Netflix Stock Just Notched a New All-Time High. Is This a Brilliant "Recession-Proof" Stock Pick?

While most of the tech sector is off its all-time highs by 20% or so, Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) recently notched a new all-time high. Most of the market fears how trade wars and tariffs could affect the economy, but Netflix seems immune to those fears.

One conclusion could explain Netflix stock's resilience: The market seems to think it's recession-proof. So, is this the case? And if it is, does the stock have more room to run? Let's take a look.

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Netflix is a service that's unlikely to be cut during a recession

Netflix isn't a company that needs an introduction. Nearly everyone (or seemingly everyone) has a Netflix account or has access to one, although the latter has become a bit rarer due to the password sharing crackdown. Even if a person doesn't have access to it at the moment, it's a subscription service that many people come back to once a new show arrives or a hit series debuts.

Even though Netflix hiked its prices, it still offers great value for its content. You can get access to thousands of titles every month for less than the price of a family dinner. That's a pretty compelling offer, and it could make Netflix a resilient company if consumers' resources start to get stretched thin.

This could give it the "recession-proof" moniker, which is a title rarely bestowed upon companies.

But after it recently notched a new all-time high, is now the time to buy some shares?

Netflix's stock trades at a premium valuation

Netflix's market cap is around $481 billion. However, according to co-CEO Ted Sarandos, Netflix's internal goal is to reach a $1 trillion valuation by 2030. That would indicate the stock will double in under six years, which would make it well worth owning. But is that realistic?

It should be noted that Sarandos also set the goal of the company's revenue doubling by 2030, so at least some financial results are tied to the valuation. Otherwise, it would just be a baseless prediction.

The problem is that Netflix already has an ultra-premium valuation that could hinder this goal.

After its most recent all-time high, Netflix trades for a pricey 52.5 times earnings and 43 times forward earnings.

NFLX PE Ratio data by YCharts. PE = price-to-earnings.

While some of Netflix's big tech peers used to have valuations like that, most sold off due to economic fears. Additionally, those same companies are expected to grow similarly to or faster than Netflix's pace over the next few years.

Here's how Netflix stacks up to some of those companies:

Data source: YCharts and Yahoo! Finance. Note: Projected revenue growth is from Wall Street analysts. Nvidia's projections are for FY 2026 and FY 2027.

Although it's expected to grow similarly to Alphabet and Meta Platforms, its stock has around double the premium these two do. Even a high-growth competitor like Nvidia is valued at far less than Netflix, which leads me to assume that there's a ton of growth already baked into Netflix's stock price.

At 43 times forward earnings, Netflix's stock is just too expensive to make a solid profit. While it may succeed in the coming years, the values that other stocks provide are far greater. As a result, investors should consider scooping up shares of some of Netflix's big tech peers while they're on sale, rather than buying Netflix itself. The time has come and gone to buy Netflix shares; it's time to look elsewhere.

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Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Keithen Drury has positions in Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Netflix, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.