GBP/JPY edges higher on Monday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms across the G10 currency space, with structural headwinds limiting the impact of recent intervention. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 214.70, up 0.85% on the day.
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux notes AUD/USD has defended its 200-DMA and established a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, signalling a short-term uptrend.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that JPY is underperforming as firmer Oil prices support USD/JPY, while the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) latest meeting minutes did little to shift rate expectations.
Rabıobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses recent EUR/USD strength, noting it was mainly driven by a softer Dollar after weak United States (US) labour data reduced Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations.
TD Securities strategists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, noting that policy is already restrictive and that Australian activity, particularly housing, is slowing in response to earlier hikes.
BNY’s Wee Khoon Chong highlights that long-end JGB yields are rising on inflation and fiscal concerns, with markets pricing a roughly 50% chance of a 25bp BoJ hike in September and a full hike by year-end.
USD/CAD trades around 1.3940 on Monday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day, after falling sharply on Friday.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) holds gains, in the mid-range of the 0.7000s against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with two-month highs of 0.7088 at hand. The Aussie is capitalising on the US Dollar’s weakness, as hopes of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes wane.
The Euro (EUR) trades slightly lower at around 1.1550 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is down against its major currency peers on Monday, trading 0.6% lower at around 158.80 against the US Dollar (USD) at the time of writing during the European trading session.
GBP/USD trades around 1.3495 on Monday at the time of writing, up a modest 0.04% on the day. However, the pair struggles to hold firmly above the psychological 1.3500 level after benefiting on Friday from a decline in the US Dollar (USD) triggered by disappointing United States (US) employment data.
Societe Generale strategists highlight that EUR/USD has squeezed above key resistance as Dollar weakness follows softer United States (US) employment data and reduced odds of a September Fed hike. The pair is seen slightly expensive versus nat gas but near fair value on 2-year spreads.
Michael Pfister at Commerzbank highlights a strong Canadian labour market and improving Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and exports as signs of real-economy recovery, but warns this is fragile due to threatened US tariffs.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5895 on Monday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day.
The Euro (EUR) ticks higher against a softer US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the EUR/USD pair trading at the 1.1560 area at the time of writing, consolidating gains a few pips below seven-week highs at 1.1773.
The USD/CHF pair struggles to attract any meaningful buyers and remains on the back foot below the 0.8100 mark through the first half of the European session on Monday.
Eurozone’s Sentix Investor Confidence data, a key indicator of Investor morale, turns positive to 0.9 in August from -3.1 in July.
BNY’s Geoff Yu and David Tam expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep rates unchanged at 4.35%, noting that markets doubt its willingness to hike despite persistent inflation and robust labor and spending data.
The GBP/JPY cross catches aggressive bids at the start of a new week and builds on its strong recovery move from the vicinity of mid-209.00s, or the lowest level since early March touched last Monday.
EUR/JPY rises after registering losses in the previous day, trading around 183.10 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross is holding a capped tone as it sits below the 50-day Exponential moving average (EMA) while clinging to short-term support at the nine-day EMA.
The AUD/USD pair enters a bullish consolidation phase at the start of the new week as traders opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the crucial Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on Tuesday.
The Euro (EUR) posts mild losses against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday, with the EUR/GBP pair testing Friday’s lows at 0.8560, as the situation in the Middle East muddles and Crude prices tick up, adding pressure on the Eurozone’s Oil-importing economies.
USD/CAD gains ground after registering over 0.5% losses in the previous day, trading around 1.3950 during the early European hours on Monday. The pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens on rising safe-haven demand, driven by heightened geopolitical caution.
BNY’s Geoff Yu and David Tam highlight that USD/JPY is grinding higher again after Japan’s recent intervention, with the Japanese Yen (JPY) having already surrendered much of its gains.
Volkmar Baur at Commerzbank expects the RBA to keep rates unchanged, in line with market pricing, but sees scope for a slightly hawkish tone given high petroleum prices and already reduced hike expectations.
The British Pound (GBP) trades higher against its major currency peers and is marginally up at around 1.3500 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday.
The US Dollar has retraced previous losses against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Monday, with the USD/JPY pair returning above the 158.00 line, after bouncing up from Friday’s low, at 156.68. The pair has regained some momentum, and bulls are aiming at last week's highs, in the 158.65 area.
Danske Research Team notes that the US Dollar (USD) weakened after a softer US jobs report, allowing EUR/USD to briefly reach its highest level in almost two months.
The Euro (EUR) trades subduedly at around 1.1550 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session on Monday. The EUR/USD pair edges down as the US Dollar rebounds after a significant fall on Friday.
USD/CHF inches higher after registering over 0.5% losses in the previous trading day, hovering around 0.8090 during the Asian hours on Monday.