Tesla Poised for a Q3 “Delivery & Stock Price” Double Win as Wall Street Turns Bullish

TradingKey - Whether measured by stock price or vehicle deliveries, Tesla is staging a strong comeback in the third quarter — a sharp reversal from its earlier struggles this year. Following Goldman Sachs, both UBS and Wolfe Research have now raised their Q3 delivery forecasts.

Tesla will report its Q3 2025 delivery figures on October 2. Investors are watching closely to see whether the company’s brand image and industry position have improved amid key developments:

• CEO Elon Musk’s return to full-time leadership

• The impending expiration of the $7,500 U.S. EV tax credit (IRA)

• The launch of new models in China

Upgraded Delivery Forecasts

In a report on Monday, September 22, UBS raised its Q3 delivery estimate from 431,000 to 475,000 vehicles, 8% above the Visible Alpha consensus. The firm noted this revised figure aligns better with buy-side expectations of 470,000–475,000 units.

UBS cited improving demand across Tesla’s three key markets — U.S., Europe, and China — with particularly strong delivery growth in Turkey and South Korea.

The bank highlighted that the U.S. $7,500 IRA tax credit expires at the end of September, likely pulling forward demand into Q3. This could make Q3 Tesla’s strongest U.S. quarter since mid-2023. 

However, even with the planned launch of a lower-cost Model Y in Q4, deliveries are expected to decline sequentially due to the post-credit lull.

UBS also reported:

• 22% sequential increase in Tesla’s deliveries across Europe’s top eight markets in July and August

• 45% q/q rise in retail deliveries in China

Wolfe Research echoed this positive outlook, forecasting Q3 deliveries of 465,000–470,000, well above the consensus of 445,000, calling it a “strong quarter.”

Wolfe attributed the surge to:

• U.S. buyers accelerating purchases ahead of the tax credit deadline

• Strong delivery momentum in China — where it raised its China delivery forecast by 10,000 units to 165,000–170,000

Wolfe added that its China estimate does not yet include sales of the new extended-wheelbase, six-seat all-electric SUV — Model Y L, which began pre-orders in August and had its first deliveries in September.

Earlier reports indicated the Model Y L became an instant hit in key overseas markets, with over 35,000 orders on the first day and delivery timelines already extending into November.

Goldman Sachs Also Raises Outlook

Last week, Goldman Sachs upgraded Tesla’s vehicle business, raising its:

• Q3 delivery forecast from 430,000 to 455,000

• Q4 forecast from 443,000 to 450,000

Goldman attributed stronger second-half sales to:

• The launch of the Model Y L

• Improved consumer sentiment data

• The IRA tax credit cliff

Recent surveys by HundredX and Morning Consult show improving consumer purchase intent and sentiment toward Tesla. With Elon Musk scaling back political activities, consumers appear to be returning to the brand.

Stock Performance

On the equity front, Tesla’s stock has rebounded 33% since early September, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 2.75% gain. Year-to-date, Tesla is up 10%, having shed its label as the weakest performer among the Magnificent Seven.

Goldman Sachs, which recently raised its 12-month price target from $300 to $395, said further upside is possible if Tesla gains more traction in humanoid robots and autonomous driving.

However, UBS cautioned that while the updated delivery estimates may align with investor expectations, Tesla’s stock remains sensitive to delivery numbers that beat or miss forecasts.

The firm emphasized that Tesla’s primary valuation driver is still its AI narrative, not its automotive business.