Nordea’s Jan von Gerich argues that the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to continue tightening policy, with the outlook heavily dependent on Middle East developments and energy prices.

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change registered at 61B above expectations (60B) in July 3

DBS Group Research economist Eugene Leow warns that shorter-term Singapore Dollar (SGD) rates may face upside pressure despite recent flush liquidity. He notes SGD rates have decoupled from USD rates, with spreads stretched, while Fed hike expectations remain sticky and the USD strong.

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang notes that after a prior rise in USD/CNH, upward momentum has now faded, with the pair expected to trade between 6.7950 and 6.8100 in the near term.

United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) registered at 4.09M, below expectations (4.2M) in June

United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) dipped from previous 3.2% to -2.4% in June

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York President John Williams said in the Future of Market Liquidity and Functioning Workshop in New York on Thursday that inflation remains “far too high,” while stressing that policymakers are actively debating different inflation scenarios as energy prices, artifi

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has trimmed its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0%, with uneven impacts across energy exporters, tech economies and low-income importers, influencing global equities.

ABN AMRO’s Rogier Quaedvlieg highlights that US labour-market conditions are weaker than headline unemployment suggests, as rapidly declining participation is holding the rate down.

DBS Group Research economist Sherilyn Chew notes that renewed geopolitical risk has lifted yields across Asia, but sees Indian G-Secs as offering a tactical opportunity. She argues the India sell-off is mainly macro repricing, with domestic fundamentals and structural demand intact.

ING strategists Michiel Tukker and Benjamin Schroeder note that the Federal Reserve’s June minutes confirmed a more hawkish stance despite an unchanged policy rate.

TD Securities strategists highlight that the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes showed rising concern over inflation risks, even as the United States (US) labor market remains stable.

Russia Central Bank Reserves $ up to $721.7B from previous $715.2B

Geoff Yu at BNY Mellon highlights that Czech National Bank policy expectations have risen alongside the ECB, yet the Czech Koruna is sliding on a nominal effective basis.

The European Central Bank (ECB) released the accounts of its latest monetary policy meeting on Thursday, revealing growing concern among policymakers over persistent inflationary risks.

Societe Generale’s Jan Groen notes that the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes confirmed a hawkish hold, with the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showing an even split between members favoring unchanged or lower rates and those preferring hikes.

According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance shrank to 215K for the week ending July 4.

United States Continuing Jobless Claims remains at 1.814M in June 26

United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average fell from previous 222K to 218.75K in July 3

United States Initial Jobless Claims below forecasts (218K) in July 3: Actual (215K)

Christopher Wong highlights that the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has strengthened after a hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate hike, but higher Oil prices are capping gains.

ING’s Warren Patterson notes that Oil prices fell after the US–Iran Memorandum of Understanding allowed Persian Gulf supply to recover faster than expected, while demand lagged.

Mexico 12-Month Inflation below forecasts (3.52%) in June: Actual (3.37%)

Mexico Headline Inflation below expectations (-0.13%) in June: Actual (-0.27%)

Mexico Core Inflation came in at 0.24%, below expectations (0.31%) in June

TD Securities strategists highlight that the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes showed rising concern over inflation risks, even as the United States (US) labor market remains stable.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky reports that the National Bank of Poland kept a neutral stance, with elevated uncertainty from Middle East tensions and CPI projections above expectations. US–Iran headlines triggered a sell-off in CEE rates and FX, with EUR/HUF jumping 1.2%.

South Africa Manufacturing Production Index (YoY) declined to -4.3% in May from previous -2.9%

Ireland HICP (YoY) below forecasts (3.3%) in June: Actual (3.2%)

Ireland Consumer Price Index (YoY) declined to 3.4% in June from previous 3.6%