Notícias

United States Net Long-Term TIC Flows registered at $58.6B above expectations ($36.6B) in February

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United States Total Net TIC Flows increased to $184.5B in February from previous $-25B

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China: Structural export strength and chip constraints – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered economists Carol Liao, Moriarty Lam and Shuang Ding highlight that China has become the world’s largest exporter of AI‑related goods, with exports spanning raw materials to hardware and applications.

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Fed’s Musalem: Easing tariff impact will help lower inflation

Alberto Musalem, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of St. Louis, said in an exclusive note he gave on Wednesday that the Oil shock caused by the Middle East war is likely feeding core inflation, he expects it to be near 3% throughout the year.

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SGD: Policy-induced appreciation to counter inflation – DBS

DBS Group Research economists Taimur Baig and Chua Han Teng argue that recent commodity price shocks will inevitably lift inflation in Singapore, but highlight the role of the Singapore Dollar and policy buffers.

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KRW: Tech cycle and NPS hedging shift back bullish case – MUFG

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan argues that KRW could outperform in a de-escalation scenario despite vulnerability to prolonged conflict and higher Oil prices. The bank expects the strong AI and technology cycle to continue supporting South Korea.

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China: Import strength offsets export cooling – UOB

UOB’s Ho Woei Chen highlights that China’s March data showed a sharp divergence between exports and imports, narrowing the trade surplus to a 13‑month low.

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ECB’s Nagel: As long as Hormuz is not resolved, the danger of higher inflation rises

Joachim Nagel, President of the Bundesbank and member of the European Central Bank (ECB) spoke in an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday. He said that questions about the Strait of Hormuz are essential, as we're between the baseline and an adverse scenario.

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Oil: Supply shock sustains inflation risks – Rabobank

Rabobank Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that while risk sentiment has improved and the Dollar’s safe-haven bid has faded, the physical Oil market tells a different story.

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ASEAN-6: Differentiated tightening paths after energy shock – DBS

DBS Group Research economists Radhika Rao and Chua Han Teng assess how ASEAN-6 and India will respond to higher energy prices and renewed inflation pressures.

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Asia FX: Strong exports support selective outperformance – MUFG

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan notes that Asian currencies have benefited from a weaker US Dollar (USD) following the Iran conflict, but stresses growing dispersion across the region.

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Canada: Gradual spending stabilization continues – RBC

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) Economist Abbey Xu reports that Canadian cardholder spending strengthened modestly in March, with underlying activity stabilizing even as discretionary goods remained soft.

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United States NAHB Housing Market Index came in at 34, below expectations (37) in April

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ECB: Volatile oil clouds rate path – ING

ING’s Michiel Tukker notes that the ECB is unlikely to hike in April, but markets still price a 25bp increase by June and at least one more move in 2026.

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Fed’s Hammack: High energy could bring inflation but could also weigh on growth

Beth Hammack, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Cleveland, told CNBC in an interview on Wednesday that the key data to watch out for is how high energy prices get, but most importantly how long they stay high.

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Japan: Higher inflation and weaker growth outlook – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered revises its Japan macro outlook, cutting 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to 0.7% and raising Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation to 2.0% on a worsening terms-of-trade shock from higher Oil and a weak Japanese Yen (JPY).

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United States Import Price Index (YoY) increased to 2.1% in March from previous 1.3%

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United States Export Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 3.5% to 5.6% in March

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Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) registered at 2%, below expectations (2.3%) in February

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United States Export Price Index (MoM) came in at 1.6%, above expectations (1.5%) in March

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United States Import Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (2%) in March: Actual (0.8%)

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United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index registered at 11 above expectations (-0.5) in April

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USD: Dominance questioned as rivals stay weak – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes discusses whether the US Dollar’s global dominance is under threat as global imbalances widen and IMF meetings highlight systemic risks.

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AUD/USD: Limited near term upside within 0.7100–0.7155 – UOB

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann keep a mildly positive short-term view on AUD/USD after it climbed to 0.7147. The pair is expected to trade between 0.7100 and 0.7155 intraday, with a possible test of 0.7155 if momentum improves.

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US President Trump: I think Iran war can be over very soon – Fox Business

United States (US) President Donald Trump said in an interview with Fox Business Network that the war with Iran is very close to an end.

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United States MBA Mortgage Applications rose from previous -0.8% to 1.8% in April 10

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IRGC warns retaliation against US blockade

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said during European trading hours on Wednesday that it will not allow imports and exports in the Gulf, and the Sea of Oman if the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz against Iran's vessels continues.

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Trump steps up pressure on Iran with new military deployment - The Washington Post

The United States (US) administration plans to deploy thousands of additional troops to the Middle East in the coming days, according to a report published on Wednesday by The Washington Post, citing US officials familiar with the matter.

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JPY: Limited upside as BoJ stays cautious – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered’s Chong Hoon Park and Nicholas Chia argue that the Japanese Yen is unlikely to see significant appreciation near term, with USD/JPY projected at 160 by end-Q2.

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India Trade Deficit Government dipped from previous $27.1B to $20.9B in March

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