Notícias

Singapore Dollar: Strong NODX but USD still drives USD/SGD – OCBC

OCBC’s Christopher Wong highlights that Singapore’s August NODX surged 46.2% year-on-year, far above consensus, with electronics exports jumping on AI-related demand and broad-based strength across markets.

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Chinese Yuan: Pre-summit support and firmer bias – DBS

Chang Wei Liang at DBS Group Research highlights that USD/CNH is easing toward 6.70 despite a stronger Dollar, with the Renminbi (RMB) supported by a lower USD/CNY fixing below 6.76.

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Singapore Dollar: Range trade persists against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes that USD/SGD has slipped into a short-term range phase after a sharp pullback, with intraday trading expected between 1.2735 and 1.2775.

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Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) above forecasts ($2055M) in August: Actual ($2187M)

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Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions increased to €-27K from previous €-42.6K

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United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions down to $-100.5K from previous $-76K

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United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions down to $230.3K from previous $232K

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Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions: $-38.9K vs previous $-34.9K

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United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions fell from previous 136.6K to 135.9K

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Malaysian Ringgit: External pressure but scope for reversal – OCBC

Christopher Wong at OCBC writes that the Malaysian Ringgit weakened during Thursday’s Asian session on a firmer US Dollar and higher US Treasury yields after the FOMC, with USD/MYR briefly trading above 4.10 in an orderly move.

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US 10-Year back at 5% as global tightening wave pushes

US Treasury yields rose on Friday, boosted mainly by the Federal Reserve’s decision to increase rates on Wednesday, while the Bank of Japan added its name to the list of major central banks focused on preventing inflation from getting out of control.

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Eurozone: Energy shock reshapes outlook – Rabobank

Rabobank strategists Bas van Geffen and Elwin de Groot highlight that sharply higher Oil and natural gas forecasts will lift headline Eurozone inflation by about 0.5 percentage points in 2026 and 2027.

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Fed’s Schmid supports rate hike as inflation broadens beyond 3%

On Friday, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said he supported the rate hike, as “recent data suggest inflation trending above 3%.” Schmid added that tightening policy is a step toward achieving the Fed’s 2% goal and that inflation has broadened across a set of goods and services and that the

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Swiss Franc: Policy rate seen on hold – ING

ING economist Charlotte de Montpellier expects the Swiss National Bank to keep its policy rate at 0% next Thursday and over the coming quarters, as Swiss growth has surprised on the upside but inflation remains subdued.

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Bank of Canada: Rate path risks tilt earlier – RBC

Nathan Janzen at Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) notes that markets are focused on whether the Bank of Canada (BoC) will raise rates in October after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) move.

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European Central Bank: Quarterly hikes still baseline – Nordea

Nordea’s team sees the European Central Bank delivering two more 25bp rate hikes, in December and March 2027, despite more aggressive market pricing.

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British Pound: QT overhaul supports Gilt curve and Pound – MUFG

Derek Halpenny at MUFG highlights that the Bank of England left rates unchanged, but signals suggest a hike is likely in November as most of the majority voting bloc see tightening as needed.

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European Central Bank: One more hike then pause – Rabobank

Rabobank strategists Bas van Geffen and Elwin de Groot expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise the deposit facility rate by 25bp to 2.75% in December, driven by higher energy price forecasts.

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Federal Reserve: Further hikes supported by resilient economy – Nordea

Nordea strategists expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to deliver two additional rate hikes, arguing that resilient United States (US) growth, persistent inflation and continued labour-market strength suggest monetary policy is not yet sufficiently restrictive.

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Mexico Private Spending (YoY) declined to 2.1% in 2Q from previous 2.2%

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Mexico Private Spending (QoQ) up to 0.9% in 2Q from previous -0.8%

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US Dollar: Oil drives Dollar upside risks – ING

ING strategist Francesco Pesole notes that moderating Oil prices have slightly cooled the Dollar’s post-FOMC momentum, but still sees upside risks for the Dollar after the Federal Reserve’s hawkish message.

British Pound: BoE holds but inflation risks linger – OCBC

OCBC strategist Christopher Wong notes that the Bank of England (BoE) kept Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6–3 vote while highlighting a more challenging inflation backdrop, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) seen near 3.75% in Q4 and above 4% in early 2027.

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Bank of Japan: Hawkish path with FX doubts – TD Securities

TD Securities’ Prashant Newnaha notes the Bank of Japan raised its cash rate by 25bps to 1.25%, in line with market expectations, and kept a hawkish framework that points to further hikes, with the next move seen in December.

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ECB’s Lagarde: We'll decide on rates meeting by meeting

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said during the European trading session on Friday that the decision on interest rates by the central bank will be meeting by meeting.

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Czech Koruna: CNB pause before potential November hike – ING

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes that the Czech National Bank (CNB) kept its policy rate at 3.75% with a dovish tone versus market pricing, but ING economists now expect a hike in November due to higher inflation forecasts and elevated global energy prices.

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Equities: Global rally extends with tech leadership – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank highlights a broad-based rebound in global equities following a drop in Oil prices and supportive US data. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ led gains in US stocks, while the STOXX 600 advanced in Europe and major Asian indices, including the Nikkei and KOSPI, moved higher.

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Euro: Dollar weakness delayed as Fed stays hawkish – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that EUR/USD stabilized after the Federal Reserve’s hawkish surprise, with markets now fully pricing another Fed rate hike in December and no cuts until late next year.

Equities: Strong rebound supported by earnings growth – Danske Bank

Danske Bank’s Danske Research Team reports a strong rebound in global equities, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Stoxx 600 and Kospi all posting solid gains despite a recent Fed hike and further tightening priced.

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United Kingdom Retail Sales unexpectedly rise 0.5% MoM in August vs. -0.2% estimates

Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, in the United Kingdom (UK) rises 0.5% month-over-month (MoM) in August after declining at a similar pace in July, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Friday.

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