National Bank of Canada (NBC) Economics and Strategy team, led by Taylor Schleich, Ethan Currie and Vy Le, argues that Kevin Warsh’s Federal Reserve (Fed) is deliberately increasing policy ambiguity by stripping out forward guidance.

United States Redbook Index (YoY) up to 10% in June 19 from previous 9.4%

Geoff Yu at BNY highlights that Eurozone PMIs remain weak despite a slightly better-than-expected composite reading. Core economies like Germany and France continue to underperform, with German services at a 43‑month low.

Private-sector hiring in the US has increased in early June. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 30.75K jobs per week in the four weeks ending June 6.

United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 30.75K (May 30) vs 25.5K

Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) up to 4.4% in April from previous 2.9%

Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) climbed from previous 0.1% to 0.8% in April

In a post published on Truth Social on Tuesday, United States (US) President Donald Trump claimed that Iran has "fully and completely" agreed to highest level nuclear inspections long into the future.

ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say global Aluminium output is rising, including in China, Europe and Asia ex-China, but the market remains in deficit. They estimate around 3mt of capacity has been lost to Middle East disruptions and is unlikely to return quickly.

Societe Generale analysts expect the Hungarian central bank Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) to cut rates by 25 bps to 6.0%, citing improved sentiment after Peter Magyar’s election victory and an EU-friendly policy stance.

TD Securities strategists note that Canadian headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May surprised to the upside, driven by energy and seasonal factors, while core measures remained stable near 2%.

Iran reaffirmed its red line on military issues on Tuesday, as markets continue to monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East.

BNY’s John Velis and David Tam argue that Chair Kevin Warsh is steering Federal Reserve communications toward less forward guidance and a stronger emphasis on price stability.

DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao notes that India’s 10Y government bond yield has remained confined between 6.90% and 7.05% as domestic and global drivers offset each other.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends losses for the second consecutive day, trading around $73.40 per barrel during the European hours on Tuesday. However, Crude oil prices pare its daily losses over persisting uncertainty surrounding Iran's nuclear program.

S&P Global will release the June flash Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) for most major economies, with the United States (US) data scheduled on Tuesday. These surveys of top private-sector executives are seen as an early indicator of the country’s economic health.

OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that easing US–Iran tensions have pushed Brent below USD80 as markets price a high probability of normalised Strait of Hormuz flows.

Preliminary United Kingdom flash S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declines at a faster pace to 48.7 in June from 49.3 in May. The Services PMI was expected to arrive higher at 50.0, a figure that separates expansion from contraction.

United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI below forecasts (50) in June: Actual (48.7)

United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 49.4 below forecasts (50.6) in June

United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 53.1, below expectations (53.6) in June

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister expects the Hungarian central bank to resume interest rate cuts, with consensus looking for a 25 basis point move. A strong Hungarian Forint and lower-than-expected inflation provide room for easing, leaving real rates high.

EUR/JPY extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 184.30 during the European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross depreciates following the release of HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from Germany. Attention is shifted toward Eurozone PMI data due later in the day.

Danske Research Team reports that global equities advanced, but underlying performance was highly dispersed, with US consumer and communication services names under pressure while most S&P 500 sectors and small caps gained.

German preliminary HCOB Manufacturing PMI arrives lower at 50.0 in June, as expected, from 50.1 in May. The 50.0 figure is a boundary line that separates expansion from contraction.

France Business Climate in Manufacturing below expectations (101) in June: Actual (100)

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) said on Tuesday that Japan's core consumer inflation rate excluding one-off factors, as measured by the Japanese central bank's new gauge, climbed 2.7% in May. This figure exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target and eased from 2.8% in April. 

India HSBC Services PMI down to 57.3 in June from previous 59.8

India HSBC Manufacturing PMI dipped from previous 55 to 54.5 in June

India HSBC Composite PMI dipped from previous 59.3 to 57.4 in June