MUFG’s Michael Wan views the detailed US–India interim trade deal, including tariff cuts and exemptions, as positive for India’s external position. He sees scope for USD/INR to briefly break below 90 in coming months, but expects only a shallow INR recovery.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) rebounds against the US Dollar (USD)on Friday, as the Greenback trims earlier gains after softer-than-expected US inflation data.

USD/CAD trades in a tight range on Friday, as the US Dollar (USD) holds firm despite softer-than-expected US inflation data. At the time of writing, USD/CAD is hovering near 1.3625, holding modest gains and remaining on the front foot for a third consecutive day.

Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (2%) in January: Actual (1.6%)

Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (2%) in January: Actual (1.62%)

The GBP/USD holds firm at around 1.3620 as the latest inflation report in the United States, prompted traders to re-price in the likelihood of an interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve at the June meeting. The pair trades flat yet poised to end the week with a minimal gain of 0.12%.

EUR/CHF extends its decline on Friday, as Swiss inflation data supports the Swiss Franc (CHF). At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.9120, hovering near the all-time low of 0.9095.

The Euro (EUR) regains some ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with EUR/USD clawing back part of its earlier losses as soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data pressures the Greenback.

Rabobank’s Bas van Geffen discusses how EU leaders are increasingly considering a multispeed European Union to address structural reforms and competitiveness.

EUR/GBP rebounds from earlier daily lows on Friday, with the Euro (EUR) drawing modest support from preliminary Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data that showed the economy growing in line with expectations in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Silver (XAG/USD) shows minor gains on Friday, trading at $77.35 at the time of writing after bouncing from lows near $74.00 on Thursday. The white metal, however, remains on track for its third consecutive weekly decline, with bulls lacking follow-through above the $79.00 area.

Nordea’s Ole Håkon Eek-Nielsen and Henrik Unell, notes that EUR/SEK has broken to new lows as the SEK bull story aligns with Dollar weakness and strong repatriation flows.

Brazil Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.4%, below expectations (-0.2%) in December

Rabobank’s Molly Schwartz and Christian Lawrence expect USD/CAD to trade broadly sideways through 2026 as US‑Canada trade tensions and USMCA review risks offset a weaker Dollar.

Deutsche Bank analysts note that EUR/USD was little changed, with the Dollar Index edging higher, as markets await the US CPI release for January.

The Pound (GBP) extends losses against the US Dollar (USD) for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 1.3600 on Friday after pulling back from weekly highs above 1.3700.

The US Dollar (USD) found support at 152.30 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) and is trimming some losses on Friday, returning to the upper range of the 153.00s.

Russia Interest Rate Decision came in at 15.5% below forecasts (16%)

Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. increased to €11.6B in December from previous €10.7B

Eurozone Employment Change (QoQ) came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0.1%) in 4Q

Eurozone Employment Change (YoY) meets forecasts (0.6%) in 4Q

Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. climbed from previous €9.9B to €12.6B in December

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman notes that the Japanese Yen is set to be the best-performing G10 currency this week, with USD/JPY dropping sharply after Japan’s election failed to trigger further Yen weakness.

Commerzbank’s strategy team keeps a constructive view on the Euro versus the Dollar, forecasting EUR/USD at 1.19 in Q1 2026 and a gradual rise to 1.22 by year-end.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is coming under increasing bearish pressure on Friday, amid a firmer US Dollar (USD), favoured by the dismal market mood.

The US Dollar (USD) posts moderate gains against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Friday, returning to levels above 0.7700 to trade at 0.7714 at the time of writing.

GBP/USD remains subdued for the fourth successive session, trading around 1.3600 during the European hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an ongoing bullish bias, as the pair trades within an ascending channel pattern.

The Euro (EUR) is trading lower against the US Dollar (USD) for the fourth consecutive day on Friday, changing hands at 1.1855 at the time of writing, down from its weekly high of 1.1928.

Here is what you need to know on Friday, February 13:

The USD/CAD pair is seen building on this week's goodish rebound from the 1.3500 psychological mark and gaining positive traction for the third consecutive day on Friday.