market

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Monday that the volatility in Oil prices is affecting the forex market. Speaking to reporters after the first day of the G7 Finance Ministers meeting in France, she added that she is seeing speculative moves in the financial markets.

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China: Targeted support offsets April slump – TD Securities

Alex Loo at TD Securities highlights that China’s April data were weak, with soft retail sales and falling investment, while exports and housing prices offered some relief.

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Singapore: K-shaped NODX upswing to persist – UOB

UOB economist Jester Koh highlights a strong rebound in Singapore’s Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX), led by electronics and pharmaceuticals, with petrochemicals slightly softer.

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Fed Warsh will be sworn in on Friday at the White House

A White House official said that the US President Donald Trump will swear in Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman on Friday, May 22nd, at the White House.

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China: Growth slowdown and reflation risks – ING

ING’s Lynn Song highlights that China’s April data showed broad-based weakness in domestic activity, with retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment all disappointing.

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Equities: Energy shock risks to AI investment – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered’s Madhur Jha assesses how the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the current energy shock could challenge AI optimism. The bank highlights near-term risks to semiconductor input supplies and longer-term risks to AI investment and demand.

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United States NAHB Housing Market Index above expectations (35) in May: Actual (37)

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Europe: Rearmament reshapes growth outlook – Nordea

Nordea's Chief Economist Helge J. Pedersen argues that rapidly rising defense spending in Europe represents a historic fiscal expansion that can support GDP in the short term but raises medium‑term risks.

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RBA: Rate hike timing questions persist – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists reiterate their view that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will likely need to raise the cash rate to 4.60% in this cycle. They note that the May policy statement suggests hesitation to hike in June, and expects the RBA minutes to clarify this.

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China: Recovery stalls as domestic demand weakens – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao notes that China’s post-Q1 recovery lost momentum in April, with industrial output at a three-year low and fixed-asset investment shrinking. Domestic consumption remains fragile as retail sales barely grew and youth unemployment rose.

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United Kingdom: Sluggish jobs outlook persists – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja expects the United Kingdom (UK) labour market to remain weak after a surprise drop in the jobless rate driven by self-employment.

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IMF Staff: BoE doesn’t need to raise interest rates this year

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff, the Bank of England (BoE) doesn’t need to raise rates this year, based on the current energy price outlook.

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Chinese Yuan: Stimulus hopes as PBoC defends 6.8 – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists judge China’s April data as weak, citing higher Oil prices and soft consumer sentiment. They expect targeted fiscal stimulus focused on infrastructure and see the PBoC remaining cautious on easing.

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Equities: Bond-oil pressure hits sentiment – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists note that the S&P 500 has extended its run to seven consecutive weekly gains, the longest since 2023, even as rising bond yields and Oil prices triggered the worst daily decline since March.

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China: Cooling demand and stable US ties – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered strategists note that China’s April data showed weaker domestic demand, with both consumption and investment slowing even as exports supported industrial production.

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Japan mulls issuing fresh debt to fund extra budget - Reuters

According to a Reuters report, the Japanese government plans to issue fresh debt as part of its funding for a planned extra budget, a scenario that would undermine the Japanese Yen (JPY) and boost yields on Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs).

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US Dollar: Fed pressure and bond sell-off – ING

ING’s Chris Turner highlights that rising US Treasury yields and a bearish yield curve steepening are pressuring the Federal Reserve (Fed) to sound more hawkish, even without immediate hikes. He notes high Oil prices and higher yields are negative for risk assets but supportive for the Dollar.

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Japanese Yen struggles despite retreating oil prices

USD/JPY continues its winning streak for the sixth consecutive day, trading around 158.90 during the European hours on Monday.

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US President Trump: Iran is dying to sign a deal

United States (US) President Donald Trump said in an interview with Fortune, released during the European trading session on Monday, that Iran is dying to sign a deal with Washington. “I can tell you one thing—they’re dying to sign [a deal]," Trump said.

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Silver: Downside risks build after sharp slide – OCBC

OCBC strategist Christopher Wong notes that Silver dropped around 9% to below US$76/oz, extending a sharper correction than Gold.

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Italy Trade Balance EU declined to €-1.08B in March from previous €-0.652B

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Italy Global Trade Balance registered at €4.709B, below expectations (€5.2B) in March

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BoE’s Greene: Second-round effects of energy price shock won't show up for another year

Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Megan Greene said on Monday, “the second-round effects of energy price shock won't show up for another year.”

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Iran and Oman held discussions on safe transit through Strait of Hormuz

According to the state media, Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson said during the European trading session on Monday that technical teams from Iran and Oman met last week in Oman to negotiate a mechanism for safe transit in the Strait of Hormuz.

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