Notícias

Fed's Jefferson: Geopolitical tensions pose upside risks to inflation forecast

Federal Reserve (Fed) Vice Chair of Supervision Philip Jefferson said Thursday evening that the current policy stance should continue to support the labor market and allow inflation to resume its decline.

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Fed's Barr: Iran oil price shock could shift inflation expectations and delay rate cuts

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michael Barr said on Thursday that the economy has remained resilient through a series of shocks, but those have complicated the central bank reaching its 2% inflation goal.

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Fed's Miran: Shrinking the size of the balance sheet is desirable

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Stephen Miran said on Thursday that shrinking the size of the balance sheet allows for easier interest rate policy. Those who think that the Fed balance sheet can’t shrink ‘simply lack imagination’, Miran added further.

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United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence above expectations (-24) in March: Actual (-21)

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Ireland Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 65.2 to 56.7 in March

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Asian FX: Weak footing persists despite pause – OCBC

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong observes that Asian FX has shown tentative stabilization after a multi-week sell-off linked to the Iran conflict, but characterizes the move as consolidation.

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PHP: Energy shock risks and BSP stance – DBS

DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao discusses how the Philippines’ declaration of a national energy emergency in response to Middle East supply risks could affect inflation, growth and the Philippines Peso (PHP).

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Singapore: Growth risks tilt lower – UOB

UOB’s Senior Economist Alvin Liew reviews Singapore’s latest industrial production data and maintains the 2026 GDP growth forecast at 3.6%, with 2027 at 2.0%. The bank highlights broad-based weakness in February IP, despite continued AI-related support for electronics.

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APAC FX: Inflation channel and valuation gaps – BNY

Geoff Yu at BNY notes that North Asian economies face supply-related risks to their balance of payments despite ample energy reserves.

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New Zealand ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 100.1 to 91.3 in March

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USD/THB: Energy shock pressures Baht – Commerzbank

Commerzbank economists Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim highlight that USD/THB climbed to 32.65 as Thailand’s trade balance stayed in deficit and global energy prices rose.

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South Korea BOK Manufacturing BSI down to 71 in April from previous 77

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US President Trump delays Iran energy plant strike at Iran’s request

Recently, the US President Donald Trump announced the delay of Iran's energy plant destruction by ten days until Monday April 10, 2026, at 08:00 PM Eastern Time.

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China: Growth trimmed, inflation lifted – ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO's Senior Economist Arjen van Dijkhuizen reviews China’s macro outlook after the Iran conflict, noting stronger early‑2026 data but slightly lower GDP forecasts.

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Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision below expectations (7%): Actual (6.75%)

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USD/PHP: Emergency powers weigh on Peso – Commerzbank

Commerzbank economists Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim note USD/PHP rose to 60.10 after President Marcos declared a national state of emergency to tackle surging energy prices.

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BoE’s Taylor: Currently see a high bar to hiking

Alan Taylor, an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England (BoE), said that he currently sees a high bar to hiking the rates at a conference in New York hosted by Exante Data. He also added that the current energy shock looks more like the 2011 situation than the 2022.

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GCC: Shock transmission and buffers – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered Bank analysts Bader Al Sarraf and Razia Khan assess how the Middle East escalation and potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions could affect Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies.

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United States 7-Year Note Auction increased to 4.255% from previous 3.79%

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NOK: Norges Bank hawkish shift supports currency – ING

ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that Norges Bank delivered a hawkish shift, signalling upcoming rate hikes as inflation concerns extend beyond the energy shock. The bank now fully prices at least one hike in its projections, while ING expects only one move given its bearish Oil and gas baseline.

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United States 4-Week Bill Auction climbed from previous 3.615% to 3.62%

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United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 11 (March) vs 10

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United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change below forecasts (-49B) in March 20: Actual (-54B)

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ECB: Market pricing challenges Lagarde stance – ING

ING strategists Michiel Tukker and Benjamin Schroeder note that markets continue to price two to three European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes in 2026, with April odds still elevated. They stress that the ECB must balance data dependence with managing expectations along the curve.

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South Africa SARB Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (6.75%)

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Russia Central Bank Reserves $ dipped from previous $803.2B to $776.8B

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Norges Bank: Higher rate path supports stronger Krone – Nordea

Nordea's Chief economist Kjetil Olsen and Senior Macro and FX Strategist Sara Midtgaard note that the central bank of Norway, Norges Bank now signals a policy rate hike to 4.25% at an upcoming meeting, with the new path pointing to 4.25–4.50% by year-end.

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US: Initial Jobless Claims rose to 210K last week

According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance increased to 210K for the week ending March 21.

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United States Continuing Jobless Claims below forecasts (1.86M) in March 13: Actual (1.819M)

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United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 210.5K (March 20) vs previous 210.75K

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