ING’s Carsten Brzeski argues that the European Central Bank is being guided by its 2022 inflation experience rather than current data, with headline Eurozone inflation still moderate and survey-based expectations easing.

South Africa Manufacturing Production Index (YoY) declined to -2.9% in April from previous 0.9%

Michael Pfister at Commerzbank notes the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept rates at 2.25% and sees little impetus for near-term tightening given easing core inflation and a weak real economy. Market pricing now reflects only one hike by December.

Ireland HICP (MoM) came in at -0.2%, below expectations (-0.1%) in May

Ireland Consumer Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 3.7% to 3.6% in May

Ireland Consumer Price Index (MoM) down to -0.1% in May from previous 0.5%

Ireland HICP (YoY) meets forecasts (3.5%) in May

Rabobank’s Molly Schwartz and Christian Lawrence review the latest Bank of Canada (BoC) decision, noting policymakers kept the overnight rate at 2.25% in June. They highlight ongoing risks from high energy prices and prolonged inflation, alongside a technical recession.

South Africa Business Confidence Index declined to 123.6 in April from previous 131.3

South Africa Business Confidence Index dipped from previous 131.3 to 124.1 in April

Commerzbank’s Erik Liem expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to deliver a fully priced 25bp hike, leaving markets focused on guidance for the path of rates beyond summer.

Deutsche Bank highlights that the Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% but stressed flexibility. Governor Macklem indicated that sustained higher energy prices could require consecutive rate hikes, while potential US trade restrictions might instead justify rate cuts.

Iranian Foreign Ministry has condemned overnight US strikes on Tehran, saying the attacks have rendered the ceasefire as “practically meaningless”, The Guardian reported.

Rabobank’s Global Strategist Michael Every argues that with war risks in the Middle East, the European Central Bank (ECB) faces greater dangers from inaction than from tightening too far.

According to a report from CNN, a diplomatic source has confirmed that talks between the United States (US) and Iran towards a permanent peace deal are still on track.

The Governor of Iran's Sirik county, an administrative division in Iran's Hormozgan province, announces during the European trading session on Thursday that the United States (US) projectile hit a cargo boat in the Gulf of Oman, Mehr News reported.

EUR/CAD recovers its recent losses registered in the previous day, trading around 1.6110 during the early European hours on Thursday. The currency cross appreciates as the Euro (EUR) receives support ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy decision due later in the day.

Danske Research Team expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.25%, in line with consensus. With the June move fully priced, they see market attention shifting to communication on future policy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to announce its monetary policy decision at 12:15 GMT following its June meeting. The Frankfurt-based institution is widely expected to raise its key interest rates by 25 basis points, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.25% from 2%.

Danske Research Team highlights another weak session for global equities, with major indices down and a defensive rotation within sectors. Materials, industrials and technology underperformed, led by semiconductors.

USD/IDR extends gains for the second consecutive day, trading around 17,970 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair holds ground as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) struggles following the domestic Retail Sales data release.

Israeli military says home front command issued early warning after launches from Lebanon toward northern Israel.

Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations declined to 5.5% in June from previous 5.6%

The Iranian military announced in a statement that it had launched a drone operation against the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain, in response to the violation of the ceasefire and US military attacks on areas in southern Iran, Reuters reported on Thursday. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends gains for the second successive day, trading around $90.70 per barrel during the Asian hours on Thursday.

"Ending soon" did not survive the day.

Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index (QoQ) below forecasts (4.2) in 2Q: Actual (-1.8)

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks: ¥-701B (June 5) vs previous ¥-491.2B

United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance registered at -34%, below expectations (-31%) in May

United States (US) President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that a secret US military operation helped secure commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, allowing more than 100 million barrels of Oil to reach global markets amid ongoing tensions involving Iran.