AUD/USD retreats to 0.6990 on Monday, though still up on Friday's close, after briefly rising as high as 0.7011 during the Asian session as investors prepare for key Australian inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision.

USD/CAD edges higher on Monday, paring earlier losses as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds after opening the week with a bearish gap. The Greenback initially weakened as a temporary pause in attacks between the United States (US) and Iran improved risk sentiment.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that Eurozone leading indicators, including Germany’s IFO, Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and ZEW, point to improving activity.

EUR/USD reverses its early gains on Monday and moves toward filling the bullish gap at the weekly open. The pair initially rose after a temporary pause in attacks between the United States (US) and Iran improved risk sentiment, sent Oil prices sharply lower and weighed on the US Dollar (USD).

HSBC argues that GBP/USD faces renewed downside as UK disinflation and a softer labour market reduce urgency for further Bank of England tightening, even though markets still price hikes out to 2027.

BNP Paribas strategists project Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to slow to 0.8% in 2026 from 1.5% in 2025 due to spillovers from the Middle East conflict and weaker consumption.

NZD/USD trades around 0.5790 at the time of writing on Monday, virtually unchanged on the day.

GBP/JPY edges lower on Monday as the British Pound (GBP) weakens across the board following its recent advance, with traders trimming exposure ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest-rate decision on Thursday. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 217.84, down 0.23% on the day.

The Euro (EUR) gives back a majority of its early gains against the US Dollar (USD) after failing to rise above the intraday high of 1.1418 on Monday.

HSBC strategists see EUR/USD at risk of moving lower as the European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a cautious, data-dependent stance and refrains from signalling further rate hikes.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that benign Consumer Price Index (CPI) and CPIF inflation leave Sweden and the Riksbank better positioned than many G10 peers to delay rate hikes despite supply disruptions from the Iran war.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains vulnerable, despite the safe-haven US Dollar’s (USD) weakness on Monday, and extends losses for the second consecutive day.

AUD/USD trades around 0.7000 on Monday at the time of writing, up 0.33% on the day, supported by a weaker US Dollar (USD) as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East show signs of easing.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad anticipates the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will leave its policy rate at 1.00% after June’s hike, with inflation still below target and markets pricing only gradual tightening.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) pares recent losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, favoured by a relief rally, as the US and Iran halted their hostilities, opening the door for further negotiations.

Geoff Yu at BNY argues that the Bank of England (BoE) is likely to keep policy unchanged despite energy-driven price pressures, as markets have already tightened financial conditions.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights that lower energy prices have eased pressure on Japanese policymakers and slowed USD/JPY’s climb below 164.00. Markets expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to keep rates unchanged but are focused on any hawkish signals on future hikes.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad sees above-target Australian inflation keeping Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hike risks alive, with June and Q2 Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to show firm trimmed mean readings.

The British Pound (GBP) is up 0.15% to near 1.3345 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday.

Commerzbank analysts report that USD/INR was little changed near 96.57 on Friday but has edged higher since early July, largely reflecting renewed upward pressure from Oil prices. They argue that the recent pullback in Oil should ease some strain on the Rupee.

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, but stresses that markets need a clearer tightening signal as the Japanese Yen trades near multi-decade lows.

UOB strategists note GBP/USD edged up to 1.3326, with Gilts caught between fiscal risks from Prime Minister Burnham’s debut plans and the Oil price shock.

The Euro (EUR) trades 0.36% higher to near 1.1410 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The major currency pair trades firmly as the revival of risk-on market sentiment has diminished the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar.

The Euro (EUR) has picked up towards the 0.8540 area against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday, after a mild pullback on Friday found support at 0.8530. The pair maintains the immediate bullish trend from mid-July lows at 0.8455, with bulls looking at three-week highs in the area of 0.8555. 

UOB strategists highlight that EUR/USD slipped slightly to 1.1369 as comments from European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus suggested a rate increase remains more likely than a hold.

The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its recovery against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy week.

The Japanese Yen starts the week on a positive note against the US Dollar (USD), but is down against its other currency peers.

The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on a modest bullish gap opening on Monday and oscillates in a narrow band around the 0.7000 psychological mark through the Asian session.

EUR/JPY gains ground after registering minor losses in the previous day, trading around 186.50 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross is keeping a bullish near-term bias as it holds above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

USD/CHF depreciates after five days of losses, trading around 0.8150 during the Asian hours on Monday.