Notícias

Breaking: US and Israel attack Iran, risk aversion to sweep global markets

Early Saturday, United States (US) President Donald Trump announced that the US had begun “major combat operations” in Iran, following Israel’s pre-emptive missile attacks against Tehran.

Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions down to ¥11.5K from previous ¥13K

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United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions fell from previous $159.9K to $159.2K

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Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions rose from previous $45.9K to $52.6K

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United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 172.7K vs 141.3K

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Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions fell from previous €174.5K to €156.9K

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United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions: £-57.1K vs previous £-42.4K

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United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: $-193.5K vs previous $-177.8K

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Taiwan: Data to confirm strong upswing – DBS

DBS Group Research expects Taiwan’s upcoming January export orders and industrial production to show strong double-digit growth, helped by last year’s low base and robust global AI-driven demand, alongside semiconductor and ICT inventory restocking.

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India: Weak growth impulse and fiscal risks – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu reviews India’s FY27 Union Budget, highlighting policy continuity and fiscal consolidation in a context of geopolitical strains and currency weakness.

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China: Policy mix guides 2026 growth path – UOB

UOB’s Ho Woei Chen expects China’s National People’s Congress to set a 2026 real GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0%, with actual growth forecast at 4.7%.

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Indonesia: Inflation seen higher on base effects – DBS

DBS Group Research expects Indonesia’s February inflation to rise to 4.1% year-on-year, driven by a low base and fading one-off stimulus in administered prices. While most components should stay subdued, elevated precious metal prices are seen lifting personal care costs.

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UK: Data and surveys preview – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank outlines a busy UK data calendar, expecting stronger Net Consumer Credit, a partial rebound in Mortgage Approvals to 64.5k, and unchanged PMI Manufacturing and Services at 52.0 and 53.9.

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Turkey: Growth resilience and inflation risks – ING

ING’s Muhammet Mercan projects Turkey’s 4Q25 GDP growth at 3.9%, implying 3.8% for 2025, underpinned by domestic demand but with some quarterly loss of momentum.

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Russia Industrial Output fell from previous 3.7% to -0.8% in December

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Sweden: Gradual improvement with elevated unemployment – Nordea

Nordea’s Anna Westlund reports that Swedish employment has been rising since early 2025, with BAS and LFS data both showing a positive trend.

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Colombia National Jobless Rate: 10.9% (January) vs 8%

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United States Construction Spending (MoM) fell from previous 0.5% to -0.2% in November

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United States Construction Spending (MoM) meets forecasts (0.3%) in December

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United States Construction Spending (MoM): 0.3% (November) vs previous 0.5%

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United States Chicago PMI came in at 57.7, above forecasts (52.8) in February

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US: Jobs data and Fed timing – ING

ING’s James Knightley expects upcoming US ISM surveys to soften from January’s strength, reflecting weaker regional Federal Reserve signals.

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AUD: Strong credit growth but policy view unchanged – BNY

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes Australia’s January financial aggregates show total credit up 0.5% month-on-month and 7.7% year-on-year, with housing and business credit both accelerating on an annual basis. Broad money growth has also picked up.

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Canada GDP contracts 0.6% in Q4 vs. 0% expected

Canada's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted at an annualized rate of 0.6% (QoQ) in the fourth quarter, Statistics Canada reported on Friday. This print followed the 2.4% growth recorded in the previous quarter and came in below the market expectation of 0%.

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US annual PPI inflation declines to 2.9% in January vs. 2.6% expected

Producer inflation in the United States, as measured by the change in the Producer Price Index (PPI), declined to 2.9% on a yearly basis in January from 3% in December, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. This reading came in above the market expectation of 2.6%.

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United States Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.9%, above forecasts (2.6%) in January

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United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) came in at 3.6%, above forecasts (3%) in January

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United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) above expectations (0.3%) in January: Actual (0.8%)

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United States Producer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.5% above expectations (0.3%) in January

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Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) above expectations (0.1%) in December: Actual (0.2%)

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