Notícias

EUR/HUF: MNB is expected to hold rates – ING

ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky says Hungary remains central in Central and Eastern European (CEE), with the first post‑election central bank of Hungary, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) meeting expected to leave rates at 6.25% while focusing on updated forward guidance.

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Forex Today: BoJ maintains status quo, US-Iran uncertainty persists

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, April 28:

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Asian FX: Oil risk threatens recovery momentum – OCBC

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note most Asian FX have firmed, led by MYR, THB and TWD, helped by Iran’s proposal on Hormuz. However, elevated Oil prices and constrained energy passthrough pose risks to demand and could restrain high‑beta, Oil‑sensitive Asian FX.

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Equities: Rally remains selective and regionally split – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team reports that equities continue to grind higher, led by US and tech names, while cyclicals outperform and consumer staples lag. The rally is highly selective across sectors and regions, with US markets outperforming Europe.

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Spain Retail Sales (YoY) up to 4.1% in March from previous 2.2%

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Spain Unemployment Survey came in at 10.83%, above expectations (9.8%) in 1Q

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Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) rose from previous 1.8B to 9.3B in March

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Japan’s Katayama: Economy rebounding moderately, outlook calls for caution

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that the economy is rebounding moderately with sustained wage growth momentum, but the outlook calls for caution.

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United Kingdom BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) came in at 1% below forecasts (1.5%) in April

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Asian FX: Oil shock and AI cushion – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay, Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim argue that the war in Iran has delivered a stagflationary shock to Asia, pushing inflation forecasts higher while leaving growth risks skewed to the downside.

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Japan Unemployment Rate came in at 2.7%, above expectations (2.6%) in March

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Japan Jobs / Applicants Ratio meets expectations (1.18) in March

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Singapore: Electronics strength offsets petrochemical drag – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Jester Koh highlights that Singapore’s industrial production rose strongly in March, lifting estimated 1Q26 GDP growth.

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Bank of Japan expected to hold rates amid Iran war-driven inflation fears

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Tuesday, at around 3:00 GMT. The BoJ is widely expected to deliver a hawkish hold, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75% while also hinting at a willingness to hike rates.

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CNY: Supported by exports and geopolitics – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s FX team highlights that CNY is the only Asian currency stronger against the Dollar since late February, helped by robust exports and policy support.

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USD/PHP: Political rift hits BSP – BNY

BNY's Bob Savage reports that the central bank of the Philippines, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Eli Remolona faces a legal complaint tied to disclosures in an impeachment probe involving the vice president.

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South Korea BOK Manufacturing BSI increased to 72 in May from previous 71

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US: Growth normalizes as Iran shock fades – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir project output growth gradually slowing to potential by late 2026 as Iran-related stagflationary risks keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) cautious.

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India: IGB view stays neutral – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered Bank economists Anubhuti Sahay, Saurav Anand and Nagaraj Kulkarni assess Indian states’ finances, projecting the aggregate FY27 fiscal deficit at 2.9% of GDP, similar to FY26.

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Germany: Reform push shapes macro outlook – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank economists Marion Muehlberger and Ursula Walther argue that Germany’s new reform drive under Finance Minister Klingbeil could gradually improve growth prospects and sentiment.

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CEE FX: Stable ranges as data cluster looms – ING

ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky expects Central and Eastern European (CEE) FX to stay broadly stable this week despite volatile rates and global headlines.

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Fed: Policy on hold as Iran shock lingers – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the Fed funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at the April Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with Chair Powell maintaining a neutral stance on future policy.

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BoJ: Cautious stance and inflation guidance in focus – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that earlier market surveys showed a strong chance of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike this week, but Governor Ueda’s lack of clear hints at IMF/World Bank meetings shifted expectations to June.

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United States 2-Year Note Auction declined to 3.812% from previous 3.936%

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United States 5-Year Note Auction declined to 3.955% from previous 3.98%

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Iran's Araghchi: US requesting negotiations because they have not achieved any objectives

In a post on published on his Telegram account, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that United States (US) President Donald Trump is requesting negotiations because the US has not achieved any of its objectives.

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BoC: Policy hold view after turnover – Rabobank

Rabobank strategists Molly Schwartz and Christian Lawrence expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its overnight policy rate at 2.25% through year-end, with no change anticipated at the April 29 meeting.

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ECB: June hike risk grows on energy shock – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered strategists Christopher Graham and John Davies expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep the deposit rate at 2.00% on 30 April, citing a wait‑for‑data stance as the Middle East conflict evolves.

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United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index down to -2.3 in April from previous -0.2

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Fed: One more cut still expected – Rabobank

Rabobank strategists reiterate its view that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to cut rates again this year, even as United States (US) Treasury yields edge higher on persistent inflation concerns.

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