Nomura’s European Economics team, led by Andrzej Szczepaniak and colleagues, notes that the ECB delivered a 25bp hike to a 2.25% depo rate and unveiled more hawkish forecasts.

TD Securities economists expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% with a 7-2 vote as Greene joins Pill in calling for a hike. They highlight persistent inflation pressures, upside risks from energy and airfare, and softer demand.

United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations dipped from previous 4.8% to 4.6% in June

United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation declined to 3.4% in June from previous 3.9%

United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index came in at 49.3, above forecasts (44.3) in June

United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index above expectations (46) in June: Actual (48.9)

National Bank of Canada (NBC) strategists assess how Kevin Warsh may reshape Federal Reserve (Fed) policy.

ING’s Chris Turner notes that a potential US-Iran peace deal has softened the Dollar, but DXY is still holding firm. He highlights that energy supply losses and inflation risks persist unless Oil flows freely through the Strait of Hormuz.

Nordea’s Jan von Gerich highlights that the ECB delivered a widely expected 25bp hike and is likely to continue tightening, with the next move expected in July. He argues that broadening inflation pressures mean lower energy prices alone will not ease ECB concerns.

Canada Capacity Utilization remains unchanged at 78.5% in 1Q

Commerzbank’s Bernd Weidensteiner and Christoph Balz argue that Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Reserve meeting is unlikely to deliver an immediate rate cut, given elevated PCE inflation and a still‑solid labor market.

India Bank Loan Growth climbed from previous 16.2% to 17.7% in May 18

Iran’s IRNA news agency releases the major terms of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) discussed with the United States (US). Earlier a report from Bloomberg showed that the MoU will be signed in Geneva on Sunday.

Nordea’s Jan von Gerich expects Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting on 17 June to deliver a more neutral policy stance, with earlier projected rate cuts likely removed from the dot plot and some hike calls appearing.

The University of Michigan (UoM) will release the preliminary estimate of June’s Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.

Deutsche Bank’s European economists highlight that the ECB delivered its first rate hike since 2023, lifting the deposit rate to 2.25% and pairing it with hawkish messaging from President Lagarde.

India’s Consumer Price Index data for May has come in at an annualized pace of 3.93% in May, slower than 4% estimates, but higher than the previous reading of 3.48%.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights that President Karol Nawrocki has rapidly accumulated a record number of vetoes, blocking key legislation on crypto assets, taxation and healthcare. Ghose expects Nawrocki to continue obstructing reforms until the 2027 elections.

China M2 Money Supply (YoY) came in at 8.6%, above forecasts (8.5%) in May

According to a Bloomberg report, senior officials have said that the United States (US) and Iran are edging closer to signing an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as the Group of Seven (G7) world leaders are set to meet next week.

BNY’s Bob Savage analyzes U.S. equities using iFlow data, highlighting declining institutional cash balances, elevated valuations and record IPO issuance such as SpaceX.

Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja expects the Bank of England (BoE) to leave Bank Rate at 3.75% at the June meeting, with a likely 7–2 vote and Huw Pill and Megan Greene backing a hike.

Societe Generale notes that the Government of India and Reserve Bank of India (RBI) are prioritising capital inflows to support the Indian Rupee (INR) rather than tightening policy.

Here is what you need to know on Friday, June 12:

United Kingdom Consumer Inflation Expectations increased to 4% from previous 3.2%

United Kingdom Consumer Inflation Expectations: 3.5% vs 3.2%

Iran’s Mehr news agency has reported in the European trade on Friday that the draft with the United States (US) regarding the permanent peace deal needs finalization by relevant authorities.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Martin Kocher stated in the European trade on Friday that it is too early to discuss what the central bank will do in the July meeting.

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux and colleagues note Brent has fallen below $90 per barrel after US-Iran deal hopes and President Trump’s cancelled strikes. Their technical view highlights a sustained downtrend after losing the 50-DMA and breaking an ascending trend line.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, Gabriel Makhlouf, said during the European trade on Friday that the central bank needs to act quickly before inflation starts accelerating further.