AUD/USD rises to near 0.6700 as RBA rate hike bets emerge
- AUD/USD gains as the Australian Dollar finds support on rising odds of RBA interest rate hikes.
- Australia’s Manufacturing PMI held at 51.6 in December, below the 52.2 flash estimate and unchanged from November.
- The US Dollar weakens as markets price in two additional Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.
AUD/USD rises more than 0.25% after after remaining flat in the previous session, trading around 0.6690 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair gains as the Australian Dollar (AUD) finds support amid growing expectations of interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Australia’s Q4 CPI report is awaited due January 28. Analysts note that a stronger-than-expected Q4 core inflation reading could trigger a rate hike at the RBA’s February 3 meeting.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock said earlier that although the board did not explicitly consider a rate hike, it discussed the conditions under which interest rates might need to increase in 2026. The RBA December Meeting Minutes indicated that policymakers stand ready to tighten policy if inflation fails to ease as expected
The headline seasonally adjusted S&P Global Australia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 51.6 in December 2025, slightly below the flash estimate of 52.2 and unchanged from November. The index held at a three-month high, with output and new orders continuing to expand, albeit at a slower pace.
The AUD/USD pair also receives support as the US Dollar struggles on odds of two additional Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting that monetary policy paths diverge between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Markets are bracing for US President Donald Trump to nominate a new Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell when his term ends in May, a move that could tilt monetary policy toward lower interest rates.
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) December Meeting Minutes indicated that most participants judged that it would likely be appropriate to stand on further rate cuts if inflation declined over time. Meanwhile, some Fed officials said it might be best to leave rates unchanged for a while after the committee made three rate reductions in 2025 to support the weakening labor market.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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