Pakistan and Iran are exploring a possible path toward renewed negotiations with the United States (US) as part of a new diplomatic initiative supported by China, Reuters reported, citing several sources familiar with the discussions.

Lloyd Chan at MUFG highlights that Singapore’s June inflation data stayed benign, with modest upticks in headline and core CPI. MAS is expected to keep policy unchanged in July but retain a tightening bias.

Rabobank’s Stefan Koopman expects the Bank of England (BoE) to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July and unchanged through 2026, even as markets still price some chance of further tightening.

TD Securities reports that Canadian Retail Sales rose 1.0% month-on-month in May, matching consensus but slightly below its forecast. Gains were broad-based, led by gasoline stations, autos, general merchandise and sporting goods.

Commerzbank analysts highlight that ECB President Lagarde has opened the door to a September rate hike, with sources suggesting euro area inflation must improve markedly to avoid tightening.

Rabobank's Senior Macro Strategist Stefan Koopman notes UK headline CPI fell to 2.6% in June, below the MPC’s forecast, with broad-based downside surprises and easing domestic pressures.

The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to keep its interest rate unchanged at 3.75% at its July 30 monetary policy meeting, according to a Reuters poll of 70 economists. None of the respondents expects a change in interest rates at next week's meeting.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky reports that surging Oil and gas prices triggered a sharp hawkish repricing of policy paths in Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary, taking implied tightening back to stressed March–April peaks.

The Euro (EUR) trades slightly higher to near 1.1385 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The major currency pair edges up as the US Dollar corrects marginally after a strong upside move the previous day.

Commerzbank’s Bernd Weidensteiner expects the Federal Reserve to leave the policy rate at 3.50%–3.75% at the upcoming meeting, while debating potential hikes if inflation fails to ease.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and head of Lithuania's central bank, Gediminas Simkus, said during European trading hours on Friday that the chances of an interest rate hike in the near term are higher than maintaining the status quo.

S&P Global will release the July flash Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) for the United States (US) on Friday. These surveys of top private-sector executives are seen as an early indicator of the country’s economic health.

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According to preliminary data, the United Kingdom (UK) S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) arrives above 50.0 in July, a figure that separates expansion from contraction, after declining in June. The Services PMI lands at 51.8.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur says the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 7% came as a negative surprise, particularly after June inflation rose and Brent crude moved above USD 100 per barrel.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research highlights that escalating US-Iran tensions and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have driven Brent crude above US$100 for the first time since May, with Asia trading near US$101.

German flash HCOB Composite PMI returns to the expansion trajectory in July after declining in June. Preliminary figures show that the overall business activity expanded to 51.2. The Composite PMI was seen arriving at 49.8 from 49.5 in June.

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell sharply as surging Oil prices and stagflation fears weighed on risk assets. Weak post‑earnings reactions in Tesla and Alphabet dragged the Mag 7 index to its biggest daily loss since 2025.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects Russia’s central bank to keep its key rate at 14.25%, despite political and economic pressure for a cut. Surging inflation expectations, higher Oil and commodity prices, and accelerating Consumer Price Index (CPI) argue against easing.

GBP/JPY remains calm after six days of losses, trading around 218.20 during the early European hours on Friday. The currency cross holds its ground as the British Pound (GBP) receives support from the release of stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales data.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Martin Kocher said on Friday that he doesn’t see any hard evidence of second-round effects, but the central bank will act if the inflation outlook deteriorates. 

USD/IDR depreciates after registering over 0.5% gains in the previous day, trading around 18,020 during the Asian hours on Friday. However, the pair may see upward momentum following Bank Indonesia's (BI) unexpected decision to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.75% in July.

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Brent has broken above $100/bbl as Middle East tensions escalate and supply risks mount. They highlight threats to flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, as well as disruptions to Kazakh exports.

Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, in the United Kingdom (UK) climbed 1.0% month-over-month (MoM) in June after rising by 1.2% in May, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Friday.

Asian stock markets fell across the board on Friday as intensifying US-Iran conflict and US President Donald Trump's new tariffs temper investors' appetite for riskier assets. Japan’s Nikkei N225 is down nearly 3% while South Korea's KOSPI declined over 4.5%, underperforming broader markets.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council Member and President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, said on Friday that the central bank is in a good position to respond to surging energy prices.

Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama delivered a verbal intervention on Friday, saying that authorities prepared to take decisive steps on foreign exchange.

The United States (US) will impose new tariffs of between 10% and 12.5% on imports from most major trading partners, its biggest move yet to reconstruct US President Donald Trump’s tariff wall that was pierced by the Supreme Court, Bloomberg reported on Thursday. 

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said it is attacking Iran for the 13th consecutive night, the Guardian reported on Friday. The US military stated that this action aims to hold Iran accountable and diminish threats from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to commercial shipping.