EUR/USD edges above 1.1750 due to ECB-Fed policy divergence
- EUR/USD gains as the ECB is likely to keep interest rates on hold for an extended period.
- The US Dollar weakens as markets price in two additional Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.
- Markets brace for President Trump to nominate a new Fed chair in May, potentially favoring lower interest rates.
EUR/USD has recovered its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 1.1760 during the Asian hours on Friday. Traders will likely observe Germany’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data later in the day.
The Euro (EUR) is finding support against the US Dollar (USD) as monetary policy paths diverge between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The ECB left interest rates unchanged in December and indicated they are likely to stay on hold for an extended period. ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted that elevated uncertainty makes it challenging to provide clear forward guidance on future policy moves.
The EUR/USD pair gains ground as the US Dollar struggles amid expectations of two additional Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, which would narrow interest-rate differentials with other major central banks. Markets are bracing for US President Donald Trump to nominate a new Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell when his term ends in May, a move that could tilt monetary policy toward lower interest rates.
The CME FedWatch tool shows an 85.1% probability of rates being held at the Fed’s January meeting, up from 84.5% a week earlier. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut has fallen to 14.9% from 15.5% a week ago.
The Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) at the December meeting, bringing the target range to 3.50%–3.75%. The Fed delivered a cumulative 75 bps of rate cuts in 2025 amid a cooling labor market and still-elevated inflation.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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