Deutsche Bank strategists highlight that negotiations between Iran and Oman over a new shipping framework through the Strait of Hormuz remain finely balanced, with Tehran linking any lasting arrangement to broader demands on the US.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky says Romania’s unchanged Baa3 rating at Moody’s and prior Fitch decision should ease pressure after recent ROMGBs underperformance.

EUR/CAD inches higher after three days of losses, trading around 1.6120 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross is holding its ground, driven primarily by a resilient Euro (EUR) following positive Eurozone economic sentiment.

HSBC Asset Management reviews recent coordinated intervention by Japanese and US authorities to support the Japanese Yen, recalling the sharp carry-trade unwind during the previous episode two years ago.

Deutsche Bank strategists report that falling energy prices helped push the S&P 500 and other major equity indices to record highs last week. The rally was reinforced by a renewed AI (Artificial intelligence) trade, with semiconductor stocks posting particularly strong gains.

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister analyses NOK/SEK through oil-price sensitivity and rate expectations. He finds the Norwegian Krone reacts more strongly to oil than the Swedish Krona, while Riksbank expectations adjust more to oil shocks than Norges Bank.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad argues that the British Pound (GBP) requires a stronger-than-expected United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) print to gain upside traction.

Deutsche Bank strategists report that falling energy prices and softer Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations helped push the S&P 500 and other major equity indices to new record highs last week.

The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a negative note against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The USD/INR pair rebounds to near 95.22 as oil prices extend their recovery move and the US Dollar regains ground after a weak Friday.

USD/IDR holds gains after registering over 0.5% losses in the previous trading day, hovering around 17,860 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair continues to trade with an upward bias as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) faces pressure following the release of domestic Consumer Confidence data.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is gaining ground after registering modest losses in the previous day and trading around 99.70 during the Asian hours on Monday.

Indonesia Consumer Confidence fell from previous 117.8 to 116.8 in July

Japan Current Account n.s.a. below expectations (¥1512B) in June: Actual (¥-92.3B)

Japan Current Account n.s.a. below expectations (¥1512B) in June: Actual (¥923B)

The ongoing US-Iran conflict has entered a crucial diplomatic phase, with intense fighting and strategic pressure around the vital Strait of Hormuz continuing to drive the dynamic of the war.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) published the Summary of Opinions from the July 30-31 monetary policy meeting, which showed a split between members wanting to hold rates to assess the impact of the last rate hike and others pushing to continue or accelerate tightening. Key findings noted below.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price depreciates after registering over 4% gains in the previous trading day, hovering around $76.40 per barrel during the Asian hours on Monday.

DBS Group Research anticipates China’s credit demand to stay weak in July, with new Yuan loans around RMB 10.8 billion and M2 growth at 8% year-on-year. Corporate and household medium- to long-term lending are likely to soften amid cautious borrowing and mortgage prepayments.

United Overseas Bank (UOB) analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann see USD/CNH confined to a narrow intraday range, with flat momentum suggesting consolidation between 6.7450 and 6.7550.

DBS Group Research expects Singapore’s final 2Q26 GDP to be revised up to 5.9% year-on-year and 1.3% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted, driven by stronger manufacturing and services.

A US official says that there is progress in Oman-Iran talks and that a deal could be signed soon, according to Reuters. Once the deal is announced, this would restore commercial shipping, and the US would lift the blockade. 

Standard Chartered’s Jonathan Koh and Edward Lee now expect Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to keep its policy rate unchanged at the 27 August meeting, abandoning a previously projected hike.

US Treasury yields drop across the curve amid growing speculation that the Oman-Iran deal is about to be sealed, which has so far pushed energy prices lower, while investors also digest a “bad” Nonfarm Payrolls report in the US.

Commerzbank’s FX analysts, including Charlie Lay and Moses Lim, note that USD/IDR slipped slightly but stayed below the key 18,000 level as softer global Oil prices and stronger Indonesia Q2 GDP supported the Rupiah.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/SGD has firmed modestly, with the pair closing at 1.2835 after testing both 1.2800 and 1.2840. Short-term momentum now favors a mild upside, though strong resistance at 1.2850 is expected to cap gains.

TradingKey - De acordo com relatos da mídia, fontes disseram que o governo Trump deu um passo adiante em sua pressão sobre os membros do Federal Reserve ao iniciar formalmente um processo de destituiç

Standard Chartered’s Aldian Taloputra notes Indonesia’s Q2 GDP grew 5.3% year-on-year, slowing from 5.6% but beating consensus. Stronger-than-expected H1 data leads the bank to raise its 2026 GDP forecast to 5.3%.

Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) Nathan Janzen reports that Canada’s labour market strengthened in July, with a 75k employment gain following robust increases in May and June and a decline in the unemployment rate to 6.4%.

The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations shows that households’ inflation expectations decreased slightly over the short-term horizon and remained unchanged at the medium and longer-term horizons. One-year inflation expectations eased from 3.7% in June to 3.6% in July

ABN AMRO’s Chief Economist Nick Kounis highlights renewed US labour market weakness, with Nonfarm Payrolls falling and household employment data softening. He notes the unemployment rate declined as labour force participation dropped to multi-decade lows, signalling cyclical weakness.