Trump’s biggest opponent right now isn’t China, it’s the S&P 500

President Donald Trump has spent the last three months tearing through Washington like a battering ram, but the one thing stopping him isn’t China, NATO, or Congress. It’s the S&P 500.

Since returning to the White House, he’s bulldozed federal agencies, grabbed more power, pissed off allies, and flipped trade deals. But none of those made him back off—until the stock market tanked.

Every time the market bleeds, Trump pulls the brakes. Earlier this month, he rolled out a bunch of tariffs, then slammed them into a 90-day pause days later when US stocks sank and bond investors started panicking.

Just earlier this week, after pushing tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, he suddenly toned down the rhetoric. And after tossing around the idea of firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, he walked it back once the markets nose-dived again.

Trump reacts fast when stocks dive

According to reports from The Wall Street Journal, these reversals weren’t part of some clever chess strategy. Trump changed course after being shown market fallout projections by his team—Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told him staying aggressive would make things worse.

And he actually kind of admitted it, saying he put tariffs on hold because “people were getting a little queasy” after watching the bond market meltdown.

The White House says all of this is part of a plan to pressure other countries into trade deals. Kush Desai, a spokesman, claimed, “The only interest guiding President Trump’s decision-making is the best interest of the American people.”

But behind closed doors, Trump was allegedly hearing loud warnings from business leaders. On Monday, he met with executives from Target, Walmart, and Home Depot, who said the tariffs would trash supply chains and spike prices.

Trump’s former adviser, David Urban, said the president is glued to the markets. He watches TV nonstop and keeps track of every chart. “He looks at the markets as a barometer of how things are going,” David said. “In his view, it’s an important barometer of people’s opinion of life and the financial world.”

But his strategy doesn’t line up. He wants stock prices up but also wants to punish trade partners and bring factories back. David explained the contradiction: “There’s this inherent tension with the president’s love for the markets and his disdain for the American worker being played. That’s the tension we’re seeing play out right now.”

Markets hit hard while Trump blames others

Since Trump took office again, the S&P 500 has dropped 10%, the worst start to any presidency in nearly a century. He blamed it on former president Joe Biden, saying he inherited a “sick” market. During his campaign, he warned that electing Kamala Harris would cause a “Kamala crash” and a full-scale depression.

Even as markets collapse, Trump keeps pumping out messages that everything’s fine. After the tariff announcement caused the biggest sell-off in years, he posted, “I think it’s going very well—The MARKETS are going to BOOM. THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO GET RICH.” Then, when he reversed course, he posted, “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!” The markets jumped after the pause, and Trump bragged that Charles Schwab, who had lunch at the White House, made $2.5 billion on the rebound.

Oh, but Trump’s team isn’t done. In a TV interview, Scott didn’t rule out removing Chinese companies from US stock exchanges. The president himself still talks about his old market wins. In a 2017 interview with ABC News, he said, “I’m very proud of that. Now we have to go up, up, up,” after the Dow Jones hit 20,000. 

Trump claimed the market grew by 88% during his first term. It was actually closer to 67%, which beat Biden’s 56%. But Barack Obama’s first term outperformed both, as the economy bounced back from the 2008 financial crisis.

After Trump won the 2024 election, the Dow surged with its biggest daily gain in two years. But those gains? Gone! Completely wiped out.