Kinder Morgan Raises 2025 Outlook

Energy infrastructure specialist Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) posted its fiscal 2025 second-quarter results on July 16, 2025, reporting a 6% rise in adjusted EBITDA compared to the prior year and a 12% increase in adjusted EPS versus Q2 2024. The company raised its project backlog to $9.3 billion, secured $1.3 billion in new projects, and signaled its intention to exceed its original 2025 annual budget, which already includes the Outrigger acquisition.

The following insights examine critical competitive, regulatory, and growth dynamics with concrete supporting data and management perspectives.

Positive Regulatory Shifts and Project Backlog Expansion Boost Kinder Morgan's Competitive Position

The federal permitting environment has improved, driven by actions from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and recent legislative changes. Nearly two-thirds of the project backlog is concentrated in five major projects, with only a minimal tariff impact of approximately 1% of the projects' cost.

"The federal permitting environment has improved. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is issuing permits very quickly. ... The recent budget reconciliation bill delivers nice tax benefits, including incentives for investment and expanded interest deduction. As a result, we expect significant cash tax benefits in 2026 and 2027 and do not expect Kinder Morgan to be a material cash taxpayer until 2028. The one fly in the ointment is tariffs. However, at this point, we still do not believe that the tariffs will have a significant impact on project economics. ... our project backlog increased from $8.8 billion to $9.3 billion during the quarter. We added $1.3 billion in new projects and placed approximately $750 million of projects in service."
— Kimberly Allen Dang, Chief Executive Officer

Improvements in permitting, tax advantages, and minimal tariff impact support Kinder Morgan’s capacity to invest in projects and pursue long-term growth.

LNG and Power Demand Will Drive Volumetric and Contract-Backed Pipeline Growth

Kinder Morgan transported approximately 40% of U.S. feed gas for liquified natural gas (LNG) export (as stated on the Q2 2025 earnings call), and S&P Global forecasts a 3.5 BCF/day increase in U.S. LNG feed gas demand this summer compared to 2024, with expectations to more than double by 2030. Existing and new pipeline projects, including Trident, Kinderhawk, and the Texas Access Project, benefit from this demand and are secured by long-term contracts with creditworthy counterparties, with nearly 50% of the backlog anchored to the power sector as of Q2 2025.

"As much as when you add the international LNG growth, the robust need for gas to satisfy U.S. domestic power and industrial demand, examples of which are reflected in the new expansions that Kim and the team will be discussing on this call, it signals to me that the positive natural gas story has legs and will last for decades to come."
— Rich Kinder, Executive Chairman

Exposure to multi-decade LNG and domestic power demand -- coupled with contractual fee-based structures -- enhances long-term cash flow visibility, with growth tied to secular U.S. natural gas and global LNG trends rather than commodity price volatility.

Balance Sheet Strength and Investment Discipline Underpin Kinder Morgan's Growth Strategy

Net income attributable to the company was $715 million, up 24% year over year, while net debt to adjusted EBITDA declined to 4x (targeting a reduction to 3.9x by year-end). Kinder Morgan’s dividend increased by 2% to $1.17 per share annualized, supported by strong operating cash flow ($2.811 billion in the first half of 2025) and a disciplined approach requiring project returns to justify capital outlays across contract types.

"Our net debt has increased by $623 million from the beginning of the year, and here's a high-level reconciliation of that change. We generated cash flow from operations of $2.811 billion for the first two quarters. We paid dividends of $1.3 billion. We've invested total capital of $1.42 billion. The Outrigger acquisition was approximately $3.65 billion, and all of our other items were a use of cash."
— David Michels, Chief Financial Officer

This combination of rising distributable income, prudent leverage, and disciplined investment supports Kinder Morgan’s ability to self-fund growth, return capital to shareholders, and maintain credit quality.

Looking Ahead

Management expects to exceed its original 2025 budget, with the adjusted EBITDA growth forecast for 2025 raised from 4% to at least 5% due to the Outrigger acquisition. The company will remain a negligible federal cash taxpayer until 2028, citing substantial 2026–2027 tax reform benefits. Incremental project sanctioning is anticipated as LNG and power demand pipelines progress.

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JesterAI is a Foolish AI, based on a variety of Large Language Models (LLMs) and proprietary Motley Fool systems. All articles published by JesterAI are reviewed by our editorial team, and The Motley Fool takes ultimate responsibility for the content of this article. JesterAI cannot own stocks and so it has no positions in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Kinder Morgan and S&P Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.