Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden said in a program in the United States (US) during the European trading session on Friday that the ongoing war in the Middle East has raised the odds of market stresses combining.

Commerzbank analysts note that recent dovish comments from key European Central Bank (ECB) officials have left forwards pricing only modest near-term moves but still more than two hikes for 2026.

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes that global equities have rebounded to near-record levels on strong Q1 earnings optimism and a ceasefire-driven improvement in risk sentiment.

Danske Research Team keeps its EUR/SEK outlook unchanged. The cross is currently trading comfortably around 10.80, with NOK/SEK back above 0.98.

Italy Trade Balance EU increased to €-0.652B in February from previous €-1.138B

Eurozone Current Account n.s.a: €21.09B (February) vs €13B

Eurozone Current Account s.a below forecasts (€29.8B) in February: Actual (€25B)

Italy Global Trade Balance above forecasts (€3.83B) in February: Actual (€4.944B)

Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 17:

Philip Wee at DBS Group Research observes that GBP/USD has struggled to extend its rise, stalling just below 1.36 as Bank of England (BoE) officials signal no urgency to raise rates at the April meeting.

Commerzbank economists Jörg Krämer and Bernd Weidensteiner argue that despite a sharper fall in global oil production than during the 1970s crises, advanced economies should suffer less this time.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note AUD/USD has retreated from a spike to 0.7197, with intraday action expected to stay in a 0.7130–0.7180 band.

Asian equities decline on Friday as investor sentiment turned cautious regarding the prospects of a lasting US–Iran ceasefire agreement. Additionally, traders engaged in profit-taking after a strong rally fueled by increasing optimism about a potential resolution to the US–Iran conflict.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said that a decision on how soon to raise interest rates must take into account the fact that the nation's real interest rate is low, Reuters reported on Friday.

Finance ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) on Friday emphasized the urgent need to limit the economic repercussions of an ongoing Middle East conflict, highlighting a commitment to pursuing enduring peace.

UOB economist Ho Woei Chen assesses China’s stronger 1Q26 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data and its implications for policy. Despite real GDP rising 5.0% year-on-year, the team keeps its 2026 growth forecast at 4.7% due to external headwinds and weak domestic demand.

New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY): 2.7% (March) vs 1.5%

New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) dipped from previous 1.4% to 0.7% in March

OCBC’s strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong observe USD/MYR nearing key support as markets price optimism over US–Iran negotiations and a softer US Dollar (USD).

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur says China’s 5.0% growth, despite weak investment and retail sales, underscores reliance on external demand, keeping authorities wary of strong CNY appreciation.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with multiple world leaders this week, detailing the US' agenda of securing trade deals and policies aimed largely at reversing damage done through the first year of the Trump administration, specifically on earth minerals and general trade.

Standard Chartered economists Jonathan Koh and Edward Lee now expect Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to keep its policy rate at 4.25% in April, delaying a previously anticipated 25 bps hike to June.

TD Securities strategists highlight that China’s Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reached 5.0% year-on-year, at the top of the official target range, driven by strong exports and early bond quota usage.

BNY's Geoff Yu highlights that South Korea, Taiwan and Japan have become key surplus providers to the U.S. as China’s exports to America declined.

Danske Bank’s Danske Research Team observes that Chinese GDP and industrial production surprised to the upside, while retail sales remained weak and unemployment ticked higher.

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that G10 and Gelişen Piyasalar (EM) carry trades have delivered strong paper gains, helped by Iran-related market moves and high-yield currencies like the Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso.

Speaking to reporters outside of the White House on Thursday, US President Donald Trump made a series of statements surrounding the ongoing confrontation with Iran.

Standard Chartered Bank economists Madhur Jha and Ethan Lester assess how the Middle East conflict could affect global remittances.

Deutsche Bank economists Marc Schattenberg and colleagues discuss how higher Oil and gas prices linked to the Middle East conflict are weighing on the German economy.

United States 4-Week Bill Auction climbed from previous 3.56% to 3.595%