EUR/USD trades in a narrow range on Monday as traders await clarity on US-Iran negotiations, while signs of stabilization in the US Dollar following the recent intervention-led weakness cap the Euro’s upside.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose analyses Turkey’s June trade figures, highlighting a 26.2% year-on-year widening of the trade deficit to USD 10.4 billion. While exports and imports both rebounded after May’s holiday distortions, imports are running stronger than exports.

USD/CAD trades around 1.4040 on Monday at the time of writing, up 0.14% on the day as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) comes under pressure following a sharp decline in Oil prices.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports USD/JPY plunged in Tokyo after confirmed joint US-Japan intervention to stop the Japanese Yen’s slide, with officials warning they may act again.

Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur reviews the South African Rand (ZAR) after its earlier appreciation against the US Dollar (USD) stalled with the Iran conflict.

BNY’s Geoff Yu expects the Reserve Bank of India to keep the repo rate at 5.25%, relying on macroprudential tools to manage financial stability while INR remains pressured by higher Oil and a stronger Dollar.

USD/JPY steadies on Monday after a sharp decline at the weekly open fuelled speculation that authorities may have stepped into the market again following last week’s coordinated intervention by Japan and the United States (US).

ING’s Chris Turner highlights rare joint US-Japan FX intervention, with Washington participating via the Fed and Japan using the FIMA repo facility to raise Dollars against Treasuries.

The Euro (EUR) ticks higher against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday, but remains capped below the bottom of an ascending channel at the 0.8575 area following Thursday and Friday's declines.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the Japanese Yen has strengthened as Japan and the US conducted joint intervention to counter recent volatility. He highlights planned use of the Federal Reserve’s FIMA Repo Facility, US euro-to-yen reallocations, and Japan’s sizeable FX reserves.

AUD/USD falls to around 0.7000 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.30% on the day, as a rebound in the US Dollar (USD) outweighs the support provided by Chinese economic data for the Australian Dollar (AUD).

NZD/USD trades around 0.5870 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.11% on the day.

Geoff Yu at BNY argues that the lack of further Fed tightening has eased global financial conditions and partially offset European Central Bank (ECB) tightening, but European inflation dynamics remain distinct from the U.S.

The British Pound (GBP) is trimming previous gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, returning to the mid-range of the 1.3400s down from fresh seven-week highs, above 1.3500 earlier on the day.

USD/CHF extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 0.8090 during the European hours on Monday. The pair remains on a stronger footing as the Swiss Franc (CHF) holds onto losses following the release of soft domestic inflation and manufacturing data.

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses recent joint intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) and the United States (US) Treasury to support the Japanese Yen (JPY) and its implications for USD/JPY.

The AUD/JPY cross attracts heavy follow-through selling and touches its lowest level since late March, around the 109.40-109.35 region at the start of a new week.

The Euro (EUR) posts moderate losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, trading at 1.1525 at the time of writing, but standing close to the seven-week highs, at 1.1556 hit earlier on the day.

Commerzbank analyst Michael Pfister examines recent joint US–Japan intervention to support the Japanese Yen. He notes confirmation that US authorities helped Japan and that further actions are possible, but constrained by IMF rules.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades sharply higher against its major currency peers during the European trading session on Monday.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights GBP/USD’s volatile session, with a spike from 1.3401 to 1.3481 and scope for further gains toward 1.3520, though overbought conditions may cap upside.

The AUD/USD pair faces rejection near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and retreats slightly after hitting a fresh high since June 17, around the 0.7050 level earlier this Monday.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) trades lower against its major currency peers at the start of the week. The USD/CHF pair rises 0.15% to near 0.8082 as a market-sentiment revival following the announcement of a ceasefire in the Middle East has diminished the appeal of safe-haven assets.

MUFG’s Michael Wan highlights that the Japanese Yen (JPY) has strengthened sharply, with USD/JPY dropping from around 164 after suspected intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) and confirmed joint action with the US Treasury.

The USD/CAD pair gathers strength to near 1.4030 during the early European session on Monday. A fall in crude oil prices weighs on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD). The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data will be released later on Monday. 

The British Pound (GBP) underperforms its major currency peers, trading 0.1% lower at around 1.3470 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session on Monday.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang observes EUR/USD rebounded sharply after a dip to 1.1453, with scope to extend gains toward 1.1565 intraday, provided it holds above 1.1495.

The USD/JPY pair tumbles to near 156.45 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) climbs amid speculation that Japanese authorities may have intervened to prop up the currency again after coordinated action between the US and Japan last week.

The Indian Rupee (INR) opens strongly against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The USD/INR extends its losing streak for the third trading day, is down 0.25% to near 95.15, the lowest level seen in over three weeks.

EUR/JPY extends its gains for the third successive day, trading around 179.40 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross is extending a bearish near-term tone as price holds beneath both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).