EUR/USD moves higher to near 1.1550 ahead of HCOB PMI data
- EUR/USD gains ground amid increasing bets for the Fed rate cut in December.
- CME FedWatch Tool suggests pricing in 36% odds of a rate cut in December, up from 30% a day ago.
- ECB’s Gabriel Makhlouf said current monetary policy is appropriate, with any adjustment unlikely unless a significant change occurs.
EUR/USD edges higher after a flat previous day, trading around 1.1540 during the Asian hours on Friday. Traders await preliminary HOCB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for November from Germany and the Eurozone due later in the day. Focus will be shifted toward the US S&P Global PMI data later in the North American session.
The EUR/USD pair steadies as the US Dollar (USD) eases after a five-day rally, with September jobs data boosting expectations of a Fed rate cut in December. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that financial markets are now pricing in a 36% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, up from 30% probability that markets priced a day ago.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States (US) rose by 119,000 in September, compared to the 4,000 decrease (revised from +22,000) recorded in August. This figure surpassed the market expectation of 50,000. The Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in August. The Average Hourly Earnings held steady at 3.8% YoY, compared to the market expectation of 3.7%.
The Euro (EUR) maintains its position amid the cautious sentiment surrounding the near-term European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy outlook. The ECB is widely expected to keep rates unchanged through the end of 2026, with inflation hovering near its 2% target, stable economic growth, and unemployment at record lows.
ECB Governing Council (GC) member and Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, Gabriel Makhlouf, said on Thursday that the current monetary policy is appropriate and any adjustment is unlikely, unless there is a material change.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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