The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around the 99.50 region, experiencing a relative surge as rising United States (US) Treasury yields and hawkish Fed expectations offset mixed risk sentiment. Elevated Oil prices reinforce inflation concerns, supporting the Greenback.

United States 2-Year Note Auction: 3.936% vs 3.455%

Bank of England’s (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill said that he stands ready to act against inflationary pressures stemming from the developments in the Middle East war.

United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index came in at 0, above expectations (-5) in March

The business activity in the US private sector continued to expand at a moderate pace in March, with S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) coming in at 51.4 (preliminary), down slightly from 51.9 in February.

DBS Group Research economist Ma Tieying assesses South Korea’s markets after President Yoon nominated Shin Hyun-song as the next Bank of Korea (BoK) governor. She argues Shin’s focus on financial stability does not translate into imminent tightening, seeing rate hikes as unlikely.

United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.4, above forecasts (51) in March

United States S&P Global Services PMI below expectations (51.7) in March: Actual (51.1)

United States S&P Global Composite PMI dipped from previous 51.9 to 51.4 in March

Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen notes that, against a backdrop of geopolitical risk, the EU is pushing to diversify its economic alliances, signing a free trade agreement with Australia after deals with Mercosur, India and Indonesia.

United States Redbook Index (YoY): 6.7% (March 20) vs 6.4%

United States Unit Labor Costs above forecasts (3.3%) in 4Q: Actual (4.4%)

Private-sector hiring in the US appears to have regained a bit of momentum early in March. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 10K jobs per week in the four weeks through March 7.

European Central Bank policymaker Olaf Sleijpen said on Tuesday that the rising energy prices are likely to become entrenched in wider economy more quickly than they did during the 2022 energy crisis, as reported by Reuters.

United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average climbed from previous 9K to 10K in February 28

Societe Generale analysts say EUR/HUF’s February decline stalled near 374 before a sharp rebound toward 400, with the 50‑DMA at 383/381 acting as key support. They expect possible consolidation between 383 and 396, warning that a break below support could revive the broader downtrend.

Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation meets forecasts (0.22%) in March

Mexico 1st half-month Inflation registered at 0.62% above expectations (0.37%) in March

Commerzbank’s Senior Economist Dr. Vincent Stamer notes that the Euro area composite PMI fell from 51.9 to 50.5 in March, with services weakening and manufacturing flattered by longer delivery times. He links this to the war in Iran, which is hurting expectations and lifting input prices.

TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team expects UK inflation to hold at 3.0% year-on-year in February, in line with the Bank of England (BoE) and market consensus. Core CPI is seen steady at 3.1%, with services easing but core goods ticking higher.

United Kingdom 10-y Bond Auction up to 4.911% from previous 4.585%

Commerzbank analyst Michael Pfister notes that despite low Hungarian inflation and February’s initial 25 bp cut, the Iran war has shifted priorities, with markets and the bank expecting the central bank of Hungary, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) to hold rates today.

United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI came in at 51.2, below expectations (53) in March

United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI registered at 51.4 above expectations (51.1) in March

United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI below expectations (52.8) in March: Actual (51)

Danske Research Team notes softer Japanese data, with composite PMI slipping and core CPI falling below target for the first time in four years, largely due to fuel subsidies. Despite this, PMIs show rising input prices and a weak Japanese Yen.

ING’s Chris Turner notes the Dollar has softened after comments on possible negotiations with Iran, but sees limited downside while the Strait of Hormuz remains shut and energy prices are elevated.

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, March 24:

Danske Research Team reports a sharp rebound in global equities after US President Trump signalled negotiations and a five-day halt to strikes on Iranian energy assets. European indices reversed steep losses, while US benchmarks closed higher.

BNY strategist John Velis says the March FOMC broadly matched expectations, with no rate change and minimal forward guidance, while markets swiftly repriced toward a more hawkish path.