Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed as traders await US/Iran headlines and Friday’s Canadian employment data. USD/CAD trades near 1.36, with spot still above Scotiabank’s fair value estimate around 1.3514.

Societe Generale’s team highlights that GBP/USD has edged higher, helped by lower Oil prices, risk correlations and Asian FX intervention-driven US Dollar (USD) selling. However, they stress that UK local elections and seasonal patterns pose downside risks.

Nomura's research analysts note that the the central bank of Sweden, Riksbank kept its policy rate at 1.75% in May, maintaining a wait-and-see stance as weak inflation offsets upside risks from global energy prices and the Iran war.

BNY's Geoff Yu highlights that Euro area retail trade shows modest growth while Eurozone construction PMI signals a sharp contraction and rising cost pressures. German manufacturing orders and services turnover are improving, but France’s trade deficit is widening on energy imports.

EUR/GBP trades flat on Thursday as traders remain cautious ahead of the UK local election results, while also assessing the prospects of a possible US-Iran deal aimed at ending the war in the Middle East.

Commerzbank analysts Michael Pfister and Norman Liebke argue that the Mexican Peso (MXN) is likely to weaken against the US Dollar (USD) in coming weeks as Banxico maintains a dovish stance despite rising inflation risks.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that GBP/USD has risen above pre-war levels as United Kingdom (UK) local and Scottish elections test Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership.

Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) registered at 4.3% above expectations (3.5%) in March

Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) above expectations (-0.2%) in March: Actual (0.1%)

USD/CAD trades around 1.3630 on Thursday at the time of writing, showing little change on the day, as lower Oil prices continue to weigh on the Canadian Dollar (CAD) while the US Dollar (USD) remains pressured as well.

The GBP/USD pair trades 0.18% higher around 1.3620 during the European trading session on Thursday. The Cable reflects strength as the US Dollar (USD) faces selling pressure amid the optimism that the United States (US) and Iran will reach a peace deal soon.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) keeps marching higher at two-month highs against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as reports of progress in the US-Iran peace deal and lower Oil prices keep demand for the safe-haven US Dollar subdued.

Silver (XAG/USD) keeps rallying on Thursday, with precious metals buoyed by lower Treasury yields amid a pullback in oil prices that has eased bets on US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes.

USD/JPY trades around 156.30 on Thursday at the time of writing, down a modest 0.05% on the day, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains supported by speculation that Japanese authorities could step into the market to curb the currency’s weakness.

TD Securities strategists Izidor Flajsman and Prashant Newnaha argue that Australia is entering a rare phase of unilateral RBA tightening, with the Fed expected to cut while the RBA continues hiking.

The Euro (EUR) appreciates against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Thursday, trading at 1.1765 at the time of writing, fuelled by hopes of a peace deal that would end Iran’s war and upbeat Eurozone macroeconomic releases.

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues that The Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) easing cycle, signalled by the March cut, should continue with another 25 bp reduction widely expected today.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades higher against its major currency peers, except the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), during the European trading session on Thursday.

Philip Wee at DBS Group Research points out that the Australian Dollar (AUD) has been a key beneficiary of the risk-on shift. AUD/USD broke above 0.72 after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) signalled a pause following three consecutive rate hikes.

Eurozone Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, decline by 0.1% month-on-month (MoM) in March, while it was expected to contract steadily by 0.3%. February’s figure was revised lower from -0.2%.

Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.1%, above expectations (-0.3%) in March

Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (1%) in March: Actual (1.2%)

The Pound (GBP) trades practically flat around 212.50 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday.

The USD/CHF pair is down around 0.15% to near 0.7775 during the European trading session on Thursday. The Swiss Franc pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) declines due to growing hopes that the United States (US) and Iran would reach a peace deal soon.

Silver (XAG/USD) appreciates for the second consecutive day on Thursday, with precious metals buoyed amid lower Treasury yields, as the decline in Oil prices has eased bets on US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes.

The NZD/USD pair seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses and holds above mid-0.5900s through the early European session on Thursday.

BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that changing gilt ownership patterns limit downside for the Pound (GBP) even as United Kingdom (UK) fiscal risks rise. Foreign investors have already reduced exposure, leaving domestic buyers dominant.

The USD/CAD pair trades with mild gains around 1.3635 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Hopes for a US-Iran peace deal to end the war drag crude oil prices lower, weighing on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD). 

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that recent USD/JPY moves likely reflect Japanese intervention, with 158 replacing 160 as the key line.

The Euro (EUR) has found some support in the 0.8620 area against the British Pound (GBP), but upside attempts remain capped below a previous support area at 0.8650.