The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for May on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT.

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that China has expanded its export control list to include more Japanese entities, raising supply chain risks for defense and rare earths, while Japanese commercial sales grew strongly in May.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has gained modest relief as front-end US/Canada spreads retreat about 10bps from last week’s peak, though rate differentials remain punitive.

BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights a recurring post-Sintra pattern in the Euro, with hawkish ECB communication from Christine Lagarde typically driving EUR/USD gains from late June into early July before they fade.

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux highlights that USD/JPY has broken out of a brief consolidation and is now challenging its 2024 peak near 162.00. The bank notes strong May retail sales support expectations for further Bank of Japan tightening.

The British Pound (GBP) outperforms its major currency peers, trading 0.25% higher to near 1.3230 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday.

The Euro (EUR) ticks higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday but is struggling to confirm a move above 1.1400, with the 13-month low in the 1.1320 area still within relatively close reach.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang reports EUR/USD briefly spiked to 1.1434 before retreating, leaving intraday momentum subdued and the pair expected to trade between 1.1360 and 1.1410.

Deutsche Bank Research points to a busy week for Japan, with strong May retail sales already released and industrial production data due.

The USD/CAD pair trades flat at around 1.14195 during the European trading session on Monday. The Loonie pair consolidates as investors shift focus to the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be released on Thursday.

AUD/USD remains subdued for the second successive day, trading around 0.6890 during the European hours on Monday. The pair is consolidating its recent losses as a subdued Australian Dollar (AUD) battles a softer US Dollar (USD) amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

Eurozone Business Climate declined to -0.38 in June from previous -0.26

Eurozone Services Sentiment came in at 3.2, above expectations (2.5) in June

Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator came in at 95, above expectations (94.3) in June

Eurozone Industrial Confidence registered at -7.7 above expectations (-7.8) in June

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes AUD/USD remains locked in a short-term range between 0.6880 and 0.6920 after a recent impulsive decline. Downward momentum is starting to ease, with a break above 0.6940 seen as signalling that the major 0.6835 support is out of reach.

Eurozone M3 Money Supply (3m) remains unchanged at 3% in May

Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) came in at 3.2%, above forecasts (2.7%) in May

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang sees USD/JPY continuing to consolidate just below the 2024 high of 162.00, with intraday trading expected between 161.45 and 161.95.

Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay and Dr. Henry Hao note that the outlook for the Indian Rupee (INR) has brightened as lower Oil prices and renewed foreign capital inflows ease balance-of-payments pressures.

USD/CAD loses ground for the third successive day, trading around 1.4180 during the early European hours on Monday. The pair continues its losing streak after pulling back from 14-month highs.

The USD/JPY pair trades in a tight range around 161.80 during the European trading session on Monday. The pair struggles for a direction while market experts remain confident of Tokyo’s intervention to support the Japanese Yen (JPY).

The British Pound (GBP) is practically flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with Pound bulls subdued amid rising geopolitical tensions and the UK’s political impasse, while the safe-haven USD treads water, awaiting an array of US employment indicators.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights that GBP/USD continues to lack clear momentum, with intraday action expected between 1.3175 and 1.3225. The bank maintains a negative 1–3 week view, seeing scope for a drop toward 1.3110 while strong resistance at 1.3245 caps upside.

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues that recent EUR/USD weakness reflects Dollar strength rather than Euro fragility, with Fed expectations driving the move.

The EUR/GBP cross loses ground to near 0.8625 during the early European trading hours on Monday. Fading additional rate hike expectations from the European Central Bank (ECB) weigh on the Euro (EUR) against the British Pound (GBP). Traders will closely watch the ECB’s annual forum later on Monday. 

The EUR/USD pair holds steady near 1.1385 during the early European trading hours on Monday. Traders continue to assess the developments surrounding talks to end the US war with Iran.

USD/CHF remains flat for the second successive day, hovering around 0.8100 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair moves little as the US Dollar (USD) remains calm amid market caution following the latest military clashes between the United States (US) and Iran and its temporary truce.

The EUR/JPY cross trades in positive territory near 184.20 during the early European session on Monday. However, the potential upside for the cross might be limited as traders are nervous about a fragile US-Iran ceasefire. 

The AUD/USD pair trades in a tight range around 0.6890 during the Asian trading session on Monday.