UOB economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting note Malaysia’s May headline inflation rose to 2.0% year-on-year, the highest since July 2024, driven by Food, Housing, Utilities and Transport. Year-to-date inflation of 1.7% supports their full-year 2.0% forecast.

MUFG’s Michael Wan notes that Asian currencies should benefit from stronger regional growth differentials versus the US, particularly in AI-related export economies such as South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia and Singapore.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD remains supported around 1.29 as the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER) trades near the top of its band, implying the pair should hover close to this level.

BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that iFlow Carry has turned negatively significant for the first time in 2026, signalling ongoing unwinding of carry trades but also a potential contrarian opportunity.

National Bank of Canada's (NBC) Matthieu Arseneau and Alexandra Ducharme note that Canadian headline inflation rose to 3.2% in May, above the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) target range, driven mainly by higher gasoline and food prices.

TD Securities, led by Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir, reports that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has shifted hawkishly and is expected to keep policy rates on hold through 2026 and 2027.

Eurozone Consumer Confidence came in at -17.7, below expectations (-17.5) in June

TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek highlight that crude Oil and petroleum product flows from the Middle East have rebounded sharply, but this surge is seen as temporary as trapped Gulf barrels clear.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that policymakers are not yet seeing signs that the latest inflation shock requires a more aggressive policy response, even as geopolitical tensions add fresh uncertainty to the Eurozone outlook.

Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) climbed from previous 0.1% to 0.2% in May

Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY): 2.2% (May) vs 2.1%

Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 1%, above expectations (0.7%) in May

Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (3%) in May: Actual (3.2%)

Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) increased to 0.6% in May from previous 0.2%

Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Teeuwe Mevissen highlights that Oil and broader energy markets remain central to the global macro backdrop, tightly linked to Middle East tensions.

BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation and the likely appointment of Andy Burnham as Prime Minister are largely priced into U.K. assets.

TD Securities strategists expect Canada’s May Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise, with headline inflation projected at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month, driven by higher energy prices and seasonal factors.

Deutsche Bank strategists report that after a hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) under new Chair Kevin Warsh, they now forecast two 25 bps Fed hikes in 2026, likely in September and December, taking the fed funds rate to around 4.1%.

Deutsche Bank strategists note that Brent Oil has reversed earlier gains as progress in US–Iran talks reduces fears over disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz.

AUD/JPY holds gains after experiencing volatility, trading around 113.10 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross remains heavily bid as the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to lose ground to widespread carry-trade activity.

United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Keir Starmer announces his resignation and says that nominations for new contender will open on July 9.

Michael Wan at MUFG stresses that local factors matter for Asia FX, focusing on current account deficit currencies reliant on external funding.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Governor of the Bank of Spain, José Luis Escrivá, said during the European trading session on Monday that the central bank needs to monitor for second-round effects on wages.

Turkey Consumer Confidence: 87.9 (June) vs 85.8

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that the Russian Central Bank surprised markets by cutting rates only 25 bps to 14.25%, instead of the 50 bps expected, signalling a hawkish stance and caution on further easing.

EUR/CAD extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 1.6260 during the Asian hours on Monday.

Danske Research Team observes that equities fell on Friday, led by Europe, as renewed concerns around Iran and stalled talks weighed on sentiment and drove a defensive rotation.

Asian stocks kick off the new week on a downbeat note, though signs of progress in US-Iran pace negotiations eased concerns over a potential escalation in geopolitical tensions and limited deeper losses.

Netherlands, The Consumer Confidence Adj: -39 (June) vs -46

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, recovers its recent losses from the previous trading day and is hovering around 100.80 during the Asian hours on Monday.