ING economists Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song warn that upside inflation risks are re-emerging for the Philippine Peso (PHP), driven by recovering Oil prices and expectations of a strong El Niño that could spark a food-price shock. Rising global rice and fertiliser prices add to pressures.

The St. Louis Fed President, Alberto Musalem, stressed that “inflation is too high” and that it’s “critical” that monetary policy focuses on bringing down inflation.

Societe Generale economist Kunal Kundu notes Indonesia’s 2Q26 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 5.3% year-on-year, beating the bank’s 5.1% forecast, but warns the composition is less reassuring.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research, led by economists Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Sathit Talaengsatya, analyzes Thailand’s July CPI undershoot driven by lower fuel prices while core inflation edges higher.

ING economists Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song flag renewed policy uncertainty for the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) after the surprise resignation of Bank Indonesia’s (BI) governor, just as sentiment toward Indonesian assets was improving.

Scotiabank’s team notes the Pound is fractionally weaker versus the Dollar, with fundamentals less supportive as yield spreads soften. However, sentiment is improving as markets fade earlier political concerns following PM Burnham’s arrival and stronger-than-expected construction PMI.

UOB’s economists highlight that Thailand’s inflation outlook is shaped by supply-side factors and external variables such as Oil and USD/THB.

US Treasury yields climb along the curve as the Oman-Iran deal, which banned US and Israeli ships, whether military or civilian, from entering the Persian Gulf, drives crude prices higher, and as traders await the latest employment report.

Standard Chartered economists Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding highlight that China’s urban surveyed unemployment rate has remained in a 5.0-5.4% range over the past three years, yet broader labour underutilisation has risen.

TradingKey - De acordo com o Financial Times, pessoas próximas ao novo presidente do Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, disseram que ele admitiu a pessoas ao seu redor que de fato houve erros durante suas

Rabobank’s Stefan Koopman analyses United Kingdom demand prospects under Prime Minister Burnham’s shift from “securonomics” to “vibonomics”. The report argues that elevated household saving and weak confidence leave scope for a temporary consumption boost if sentiment improves.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is balancing solid long-term fiscal fundamentals against near-term growth headwinds and shifting central bank expectations.

United States Wholesale Inventories came in at 0.2% below forecasts (0.3%) in June

Standard Chartered’s Christopher Graham analyzes recent United Kingdom (UK) polling, noting Labour has regained a lead over Reform UK and Conservatives after Andy Burnham became prime minister.

TradingKey - O Bureau of Labor Statistics dos EUA divulgará o relatório de empregos não agrícolas (payroll) de julho às 8h30 (horário do Leste) do dia 7 de agosto. O foco atual do mercado não está ape

TD Securities economists expect United States (US) July Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) to return to trend after June’s one-off weakness.

Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $720.3B vs previous $732.1B

According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance rose marginally to 199K for the week ending August 1.

United States Unit Labor Costs registered at 1.3%, below expectations (2%) in 2Q

United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.801M, above expectations (1.79M) in July 24

United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 198.75K (July 31) vs previous 202.75K

United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 199K below forecasts (202K) in July 31

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects the Czech National Bank (CNB) to keep its policy rate at 3.75%, framing June’s hike as fine-tuning rather than a new cycle. With headline and core inflation still within target, CNB can wait but must avoid sounding dovish.

ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky says July Czech inflation at 1.7% year-on-year should have limited impact on the Czech National Bank (CNB) meeting. He expects rates to stay at 3.75%, with guidance leaning more dovish than markets.

Nomura strategists highlight that Swedish CPIF ex-energy inflation surprised to the upside in July even as headline CPIF slowed, largely due to government fuel duty cuts and public transport subsidies.

Deutsche Bank strategists say the global equity rally lost momentum near record highs as technology shares weakened. The S&P 500 edged lower and the Nasdaq underperformed, with AMD and semiconductor stocks retreating after recent gains.

Standard Chartered’s Nicholas Chia expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep the cash rate at 4.35% at its 11 August meeting, with no further hikes this year. Q2 core inflation and short-term expectations have eased, while the labour market has softened.

Danske Research Team highlights that global equities have gained about 5% over five sessions, with cyclicals and growth outperforming defensives and value, pointing to a tech-driven move.

The USD/CAD pair USD/CAD holds steady around 1.4015 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Traders await a possible US-Iran deal, which could give direction to the pair. The US Initial Jobless Claims report is due later on Thursday. 

Germany's Factory Orders rose in June, suggesting that the country’s manufacturing sector activity gained momentum, according to the official data published by the Federal Statistics Office on Thursday.