The Euro holds firm against the US Dollar on Wednesday as hostilities in the Middle East continued, with the US attacking Iran for the second straight day at around the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD trades at 1.1420, after bouncing off daily lows of 1.1391.
AUD/USD trades pinned between 0.6900 and 0.6950 on Wednesday, essentially unchanged and printing the kind of indecision candle that tells traders the week's rebound has run out of sponsorship.
GBP/USD trades just below 1.3400 on Wednesday, up around a quarter of a percent and once again leaning on the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) that has repelled every advance since the pair clawed back from its mid-June washout.
Georgette Boele at ABN AMRO highlights persistent weakness in the Japanese Yen as investors test authorities’ tolerance for depreciation. Fiscal expansion and a dovish Bank of Japan stance weigh on the currency, while Japan’s energy-importer status adds pressure.
The USD/CHF pair recoils after reaching a five-day high of 0.8108 on Wednesday, edging down some 0.02% as risk appetite deteriorates due to US President Donald Trump’s suggestion of an end to the ceasefire, as Iran attacked ships on Tuesday.
The Japanese Yen depreciated by over 0.26% within familiar levels, as the Fed’s last meeting minutes showed that the majority of participants indicated that “some policy firming would likely be warranted” and agreed to shorten the length of the monetary policy statement.
EUR/USD holds firm on Wednesday after reversing earlier losses triggered by renewed tensions between the United States (US) and Iran, while traders digest the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes.
ABN AMRO’s Georgette Boele reports that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted its policy rate by 25 bp to 2.5% and signalled more tightening is likely. Despite some easing in energy prices, the bank sees persistent inflation pressures and scope for further reduction in stimulus.
The Euro's slide against the Pound has now consumed seven of the last eight trading sessions, and the reflex explanation of a soft single currency gets the attribution backwards.
USD/JPY trades higher near 162.50 on Wednesday, after nearing a four-decade high earlier in the day, as the US Dollar (USD) remains supported by geopolitical risk and caution ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.
USD/CAD trades around 1.4190 at the time of writing on Wednesday, down 0.10% on the day, as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) benefits from a sharp rebound in Oil prices fueled by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
ABN AMRO’s Georgette Boele notes that the Euro’s relationship with energy prices has evolved, with recent Oil and Gas gains again weighing on EUR/USD.
The Pound Sterling posted modest gains during the North American session amid growing tensions in the Middle East and US President Donald Trump's comments that the deal with Iran was “over” after both countries exchanged attacks over the last couple of days.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight renewed weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY), which is underperforming G10 peers and threatening fresh multi-decade lows as USD/JPY trades at levels last seen in 1986.
ING’s Francesco Pesole reports that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised rates to 2.50%, delivering a more hawkish message than expected and signalling further tightening is likely.
AUD/USD trades under pressure near 0.6920 on Wednesday, even after the US Dollar (USD) held firm amid geopolitical risk and caution ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.
EUR/USD treads water above the 1.1400 mark on Wednesday, steadying after coming under selling pressure as traders assess renewed US-Iran tensions after both sides exchanged fire overnight following attacks on commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week.
Rabobank strategists Christian Lawrence and Molly Schwartz note that despite Moody’s downgrade of Mexico to Baa3, 10-year MBono yields have fallen and markets remain relaxed about Mexico’s investment-grade status.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Euro (EUR) is consolidating around the low 1.14s, with mixed G10 performance as markets reassess Oil’s impact on Euro area terms of trade and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate path.
BNY’s Geoff Yu reports that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bp to 2.50% to steer inflation back to 2%. The committee still sees further removal of stimulus as likely, though data will guide decisions.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has held up well through recent Iran-driven volatility, extending its rebound even as the US Dollar (USD) trades mixed.
USD/JPY edges higher on Wednesday as renewed escalation in the Middle East boosts demand for the US Dollar (USD) and lifts Oil prices, weighing on the Japanese Yen (JPY). At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 162.50, close to 40-year highs.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a 25 bps hike to 2.50%, largely priced in, triggering an New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rally before gains were trimmed by Middle East tensions.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) nurses minor losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday but is depreciating nearly 0.7% so far this week.
The British Pound (GBP) is down 0.13% to near 1.3340 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair faces selling pressure as renewed geopolitical risks have diminished the appeal of riskier assets.
AUD/USD falls to around 0.6920 on Wednesday at the time of writing, down 0.13% on the day after giving back its earlier gains.
Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes argues that Sweden’s strong growth and low inflation contrast with broader G10 dynamics, yet the Krona remains weak. He notes Sweden’s superior debt sustainability and recent data showing robust Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and minimal inflation.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades higher against its major currency peers, with USD/CAD sliding 0.26% to near 1.4160 during the European trading session on Wednesday.
The Euro (EUR) is trading flat against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday, with bears contained above 0.8535 yet failing to find acceptance above 0.8650 so far.
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny highlights that implied volatility in GBP/USD has barely moved after Nigel Farage’s decision to resign and recontest his Clacton seat, calling the by‑election a sham with potential further votes if he is sanctioned.