TD Securities projects US output growth to move sideways in 2026, slightly below trend, with Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 2.0% Q4/Q4 and unemployment around 4.3%. The Iran conflict and an oil shock pose stagflationary risks, while AI and high-income consumers support demand.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Marco Wagner notes that German manufacturing orders rose 1.9% in May, or 1.0% excluding large orders, pointing to an upward trend. He argues this supports a moderate recovery in German industry and a slight recovery in the broader German economy after a likely small Q2 decline.

Economic activity in the US service sector lost some momentum in June, with the ISM Services PMI easing to 54.0 from 54.5 in the previous month, matching analysts' expectations.

United States ISM Services Prices Paid down to 67.7 in June from previous 71.3

United States ISM Services PMI in line with expectations (54) in June

United States ISM Services Employment Index: 51.2 (June) vs 47.9

United States ISM Services New Orders Index fell from previous 57.3 to 55.1 in June

United States S&P Global Composite PMI registered at 51.9, below expectations (52.2) in June

United States S&P Global Services PMI came in at 51.2, below expectations (51.4) in June

TD Securities’ Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect the Federal Reserve to keep the Fed funds rate on hold throughout 2026 as US growth moves sideways and inflation stays elevated.

ING’s Francesco Pesole expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to deliver a 25bp ‘insurance’ hike in July, taking the policy rate to 2.50%, despite the sharp drop in Oil prices.

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that EUR/USD recently fell below its prior 1‑month forecast of 1.15, prompting a reassessment of projections.

Societe Generale notes that Sterling has been the strongest G10 currency since the Makerfield by-election, helped by a still-sizeable but reduced speculative short base.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes weaker US data and a softer Dollar helped Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies, but focus now shifts to local inflation and central banks.

EUR/JPY continues to gain ground for the second successive day, trading around 185.30 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross remains stronger as the Euro (EUR) holds ground following the release of key economic data from the Eurozone and Germany.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists Nathan Janzen and Abbey Xu note the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) Q2 Business Outlook Survey will show how firms reacted to recent energy price volatility, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) previously near US$100.

United Kingdom S&P Global Construction PMI below expectations (40) in June: Actual (38.4)

Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) registered at 3.1% above expectations (3%) in June

Deutsche Bank strategists note that the S&P 500 delivered its strongest weekly gain since early May, supported by a softer US payrolls print and a dovish repricing of Fed expectations.

Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY): 6.2% (May) vs 1.6%

Germany's Factory Orders jumps 1.9% in May, faster than 1.2% estimates, according to the official data published by the Federal Statistics Office on Monday. In April, the economic data was declined by 3.2%, revised higher from -3.8%.

Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) came in at 1.9%, above expectations (1.2%) in May

USD/IDR rises for the second successive day, trading around 18,040 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar receives support from prevailing market expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes later this year.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is gaining ground after remaining unchanged in the previous day and trading around 101.00 during the Asian hours on Monday.

Singapore Retail Sales (MoM) dipped from previous 0.3% to -2.3% in May

Singapore Retail Sales (YoY): 3% (May) vs previous 5.4%

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Emmanuel Moulin said at the Rencontres Economiques conference in Aix-en-Provence on Saturday that the central bank is in a “good position” after raising interest rates in its June policy meeting, with inflation easing alongside the slump in oil pr

Australia ANZ Job Advertisements declined to -0.2% in June from previous 1.8%

Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (YoY) fell from previous 4.4% to 3.9% in June

New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price fell from previous 0.7% to -1% in June