Societe Generale’s Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem highlight that Brent has surged as US-Iran tensions, Trump’s rhetoric and Houthi blockade threats lift risk premia. Crack spreads in Asia and US have outperformed as refined products stay tighter than crude.

Deutsche Bank strategists analyses China’s AI (Artificial intelligence) ecosystem, noting that Chinese models are rapidly catching up in capability while being priced near mid-tier US systems.

Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) below forecasts ($2060M) in June: Actual ($2M)

Donald Trump opened the week on Truth Social with a promise that every American soldier killed by Iran will be repaid many times over, a directive he says has been passed to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Daniel Caine, and every leader in the military.

The United Kingdom entered a new period of political uncertainty after Rachel Reeves stepped down as Chancellor of the Exchequer as part of the first cabinet reshuffle led by newly appointed Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

Societe Generale’s Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem highlight that Brent has surged as US-Iran tensions, Trump’s rhetoric and Houthi blockade threats lift risk premia. Crack spreads in Asia and US have outperformed as refined products stay tighter than crude.

BNY’s Geoff Yu sees Latin American currencies underpinned by strong balance-of-payments positions and attractive carry, even as global equity nerves rise.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the ECB to leave rates at 2.25% this week after June’s 25 bps hike, maintaining a data-dependent stance without new projections.

Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) Abbey Xu notes that Canadian inflation eased in June, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowing to 2.8% year-over-year and energy prices reversing part of their earlier surge.

TD Securities expects the Federal Reserve to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged through 2026, as inflation stays above target and the labor market stabilizes.

James Smith at ING highlights that UK markets have reacted calmly to Andy Burnham becoming prime minister, with risk premia contained as investors expect no major policy shocks this year.

Canada’s inflation has cooled a tad in June, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.8% from a year earlier, coming in below market expectations and down from the 3.2% increase recorded in May. On a monthly basis, prices declined by 0.4%.

Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) unchanged at 0.2% in June

Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.8%, below expectations (2.9%) in June

Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at -0.4%, below expectations (-0.2%) in June

Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY): 2.1% (June) vs previous 2.2%

Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) fell from previous 0.6% to 0.1% in June

Rabobank’s Jane Foley notes that softer Norwegian inflation has tempered expectations for further Norges Bank tightening, even after May’s 25 bps hike to 4.25%.

Commerzbank’s rates team expects higher oil prices and weak growth signals to shape Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. A July rate hike is effectively ruled out, while markets have fully priced in another 25bp move in September.

TD Securities’ Julie Ioffe expects United Kingdom (UK) headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to slow to 2.7% year-on-year in June, in line with consensus but below Bank of England (BoE) projections, as lower fuel prices offset sticky Services. Core CPI is seen at 2.6% and Services at 3.6%.

According to a senior Iranian official, mediators have proposed a 10-day cessation of strikes to find ways to revive the interim deal between the United States (US) and Iran.

United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister (PM) Keir Starmer, the seventh PM since Britain’s exit from the European Union (EU), delivers his resignation to King Charles at Buckingham Palace.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Japan’s June Consumer Price Index (CPI) to edge higher across headline and core measures, with core ex fresh food and energy steady at 1.8%.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes that escalating US-Iran tensions are driving risk-off sentiment, overshadowing a light Central and Eastern Europe data calendar.

Société Générale identifies the Hungarian forint as July’s main Central and Eastern European (CEE) laggard, with EUR/HUF moving back above 363 as markets anticipate another 25bp central bank of Hungary Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) rate cut to 5.75%.

Esmaeil Baghaei Hamaneh, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran, said during the European trading session on Monday that Tehran pursues war and diplomacy based on its national interests when asked whether the door to talks with the United States (US) was now closed, Reuters repor

AUD/JPY rises after two days of losses, trading around 113.60 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross appreciates as the Australian Dollar (AUD) holds gains following the release of the interest rate decision by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad looks for Canada June headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to slow to 2.9% year-on-year, with core measures near 2%.

ING’s Chris Turner writes that Sterling has benefited from expectations Andy Burnham will appoint a fiscally cautious chancellor, alongside stale short positioning and M&A-related flows into United Kingdom (UK) equities.

EUR/CAD remains in negative territory after paring daily losses, trading around 1.6030 during the early European hours on Monday. The currency cross depreciates as the Euro (EUR) struggles following the release of Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) data.