EUR/GBP keeps hesitating around 0.8650 following UK employment data
- The Euro ticked up from daily lows against the Pound, despite positive UK employment data.
- Net employment increased beyond expectations in August, with lower-than-forecasted jobless claims
- EUR/GBP remains trapped between 0.8635 and 0.8665 with all eyes on the BoE.
The Euro ticked up on Tuesday’s early European session following better-than-expected UK employment figures. The pair, however, remains trading sideways without a clear bias, consolidating losses between 0.8635 and 0.8665 following a reversal from early September highs above 0.8700.
Data released by National Statistics on Tuesday revealed that the UK Claimant Count Change increased by 17.4K in August, following a 33.3K decline in July, yet below market expectations of a 20K increment.
Beyond that, net employment rose by 232K, following July’s 239K and beating expectations of a 22K increase. The ILO Unemployment rate remained steady at 4.7% and wage growth moderated to a 4.8% yearly rate in the three months to July, from the previous 5% level.
These figures hardly change investors’ expectations that the Bank of England will keep its benchmark Repo Rate on hold after Thursday’s meeting, before a further quarter-point cut later in the year.
From a technical perspective, the immediate bias remains bearish, with the mentioned 0.8635 (September 10,15 lows) providing support ahead of the mid and late-August lows at the 0.8600-0.8610 area. Upside attempts are limited to 0.8665 (September 10,11 highs).
Economic Indicator
Claimant Count Change
The Claimant Count Change released by the UK Office for National Statistics presents the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK claiming benefits. There is a tendency for the metric to influence GBP volatility. Usually, a rise in the indicator has negative implications for consumer spending and economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as bearish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bullish.
Read more.Last release: Tue Sep 16, 2025 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 17.4K
Consensus: 20.3K
Previous: -6.2K
Source: Office for National Statistics
The change in the number of those claiming jobless benefits is an early gauge of the UK’s labor market. The figures are released for the previous month, contrary to the Unemployment Rate, which is for the prior one. This release is scheduled around the middle of the month. An increase in applications is a sign of a worsening economic situation and implies looser monetary policy, while a decrease indicates improving conditions. A higher-than-expected outcome tends to be GBP-bearish.
Economic Indicator
Employment Change (3M)
Employment Change released by the UK Office for National Statistics represents the change in the number of people who were employed in the UK in the three months to the release period. Generally, a healthy and consistent increase of this figure is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a decrease is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Tue Oct 14, 2025 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: -
Previous: 232K
Source: Office for National Statistics
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