China's imports at the start of the week – Commerzbank

Since the beginning of October, the price of a barrel of Brent crude Oil has fluctuated mainly between USD 60 and 65. This is unlikely to change in the coming week, as factors supporting and weighing on prices are likely to balance each other out. At the beginning of the week, China's crude Oil imports are of particular interest, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

China’s Oil Imports remain robust amid high diesel crack spreads

"According to the IEA, Chinese Oil demand this year is likely to be only 100,000 barrels per year higher than last year, but crude Oil imports in the first ten months were 400,000 barrels per day higher than in the same period last year. We expect imports to remain high in November. Part of this is likely to continue to flow into the build-up of strategic reserves. Recently, the very high crack spreads on the diesel market provided a strong incentive for crude Oil processing. We therefore assume that imports were also very robust in November and will support prices."

"On the other hand, the new forecasts from the energy agencies out during the coming week are likely to weigh on prices. Although no major corrections are expected, they would continue to point to an oversupply on the Oil market in the coming year. Last month, the EIA revised its Oil price expectations slightly upward. This was mainly due to tougher sanctions against Russia and higher stockpiling in China. Higher prices and a recent surprise increase in production were decisive factors in raising the forecast for US production slightly (see figure). It is questionable whether further upward corrections will follow."