US Dollar Index rebounds after a sharp decline, Michigan Consumer Sentiment eyed
- US Dollar Index lost ground as the Challenger Job Cuts report raised the Fed rate cut bets.
- US firms announced over 153,000 job cuts in October, the highest October total in more than two decades.
- The US government shutdown drags on, hitting a record duration with no resolution in sight.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is rebounding after losing nearly 0.5% in the previous session and trading around 99.80 during the Asian hours on Friday. The preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data will be eyed later in the day.
The US Dollar faced challenges as the Challenger Job Cuts report prompted the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates at its December meeting. Challenger, Grey & Christmas on Thursday, announced that companies cut over 153,000 jobs in October, marking the biggest reduction for the month in more than 20 years.
The Greenback could further lose ground as the US government shutdown extends further, hitting a record with still no solution in sight. The Senate is not currently set to vote on a House-passed measure to reopen the government on Thursday, after it failed to advance for the 14th time on Tuesday.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said late Thursday that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. Musalem noted that while tariffs are currently adding upward pressure to prices, their impact is expected to diminish next year. He added that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. The US economy has shown resilience despite ongoing uncertainty, with the labor market softening recently but still hovering near full employment, he added.
Washington moves to suspend penalties on China’s shipbuilding sector, easing trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. The Office of the United States (US) Trade Representative announced that it is seeking public input on a one-year suspension of tariffs on Chinese imports.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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