Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay and Dr. Henry Hao report that China’s private manufacturing PMI eased slightly to 51.7 but still delivered the strongest quarter in nearly six years, with official PMIs also beating expectations.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes USD/SGD closed at 1.2960 after a volatile session, with intraday swings between 1.2938 and 1.2975. For the coming day, he expects the pair to stay confined within a narrow 1.2935–1.2975 band.

Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish expects a drawn-out USMCA negotiation process rather than agreement expiry, highlighting comments from Mexican and US officials that downplay irreconcilable differences.

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that clients have largely capitulated on Japanese Yen (JPY) and South Korean Won (KRW) longs as these currencies stay weak versus US Dollar (USD) and Chinese Yuan (CNY).

TradingKey - Em 2 de julho, horário do leste, após dois relatórios consecutivos do mercado de trabalho inesperadamente fracos, outro dirigente do Federal Reserve declarou que a atual postura restritiv

ING’s Carsten Brzeski analyses a new German government reform package focused on cutting red tape, increasing labour market flexibility, and capping healthcare and pension costs to restore competitiveness.

United States 4-Week Bill Auction fell from previous 3.61% to 3.605%

Commerzbank’s Bernd Weidensteiner notes that weaker US employment data for June and downward revisions to prior months reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike rates at the late-July meeting.

DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao notes that Indonesia’s onshore FX and bond markets have stabilised following a correction in global Oil prices, though gains are modest.

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above expectations (81B) in June 26: Actual (87B)

Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann said on Thursday that an “activist move” may be needed if inflation expectations and outcomes move unfavorably, according to a speech text released by the BoE ahead of an event hosted by French bank Natixis.

UOB economists Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Sathit Talaengsatya see Thailand’s 2Q26 starting stronger than feared, driven by exports and technology-linked investment, but with domestic demand still weak.

Rabobank strategist Michael Every highlights how Fed Chair Warsh and other major central bankers at Sintra are signalling a structural shift away from traditional forward guidance towards data-driven “framework guidance.” Every stresses that evolving AI, new inflation measures and reduced public tou

United States Factory Orders (MoM) came in at -1.3%, above expectations (-1.8%) in May

Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish argues that the US decision to opt for annual USMCA reviews instead of a 16-year extension prolongs policy uncertainty for Mexico while leaving near-term trade flows intact.

Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI up to 53 in June from previous 52.9

Commerzbank’s Bernd Weidensteiner highlights that US nonfarm payrolls rose only 57,000 in June, far below consensus, with prior months revised down by 74,000. Monthly job growth has been slowing and the six-month average is expected to turn lower.

TradingKey - Impactado pelo feriado do Dia da Independência dos EUA, o relatório de folhas de pagamento não agrícolas (non-farm payrolls) de junho, originalmente agendado para divulgação na sexta-feir

ING strategists Benjamin Schroeder and Michiel Tukker discuss how a potential increase in the Minimum Reserve Requirement (MRR) by the ECB could tighten Eurozone liquidity and reduce ECB losses.

Russia Central Bank Reserves $ dipped from previous $743.8B to $715.2B

Singapore Manufacturing PMI: 51.3 (June) vs 51

While speaking at a Banco de España conference in Santander, Spain, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said that she doesn't see any signs of a lack of economic resiliency in the US, despite above-target inflation, per Reuters.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Ralph Solveen reviews Germany’s new reform package agreed by CDU/CSU and SPD, focusing on bureaucracy reduction, labor market changes, and modest tax adjustments.

According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance shrank to 215K for the week ending June 27.

United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.814M, above forecasts (1.81M) in June 19

United States U6 Underemployment Rate declined to 7.9% in June from previous 8.1%

United States Unemployment Rate registered at 4.2%, below expectations (4.3%) in June

United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average dipped from previous 224.25K to 222K in June 26

United States Labor Force Participation Rate fell from previous 61.8% to 61.5% in June

United States Initial Jobless Claims below forecasts (220K) in June 26: Actual (215K)