Notícias

Equities: Oil shock and tech earnings hit equities – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell sharply as surging Oil prices and stagflation fears weighed on risk assets. Weak post‑earnings reactions in Tesla and Alphabet dragged the Mag 7 index to its biggest daily loss since 2025.

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Russian Ruble: CBR seen holding rate despite pressure to cut – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects Russia’s central bank to keep its key rate at 14.25%, despite political and economic pressure for a cut. Surging inflation expectations, higher Oil and commodity prices, and accelerating Consumer Price Index (CPI) argue against easing.

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British Pound steadies against Japanese Yen following outperformance in UK Retail Sales

GBP/JPY remains calm after six days of losses, trading around 218.20 during the early European hours on Friday. The currency cross holds its ground as the British Pound (GBP) receives support from the release of stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales data.

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ECB's Kocher: Don't see evidence of second-round effects

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Martin Kocher said on Friday that he doesn’t see any hard evidence of second-round effects, but the central bank will act if the inflation outlook deteriorates. 

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Indonesian Rupiah advances as US Dollar struggles despite increasing risk aversion

USD/IDR depreciates after registering over 0.5% gains in the previous day, trading around 18,020 during the Asian hours on Friday. However, the pair may see upward momentum following Bank Indonesia's (BI) unexpected decision to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.75% in July.

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Brent: Conflict risks keep prices supported – ING

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Brent has broken above $100/bbl as Middle East tensions escalate and supply risks mount. They highlight threats to flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, as well as disruptions to Kazakh exports.

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United Kingdom Retail Sales climb 1.0% MoM in June vs. -0.3% expected

Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, in the United Kingdom (UK) climbed 1.0% month-over-month (MoM) in June after rising by 1.2% in May, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Friday.

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Asian stocks decline on Trump's tariffs, US-Iran tension; South Korea's KOSPI underperform

Asian stock markets fell across the board on Friday as intensifying US-Iran conflict and US President Donald Trump's new tariffs temper investors' appetite for riskier assets. Japan’s Nikkei N225 is down nearly 3% while South Korea's KOSPI declined over 4.5%, underperforming broader markets.

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ECB’s Nagel: Central bank is in a good position to respond to surging energy prices

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council Member and President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, said on Friday that the central bank is in a good position to respond to surging energy prices.

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India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data

Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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Japan’s Katayama says ready to act appropriately on currency shifts whenever necessary

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama delivered a verbal intervention on Friday, saying that authorities prepared to take decisive steps on foreign exchange.

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US President Donald Trump imposes new tariffs on dozens of trade partners 

The United States (US) will impose new tariffs of between 10% and 12.5% on imports from most major trading partners, its biggest move yet to reconstruct US President Donald Trump’s tariff wall that was pierced by the Supreme Court, Bloomberg reported on Thursday. 

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US military launches 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iranian military targets

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said it is attacking Iran for the 13th consecutive night, the Guardian reported on Friday. The US military stated that this action aims to hold Iran accountable and diminish threats from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to commercial shipping.

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Gold slumps to near $4,050 as Middle East conflict fuels inflation worries

Gold price (XAU/USD) faces some selling pressure to around $4,050 during the early Asian session on Friday.

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Japan’s National CPI climbs 1.7% YoY in June, Core CPI rises as expected

Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.7% YoY in June, compared to the previous reading of 1.5%, according to the latest data released by the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday.

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Australia's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rises to 51.7 in July

The preliminary reading of Australia's S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 51.7 in July versus 51.5 prior, the latest data published by S&P Global showed on Friday.

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Chinese Yuan: Upside bias toward 6.7600 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann expect USD/CNH to remain in a narrow consolidation between 6.7680 and 6.7780 intraday after a lacklustre session.

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Indonesian Rupiah: BI may still need to tighten – MUFG

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan reports that Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate at 5.75%, surprising expectations for a hike, as recent Rupiah stabilization allowed policymakers to stay on hold.

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Singapore Dollar: Sideways range holds against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann expect USD/SGD to remain directionless in the near term, with intraday trading confined to a tight 1.2900–1.2925 band. Over the coming weeks, the pair is seen oscillating in a broader 1.2875–1.2955 range as earlier downside momentum has faded.

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Indonesian Rupiah: BI uses incentives over hikes – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay reports Bank Indonesia kept the BI Rate at 5.75%, choosing targeted capital-flow incentives over further tightening to support the Indonesian Rupiah. BI cut hedging costs and improved macroprudential liquidity tools, echoing RBI’s playbook.

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United States: PCE Methodology tweaks seen as marginal – TD Securities

TD Securities economists Eli Nir and Oscar Munoz analyze upcoming BEA methodology changes to United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation for portfolio management, legal services, and computer software & accessories.

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European Central Bank: Hiking cycle continues at slower pace – Nordea

Nordea strategists Jan von Gerich, Tuuli Koivu and Anders Svendsen note that the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its deposit rate at 2.25% but signalled further tightening. They still forecast three additional 25bp hikes, now at a quarterly pace, taking the deposit rate to 3% by March 2027.

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Federal Reserve: Hike pricing questioned – TD Securities

TD Securities’ Gennadiy Goldberg and Molly Brooks note that market pricing for Fed hikes has risen alongside higher Oil prices and US-Iran tensions, but they judge a July move as unlikely.

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Lagarde speech: Some asked whether we should consider a hike

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

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Lagarde speech: Energy shock could intensify further

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

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United Kingdom: Risks for Sterling – ING

ING’s economists describe United Kingdom (UK) public finances as strained by rising spending pressures and high debt interest, despite ongoing fiscal consolidation via frozen tax thresholds and falling gilt issuance.

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Lagarde speech: Indicators suggest economic activity will remain modest

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

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United States weekly Initial Jobless Claims decline to 187K vs. 212K expected

There were 187,000 Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending July 18, the US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday. This print followed the previous week's reading of 209,000 and came in much better than the market expectation of 212,000.

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Japanese Yen: Gradual appreciation path after extended weakness – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that the Japanese Yen remains historically weak, with USD/JPY above 162 and EUR/JPY near 186, but still forecasts gradual appreciation over the coming quarters.

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Mexico 1st half-month Inflation came in at 0.07%, below expectations (0.1%) in July

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