NZD/USD holds losses below 0.5750 ahead of US Initial Jobless Claims
- NZD/USD weakens as strong US data boosts the US Dollar, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged.
- US Retail Sales rose 0.6% to $735.9 billion in November, beating expectations after October’s 0.1% decline.
- The New Zealand Dollar weakens amid renewed US–China trade war concerns.
NZD/USD has pared its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 0.5740 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground after stronger-than-expected US economic data reinforced expectations that the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold in the coming months. Traders will also watch the weekly US Initial Jobless Claims data later in the day.
The US Census Bureau reported on Wednesday that Retail Sales rose more than expected to $735.9 billion in November, up 0.6%, following a 0.1% contraction in October and beating market expectations of a 0.4% increase. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hot in November, with both headline and core measures reaching 3% year-over-year (YoY).
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Wednesday that the overall economy seems quite resilient and that he has seen less tariff pass-through than expected. Kashkari added that inflation is still too high but is moving the right way. Moreover, Morgan Stanley analysts delayed their expectations for rate cuts to June and September from January and April following Friday’s jobs report.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) amid renewed trade-war concerns between the United States (US) and New Zealand’s key trading partner, China. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump signed two executive orders imposing a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors and authorizing potential levies on critical minerals.
The White House said the US is 100% net-import reliant on 12 critical minerals and more than 50% reliant on imports for 29 others, a dependence that has strengthened China’s leverage in recent US–China discussions due to its dominance in critical minerals and processing.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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