United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions up to £-102.1K from previous £-105.7K

Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions down to €1.1K from previous €30.2K

United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions climbed from previous $181.3K to $194K

United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions declined to $-37.6K from previous $-35.4K

Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions dipped from previous ¥-146.1K to ¥-155.1K

United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions down to 110.5K from previous 114.6K

Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions down to $-17.7K from previous $-13K

BNY’s Geoff Yu stresses that Chinese equities and Chinese Yuan (CNY) remain heavily under-owned versus APAC (Asia-Pacific) peers, with cross-border holdings at very low levels.

Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu analyzes Indonesia’s May 2026 trade data, highlighting the first deficit since the pandemic and a record Oil and Gas shortfall.

European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said on Monday that the Eurozone is not back to a pre-war situation, even after the recent decline in Oil prices.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that forward guidance can strengthen the impact of monetary policy when used properly, but warned that it can also become problematic if it limits policymakers’ flexibility.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang indicates USD/CNH has seen a slight softening in momentum but remains confined to a narrow intraday band of 6.7800–6.7930. Over the next 1–3 weeks, the bank expects range trading between 6.7750 and 6.8080 as earlier Dollar strength has faded.

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that crowded exposure to Latin American (LatAm) bonds is unwinding as higher U.S. yields drive a domestic repricing of real-rate risks. The bank sees flows rotating toward regional equities and maintains a constructive tactical view on Latin American carry.

TD Securities projects US output growth to move sideways in 2026, slightly below trend, with Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 2.0% Q4/Q4 and unemployment around 4.3%. The Iran conflict and an oil shock pose stagflationary risks, while AI and high-income consumers support demand.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Marco Wagner notes that German manufacturing orders rose 1.9% in May, or 1.0% excluding large orders, pointing to an upward trend. He argues this supports a moderate recovery in German industry and a slight recovery in the broader German economy after a likely small Q2 decline.

Economic activity in the US service sector lost some momentum in June, with the ISM Services PMI easing to 54.0 from 54.5 in the previous month, matching analysts' expectations.

United States ISM Services Prices Paid down to 67.7 in June from previous 71.3

United States ISM Services PMI in line with expectations (54) in June

United States ISM Services Employment Index: 51.2 (June) vs 47.9

United States ISM Services New Orders Index fell from previous 57.3 to 55.1 in June

United States S&P Global Composite PMI registered at 51.9, below expectations (52.2) in June

United States S&P Global Services PMI came in at 51.2, below expectations (51.4) in June

TD Securities’ Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect the Federal Reserve to keep the Fed funds rate on hold throughout 2026 as US growth moves sideways and inflation stays elevated.

ING’s Francesco Pesole expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to deliver a 25bp ‘insurance’ hike in July, taking the policy rate to 2.50%, despite the sharp drop in Oil prices.

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that EUR/USD recently fell below its prior 1‑month forecast of 1.15, prompting a reassessment of projections.

Societe Generale notes that Sterling has been the strongest G10 currency since the Makerfield by-election, helped by a still-sizeable but reduced speculative short base.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes weaker US data and a softer Dollar helped Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies, but focus now shifts to local inflation and central banks.

EUR/JPY continues to gain ground for the second successive day, trading around 185.30 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross remains stronger as the Euro (EUR) holds ground following the release of key economic data from the Eurozone and Germany.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists Nathan Janzen and Abbey Xu note the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) Q2 Business Outlook Survey will show how firms reacted to recent energy price volatility, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) previously near US$100.

United Kingdom S&P Global Construction PMI below expectations (40) in June: Actual (38.4)