NZD/USD nears resistance at 0.5800 amid firmer tone – BBH

NZD/USD edges higher toward 0.5800 as New Zealand’s ANZ business outlook survey shows improving sentiment, with business confidence and expected own activity reaching multi-month highs. Despite the encouraging signals, the RBNZ remains on track to ease policy next month, with markets pricing a 90% chance of a 25bps rate cut to 2.25%, BBH FX analysts report.

RBNZ still expected to cut 25bps on Nov 26

"NZD/USD is a little firmer just under key resistance at 0.5800. New Zealand’s October ANZ business outlook survey suggests green shoots are emerging. Business confidence rose to an eight-month high at 58.1 vs. 49.6 in September, expected own activity jumped 2 points to a six-month high at 44.6% and reported past activity (the best GDP indicator) was little changed at +5."

"Nevertheless, the RBNZ remains on course to deliver additional easing because underlying inflation is within the RBNZ’s 1 to 3% target range. The next RBNZ policy decision/Monetary Policy Statement is on November 26 and markets price-in 90% odds of a 25bps cut to 2.25%. Resilient global economic activity offsets the drag to NZD from expectations of looser RBNZ policy."