United States (US) President Donald Trump said during a press conference at the White House on Tuesday that Washington could intensify its military campaign against Iran, including possible strikes on the underground Pickaxe Mountain site.

Standard Chartered Bank economist Saurav Anand highlights rising inflation risks for India as deficient monsoon rains and persistent El Niño threaten food output. The report notes sowing is down and reservoir levels are low, with pulses, vegetables, sugar and oilseeds most exposed.

New Zealand GDT Price Index climbed from previous -4.9% to 1.5%

ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that Gilts and the Pound saw turbulence as new UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham signalled flexibility on fiscal rules and appointed John Healey as Chancellor.

Societe Generale strategists note that softer June inflation in Canada has stalled the Canadian Dollar’s (CAD) rebound from 1.4250 toward 1.40 against the US Dollar (USD). Failure to reclaim the 50-day moving average around 1.3991 and new US tariffs on Canadian goods complicate the mean-reversion.

United States Redbook Index (YoY) fell from previous 8.2% to 7.8% in July 17

ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey highlight a softening Aluminium supply picture. Global primary output fell in June on both monthly and yearly bases, even as first-half production stayed broadly stable.

Private-sector hiring in the US has further cooled in early July. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 16.5K jobs per week in the four weeks ending July 4.

United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average declined to 16.5K in June 27 from previous 19.75K

Mexico Retail Sales (MoM): -0.6% (May) vs previous 0.8%

Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) fell from previous 4.4% to 1.6% in May

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) to cut rates by 25bp to 5.75%, continuing its easing cycle despite recent FX and rates pressure.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects the central bank of Hungary Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) to cut its base rate by 25bp to 5.75%, continuing June’s easing cycle.

EMEA (Europe, the Middle East, and Africa) strategist Frantisek Taborsky at ING says regional data in Poland and the Czech Republic are constructive, but Central and Eastern European (CEE) FX remains driven by US–Iran tensions and Oil prices.

German ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment arrives at 26.3 in July, beating the estimates of 18.0 and the June reading of 10.5.

Greece Current Account (YoY) increased to €-0.96B in May from previous €-1.389B

A statement from United Kingdom (UK) lawmaker Darren Jones, an ally of former prime minister (PM) Keir Starmer, that the funding source of tax cuts on energy bills, as promised by new PM Andy Burnham, was already unfunded, has pushed political stability optimism under the scanner.

USD/JPY gains ground for the fourth successive day, trading around 162.60 during the European hours on Tuesday. Japanese banks will be closed due to Marine Day bank holiday.

Deutsche Bank strategists report the S&P 500 slipping for a third straight session as geopolitical uncertainty and higher US real yields pressure risk assets.

ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note Brent retreated below $90/bbl as hopes for US–Iran de-escalation offset rising supply risks. They highlight reports of a proposed 10‑day ceasefire and ongoing large divisions between the US and Iran.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur discusses how persistent high Oil and energy prices complicate the Federal Reserve’s stance, with markets only modestly pricing in further tightening.

United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate fell from previous 4.5% to 4.4% in June

United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing declined to £15.989B in June from previous £23.294B

The United Kingdom’s (UK) ILO Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.9% in the three months to May after reporting 4.9% in the previous reading, data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Tuesday. The data came in below the market consensus of 5.0%.

Switzerland Trade Balance fell from previous 6110M to 5224M in June

United Kingdom Employment Change (3M): 147K (May) vs 100K

United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) below expectations (5%) in May: Actual (4.9%)

United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) registered at 4.3%, below expectations (4.5%) in May

United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) meets expectations (3.4%) in May

United Kingdom Claimant Count Change registered at 6.7K, below expectations (28.3K) in June