NZD/USD remains confined in a narrow range below mid-0.5900s after Chinese PMIs
- NZD/USD lacks any firm intraday direction amid a combination of diverging forces.
- A positive risk tone supports the Kiwi, though a modest USD uptick caps the major.
- Mixed Chinese PMIs do little to provide any meaningful impetus to spot prices.
The NZD/USD pair struggles to gain any meaningful traction during the Asian session on Wednesday and languishes near the lower end of a nearly two-week-old trading range. Spot prices hold steady around the 0.5930 region and move little following the release of Chinese PMIs.
The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) contracted to 49 in April, compared to 50.5 in the previous month and 49.9 expected. Moreover, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI eased more than expected, to 50.4 in the current month from 50.8 in March. However, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.2 to 50.4 in April, beating the market forecast of 49.9. The data fails to provide any meaningful impetus to antipodean currencies, including the Kiwi, amid mixed signals about US-China trade talks.
However, a positive risk tone – bolstered by the potential for a de-escalation of trade tensions between the world's two largest economies and progress on trade negotiations – acts as a tailwind for the perceived riskier New Zealand Dollar (NZD). That said, a modest US Dollar (USD) strength holds back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the NZD/USD pair. Meanwhile, the range-bound price action witnessed over the past two weeks or so warrants some caution before positioning for firm near-term direction ahead of this week's key US macro releases.
Wednesday's US economic docket features the ADP report on private-sector employment, the Advance Q1 GDP print, and the Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. The focus will then shift to the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, which may provide insight into the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy outlook. This, in turn, will play a crucial role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the NZD/USD pair.
Economic Indicator
NBS Manufacturing PMI
The NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in China’s manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at manufacturing companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Renminbi (CNY). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for CNY.
Read more.Last release: Wed Apr 30, 2025 01:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 49
Consensus: 49.9
Previous: 50.5
Source: China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing
The monthly manufacturing PMI is released by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) on the last day of every month. The official PMI is released before the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which makes it even more of a leading indicator, highlighting the health of the manufacturing sector, considered as the backbone of the Chinese economy. The data is of high relevance for the financial markets throughout several asset classes, given China’s influence on the global economy.
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