The Greenback has started the week on the back foot, receding to multi-week lows on the back of the generalised improvement in the risk complex, all in response to rising optimism on a potential US-Iran deal.

The Euro advances during Monday’s session, up by 0.37% amid renewed hopes for an agreement between the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and discuss a deal regarding Iran’s uranium enrichment program. The EUR/USD trades at 1.1645 at the time of writing.

GBP/JPY trades with a positive bias on Monday as the British Pound (GBP) outperforms the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid improving market sentiment surrounding a potential US-Iran deal. At the time of writing, the cross is trading around 214.52, up 0.30% on the day.

Scotiabank’s Global FX Strategy team, including Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret, notes that the Canadian Dollar is flat against the Dollar and underperforming other G10 currencies due to its differentiated risk profile.

USD/JPY consolidates on Monday after opening the week with a bearish gap as the US Dollar (USD) comes under pressure amid growing optimism that the United States (US) and Iran are moving closer toward a deal that could eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The British Pound (GBP) clings to opening gains around 1.3500 against the US Dollar (USD) during the late European trading session on Monday. The GBP/USD pair trades higher as the market sentiment remains risk-on due to expectations that the United States (US) and Iran will reach a deal soon.

The Euro (EUR) remains practically flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, capped below the top of last week’s range, in the 1.1660-1.1675 area, with seven-week lows, at 1.1575 relatively close.

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/JPY pulled back sharply after closing at 159.19, with scope to test 158.70 while a sustained drop below that level and 158.40 strong support is seen as unlikely.

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan highlights that higher United States (US) 2-year yields and elevated Brent prices are weighing on Indonesian Rupiah (IDR), Philippine Peso (PHP) and Indian Rupee (INR).

BNY’s Bob Savage argues that South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is likely to lead emerging market tightening as South Africa reverses its easing path and hikes the repo rate back to 7.0%.

ING’s FX Strategist Francesco Pesole expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to deliver a hawkish hold at the 27 May meeting, while warning markets underprice the risk of a surprise hike. He sees new projections signalling tightening from 3Q and looks for two 25bp hikes starting in July.

The USD/CAD pair reverses an intraday dip to sub-1.3800 levels and fills a modest weekly bearish gap, hitting a fresh daily top during the first half of the European session on Monday.

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note a sharp opening rise in GBP/USD, with rapid upward momentum that could see the pair test 1.3505, while 1.3530 remains a key resistance.

The Euro (EUR) trades 0.15% higher to near 185.00 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) during the European trading session on Monday.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) accelerates its recovery against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the USD/CHF pair reaching 11-day lows below 0.7820 at the moment of trading, down from highs past 0.7900 last week.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the European Central Bank's (ECB) April Account to underline a tightening bias, with markets already pricing high odds of a June rate hike to 2.25%.

HSBC analysts argue that foreign exchange intervention alone is unlikely to keep the USD/JPY pair sustainably below 160. They stress that effectiveness increases when intervention coincides with Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes and lower Oil prices.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) maintains a moderately negative tone against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, despite a somewhat brighter market sentiment.

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report that AUD/USD rebounded sharply after recent weakness, with the pair swinging between 0.7100 and 0.7168 and now trading near 0.7155.

AUD/USD holds ground after two days of losses, trading around 0.7170 during the early European hours on Monday. The pair appreciates as the Australian Dollar (AUD) receives support from fading safe-haven demand in anticipation of the United States (US)-Iran accord.

The USD/JPY pair attracts some dip-buyers following a bearish gap opening on Monday and reclaims the 159.00 mark during the early part of the European session.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the RBNZ to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% this week, while swaps price 125 bps of tightening over the next year.

MUFG’s Teppei Ino reviews recent USD/JPY performance, noting that the pair opened at 156.86 and rose toward 158.50 as the Dollar strengthened on difficult US-Iran negotiations, higher crude oil prices and renewed inflation concerns.

HSBC analysts discuss why the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has not strengthened significantly despite higher Oil prices, highlighting structural constraints in Canada’s non-US export capacity.

The EUR/GBP cross trades in negative territory around 0.8635 during the early European trading hours on Monday. Traders await the speeches from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers later this week, including President Christine Lagarde, for fresh impetus. 

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann describe EUR/USD as firming after a brief dip to 1.1575, with upward momentum starting to build.

Silver (XAG/USD) failed to breach resistance at the $79.00 area earlier on Monday, but remains moderately bid, trading in the mid-$77.00s at the time of writing.

The Euro (EUR) holds onto its opening gains against the US Dollar (USD) around 1.1645 at the start of the European trading session on Monday.

The USD/CAD pair edges lower to around 1.3805 during the early European session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) softens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) after US officials signal progress on a peace deal with Iran.

The GBP/USD pair is seen building on its modest bullish opening gap on Monday and recovering further from its lowest level since April 8, around the 1.3300 round figure touched last week.