UBS's Chief Economist Paul Donovan highlights that central banks are focused on second-round effects from Gulf developments rather than immediate policy shifts.

Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco, spoke at the University of California-Berkeley's Fisher Center on Friday. She indicated that, at this point, she is observing whether higher oil prices are affecting the prices of other goods and services.

Citing an Iranian official, Fars News Agency reported on Friday that if the US naval blockade persists, Tehran will consider it a violation of the ceasefire and close the Strait of Hormuz, per Reuters.

Deutsche Bank’s Robin Winkler argues that German manufacturing faces an ongoing "China shock" as Germany’s trade deficit with China has reached a record size and now exceeds its surplus with the US.

Volkmar Baur at Commerzbank flags surging trade and current account surpluses in China, Taiwan and South Korea alongside weak currencies versus Euro (EUR) and, for the Won (KRW), even versus US Dollar (USD).

Danske Research Team reviews Sweden’s March inflation, highlighting a downside surprise in core inflation and energy, driven by a sharper-than-expected fall in electricity prices and broad food price declines.

In a post published on Truth Social on Friday, United States (US) President Donald Trump said that they will get the "nucelar dust" from Iran, created by their B2 bombers.

BNP Paribas economist Hélène Baudchon compares the current Oil and gas price surge linked to the war in Iran with the 2022 energy shock.

In a video statement released on Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that they have the opportunity to make a historic deal with Lebanon, per Reuters.

Deutsche Bank analysts flag a sharp rise in 10‑year gilt yields after a report that former United States (US) ambassador Peter Mandelson failed security vetting, with the decision allegedly overruled.

Nordea’s Ole Håkon Eek-Nielsen and Jan von Gerich now expect the ECB to deliver four consecutive 25 bp rate hikes starting in June, despite recent ceasefire news in the Middle East.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), gave a statement at the fifty-third meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMF) on Friday.

Commerzbank analysts highlight that the International Copper Study Group has already shifted its 2026 view to a deficit and is likely to project further tightening into 2027.

The United States (US) and Iran are currently negotiating a draft agreement aimed at ending the conflict, according to a report by Axios. The talks focus on a three-page memorandum of understanding that includes several measures related to Iran’s nuclear program.

Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister of Iran, announced on Friday that in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report that GBP/USD reversed sharply after nearing 1.3600, with intraday downside now expected to stay within a 1.3495–1.3555 range.

Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities up to $25.36B in February from previous $11.39B

Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities below expectations ($23.81B) in February: Actual ($6.17B)

Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) came in at 235.9K below forecasts (255K) in March

Nordea analysts Ole Håkon Eek-Nielsen and Jan von Gerich argue that higher energy and commodity prices, together with tight labour markets and solid demand, make Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts unlikely.

India Bank Loan Growth rose from previous 13.8% to 16.1% in March 16

Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden said in a program in the United States (US) during the European trading session on Friday that the ongoing war in the Middle East has raised the odds of market stresses combining.

Commerzbank analysts note that recent dovish comments from key European Central Bank (ECB) officials have left forwards pricing only modest near-term moves but still more than two hikes for 2026.

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes that global equities have rebounded to near-record levels on strong Q1 earnings optimism and a ceasefire-driven improvement in risk sentiment.

Danske Research Team keeps its EUR/SEK outlook unchanged. The cross is currently trading comfortably around 10.80, with NOK/SEK back above 0.98.

Italy Trade Balance EU increased to €-0.652B in February from previous €-1.138B

Eurozone Current Account n.s.a: €21.09B (February) vs €13B

Eurozone Current Account s.a below forecasts (€29.8B) in February: Actual (€25B)

Italy Global Trade Balance above forecasts (€3.83B) in February: Actual (€4.944B)

Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 17: