Brazil IPCA Inflation registered at 0.16%, below expectations (0.31%) in June

OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong observe that the Indian Rupee (INR) faced depreciation pressure as Oil and geopolitics resurfaced, pushing USD/INR towards a one‑month high.

The Euro (EUR) has given away most of the daily gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, returning to the 1.1430 area from session highs at 1.1475, which leaves the pair practically flat on the daily chart.

AUD/USD trades around 0.6950 on Friday at the time of writing, up 0.10% on the day after reaching a more than two-week high earlier in the day. The pair gives back part of its gains as investors remain caught between a weaker US Dollar (USD) and lingering factors supporting the Greenback.

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux notes EUR/USD has rebounded after forming an interim low near 1.1325 and moved back into its prior range, signalling limited follow-through on the earlier breakdown.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad describes USD/CAD trading just below 1.4200 and broadly aligned with US-Canada two-year yield spreads ahead of June labor data.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is outperforming the US Dollar in the short term, pulling the USD/CAD pair down from recent multi-month highs. This corrective move comes at a crucial juncture, as global markets look ahead to the Bank of Canada's (BoC) upcoming policy meeting.

EUR/JPY trades around 184.95 on Friday at the time of writing, down 0.35% on the day, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) benefits from renewed demand following the government's announcement of a potential shift toward greater domestic investment.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is giving away gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, trading at the 0.5775 area after hitting fresh three-week highs at 0.5794 earlier on the day.

Societe Generale strategists highlight that USD/CAD is tactically expensive versus the 2-year spread and has recently met resistance near 1.4250 before retracing toward 1.4130.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny highlights that European Central Bank (ECB) minutes added little new information but confirmed openness to another rate hike, consistent with MUFG’s call for a 25bp move in September.

The GBP/JPY cross attracted heavy selling on Friday, snapping a two-day winning streak to the highest level since January 2008, around the 218.00 mark set the previous day.

The British Pound (GBP) gives back its early gains and turns almost flat around 1.3410 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday.

The US Dollar (USD) holds losses below 161.75 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Friday following a 100-pip reversal earlier on the day.

ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights that Canada’s June jobs report is expected to show a sharp slowdown in hiring and a pickup in wage growth. He argues the bar for a hawkish shift by the Bank of Canada (BoC) remains high, with benign inflation and USMCA-related risks limiting hike prospects.

The USD/CAD pair stages a modest intraday recovery from the 1.4135 area, or a three-week low touched this Friday, and climbs to the top end of its daily range during the early European session.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes the Japanese Yen is leading G10 gains after Finance Minister Katayama unexpectedly urged households and the GPIF to increase investments in Japanese financial assets.

According to UOB’s Quek Ser Leang, GBP/USD’s sharp rebound has left scope to test major resistance at 1.3445, though a clear break is seen as unlikely in the near term. Short-term support lies at 1.3390 and 1.3360.

Here is what you need to know on Friday, July 10:

ING’s Francesco Pesole writes that Middle East tensions have modestly re-tightened EUR/USD short-term swap rate differentials by around 10bp, though the spread remains wider than pre-war levels.

The NZD/USD pair trades in positive territory around 0.5775 during the early European session on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gathers strength to its strongest level in three weeks against the US Dollar (USD) on a hawkish rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) meets expectations (2%) in June

France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) in line with forecasts (-0.3%) in June

The Euro (EUR) holds minor gains against a somewhat softer US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The pair edged up to the mid-range of the 1.1400s, but it has failed to find acceptance above the top of the last two weeks' trading range, in the area of 1.1475, and is set to close the week practically unchanged.

The USD/JPY pair tumbles to around 161.50 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) after the reports that Japan plans to encourage pension funds to increase their holdings of domestic financial assets.

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang highlights a modest uptick in EUR/USD momentum, with scope to retest 1.1450 but limited prospects for a sustained break higher. Intraday support is seen at 1.1420 and 1.1405.

Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets forecasts (2.4%) in June

Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets forecasts (-0.2%) in June

Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (-0.3%) in June

Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (2.3%) in June