AUD/USD holds ground near 0.6700 due to cautious RBA tone
- AUD/USD steadies as the Australian dollar finds support amid cautious sentiment over the RBA’s policy outlook.
- Markets price a 27% chance of an RBA rate hike in February, rising to 76% by May.
- Initial Jobless Claims fell to 198K, beating expectations of 215K and down from the prior week’s 207K.
AUD/USD moves little after two days of gains, hovering around 0.6700 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair steadies as the Australian Dollar (AUD) receives support amid cautious sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy outlook.
Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations remained elevated at 4.6% in January, indicating that households continue to anticipate elevated price pressures. Markets currently price a 27% probability of a quarter-point rate hike by the Reserve Bank in February, increasing to 76% by May.
RBA policymakers acknowledged that inflation has eased markedly from its 2022 peak, although recent data point to renewed momentum. Headline inflation slowed to 3.4% YoY in November, the lowest since August, but it remains above the RBA’s 2–3% target range.
The AUD/USD pair holds ground as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground after Thursday’s US Initial Jobless Claims data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates on hold for the coming months. Fed funds futures have pushed expectations for the next rate cut back to June, as improving labour market conditions and policymakers’ concerns about sticky inflation persist.
Data from the US Department of Labor (DOL) showed Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly fell to 198K in the week ended January 10, below market expectations of 215K and down from the prior week’s revised 207K.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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