TD Securities analysts note the recent US curve flattening as investors took profit after a rally in rates, with Fed officials emphasising a cautious, wait-and-see stance on inflation and policy.

United States MBA Mortgage Applications climbed from previous -0.3% to 2.8% in February 13

Rabobank analysts argue that recent Federal Reserve remarks on Artificial Intelligence and interest rates underestimate AI’s disruptive, inflationary and deflationary effects.

TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team expects a solid January labour market report in Australia, projecting 25k jobs added and a participation rate of 66.8%, keeping unemployment at 4.2%.

South Africa Retail Sales (YoY): 2.6% (December) vs previous 3.5%

Nomura’s Senior European Economist Andrzej Szczepaniak notes reports that Christine Lagarde may leave her role as ECB President early so that EU leaders can appoint a successor before the French presidential election, as part of a broader effort to “future proof” the ECB from far-right influence.

MUFG's Head of Research Derek Halpenny remains constructive on EM FX for 2026, citing supportive global growth, restrained US tariff risk, and ongoing fiscal and monetary stimulus in major economies.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council (GC) member and French central bank Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said during European trading hours on Wednesday that the battle against inflation is over now.

Deutsche Bank’s Chief UK Economist Sanjay Raja notes that UK inflation fell to 3% year-on-year, its lowest level since March 2025, driven by weaker core goods and food prices, while services inflation remains sticky at 4.4%.

United Kingdom DCLG House Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (1.8%) in December: Actual (2.4%)

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that EUR/USD is stuck between 1.18 and 1.19 as recent US and Eurozone data have been uneventful, with attention turning to Federal Reserve minutes.

TD Securities’ Prashant Newnaha says the RBNZ kept the OCR at 2.25% and now signals a first 25 bps hike in late 2026 or early 2027, followed by limited tightening.

South Africa Consumer Price Index (MoM) remains unchanged at 0.2% in January

South Africa Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.5% (January) vs previous 3.6%

France Inflation ex-tobacco (MoM) down to -0.4% in January from previous 0.1%

The EUR/GBP cross holds losses near 0.8735 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) edges slightly higher against the Euro (EUR) after the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report.

United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a below expectations (0.2%) in January: Actual (0%)

United Kingdom PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a rose from previous -0.1% to 0.2% in January

United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) n.s.a down to -0.2% in January from previous 0.8%

United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a: 2.5% (January) vs previous 3.4%

United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) n.s.a in line with forecasts (0.4%) in January

United Kingdom PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a fell from previous 3.2% to 2.9% in January

United Kingdom Retail Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.5% below forecasts (-0.4%) in January

United Kingdom Retail Price Index (YoY) came in at 3.8% below forecasts (3.9%) in January

United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (-0.5%) in January

Scotiabank analysts Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that the Pound is underperforming after a disappointing UK employment report. Softer job gains and wages keep domestic risks elevated into CPI, retail sales and PMI data.

The AUD/NZD cross rises to near 1.1760 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges lower against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision.

Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence (QoQ) increased to 3 in 4Q from previous 2

Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM) fell from previous 0.08% to -0.1% in January

Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence (QoQ) down to -0.1 in 4Q from previous 2