Notícias

Brent: Geopolitics support crude and cracks – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem highlight that Brent has surged as US-Iran tensions, Trump’s rhetoric and Houthi blockade threats lift risk premia. Crack spreads in Asia and US have outperformed as refined products stay tighter than crude.

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China: Chinese AI models challenge US-led economics – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists analyses China’s AI (Artificial intelligence) ecosystem, noting that Chinese models are rapidly catching up in capability while being priced near mid-tier US systems.

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Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) below forecasts ($2060M) in June: Actual ($2M)

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Trump declares retaliation against Iran automatic in Truth Social post

Donald Trump opened the week on Truth Social with a promise that every American soldier killed by Iran will be repaid many times over, a directive he says has been passed to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Daniel Caine, and every leader in the military.

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UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves resigns as Andy Burnham reshuffles cabinet

The United Kingdom entered a new period of political uncertainty after Rachel Reeves stepped down as Chancellor of the Exchequer as part of the first cabinet reshuffle led by newly appointed Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

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Brent: Geopolitics support crude and cracks – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem highlight that Brent has surged as US-Iran tensions, Trump’s rhetoric and Houthi blockade threats lift risk premia. Crack spreads in Asia and US have outperformed as refined products stay tighter than crude.

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LatAm FX: Carry supports resilience against US Dollar - BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu sees Latin American currencies underpinned by strong balance-of-payments positions and attractive carry, even as global equity nerves rise.

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Euro: ECB pause seen limiting downside against US Dollar – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the ECB to leave rates at 2.25% this week after June’s 25 bps hike, maintaining a data-dependent stance without new projections.

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Canadian Dollar: Inflation cools as BoC stays patient – RBC

Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) Abbey Xu notes that Canadian inflation eased in June, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowing to 2.8% year-over-year and energy prices reversing part of their earlier surge.

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Fed: On-hold stance with upside hike risk – TD Securities

TD Securities expects the Federal Reserve to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged through 2026, as inflation stays above target and the labor market stabilizes.

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British Pound: Market calm under Burnham’s cautious agenda – ING

James Smith at ING highlights that UK markets have reacted calmly to Andy Burnham becoming prime minister, with risk premia contained as investors expect no major policy shocks this year.

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Breaking: Canada's headline CPI rose by 2.8% YoY in June

Canada’s inflation has cooled a tad in June, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.8% from a year earlier, coming in below market expectations and down from the 3.2% increase recorded in May. On a monthly basis, prices declined by 0.4%.

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Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) unchanged at 0.2% in June

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Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.8%, below expectations (2.9%) in June

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Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at -0.4%, below expectations (-0.2%) in June

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Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY): 2.1% (June) vs previous 2.2%

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Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) fell from previous 0.6% to 0.1% in June

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Norwegian Krone: Range trading view holds against Euro – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Jane Foley notes that softer Norwegian inflation has tempered expectations for further Norges Bank tightening, even after May’s 25 bps hike to 4.25%.

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European Central Bank: Oil risks support a September rate hike – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s rates team expects higher oil prices and weak growth signals to shape Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. A July rate hike is effectively ruled out, while markets have fully priced in another 25bp move in September.

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United Kingdom: Softer CPI supports prolonged BoE hold – TD Securities

TD Securities’ Julie Ioffe expects United Kingdom (UK) headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to slow to 2.7% year-on-year in June, in line with consensus but below Bank of England (BoE) projections, as lower fuel prices offset sticky Services. Core CPI is seen at 2.6% and Services at 3.6%.

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Iran: Mediators propose 10-day cessation of strikes to revive US-Iran interim deal

According to a senior Iranian official, mediators have proposed a 10-day cessation of strikes to find ways to revive the interim deal between the United States (US) and Iran.

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UK PM Starmer: My work is done

United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister (PM) Keir Starmer, the seventh PM since Britain’s exit from the European Union (EU), delivers his resignation to King Charles at Buckingham Palace.

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Japanese Yen: BoJ expectations skewed to upside – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Japan’s June Consumer Price Index (CPI) to edge higher across headline and core measures, with core ex fresh food and energy steady at 1.8%.

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CEE FX: Risk-off keeps pressure on forint – ING

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes that escalating US-Iran tensions are driving risk-off sentiment, overshadowing a light Central and Eastern Europe data calendar.

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Hungarian Forint: Lags as MNB cuts loom – Societe Generale

Société Générale identifies the Hungarian forint as July’s main Central and Eastern European (CEE) laggard, with EUR/HUF moving back above 363 as markets anticipate another 25bp central bank of Hungary Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) rate cut to 5.75%.

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Iran's Baghaei: Intermediaries share messages with Tehran over recent days

Esmaeil Baghaei Hamaneh, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran, said during the European trading session on Monday that Tehran pursues war and diplomacy based on its national interests when asked whether the door to talks with the United States (US) was now closed, Reuters repor

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Australian Dollar rises against Japanese Yen due to RBA-BoJ rate differential

AUD/JPY rises after two days of losses, trading around 113.60 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross appreciates as the Australian Dollar (AUD) holds gains following the release of the interest rate decision by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank.

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Canadian Dollar: Soft inflation supports extended BoC pause – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad looks for Canada June headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to slow to 2.9% year-on-year, with core measures near 2%.

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British Pound: Burnham honeymoon meets fiscal reality – ING

ING’s Chris Turner writes that Sterling has benefited from expectations Andy Burnham will appoint a fiscally cautious chancellor, alongside stale short positioning and M&A-related flows into United Kingdom (UK) equities.

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Euro remains weaker against Canadian Dollar as German PPI falls in June

EUR/CAD remains in negative territory after paring daily losses, trading around 1.6030 during the early European hours on Monday. The currency cross depreciates as the Euro (EUR) struggles following the release of Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) data.

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