Nvidia Is Nearly Cheaper Than the S&P 500 Using This 1 Important Metric. Is It Time to Buy?

Source The Motley Fool

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has been notorious for being a high-growth, highly valued stock since its run began in early 2023. However, that's no longer the case using this one common and important evaluation metric. Now, it's nearly the same price as the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), which is an odd thing to say considering how much growth Nvidia is expected to put up over the next few years.

However, this metric has one important consideration, and it could be giving investors false hope.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »

The forward price-to-earnings metric is useful if you understand its nuances

The valuation metric that I most like to use -- and the one that's relevant in this discussion -- is the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. By definition, forward earnings haven't been achieved yet; they're just projections. As a result, they are inherently flawed because these predictions rarely come true. Furthermore, because the forward P/E ratio uses multiple analyst projections to come up with an average value, not every one of them can be right. But the average of all of them gives investors an idea of where the company's earnings could be heading, which is important considering how the market works.

The market isn't a rearward-looking entity. If it were, then tariff concerns wouldn't affect the stock market because it would only be looking at the past when tariffs weren't an issue. This is why the trailing P/E ratio is somewhat irrelevant (in my opinion) because it looks at where the stock has been, not where it's going. Still, the trailing P/E ratio can be a useful metric in conjunction with the forward P/E, as investors need to make sure earnings aren't going to fall off a cliff in future quarters.

The forward P/E ratio is especially useful for high-growth companies like Nvidia, as valuing it on trailing earnings when monster growth is expected in the next few quarters isn't a wise move. From this standpoint, Nvidia has nearly reached the same level as the S&P 500.

NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) Chart

NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts

At 22.4 times forward earnings, Nvidia is only slightly more expensive than the S&P 500's 19.8 times forward earnings valuation. This is despite the fact that Wall Street analysts project 54% revenue growth in FY 2026 (ending January 2026) and 23% growth in FY 2027.

However, this price could be artificially low, as analysts might be waiting for Nvidia to report first quarter earnings before adjusting their projections. There are plenty of fears surrounding Nvidia, especially with tariffs looming. But is this enough to avoid the stock?

Reports are mixed on chip demand

Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs) have become the go-to computing components for training and running AI models. As more computing power is needed for these models, Nvidia will sell more. However, some AI hyperscalers have been slowing their data center expansion plans. None of these reports jive with what their management said just a few weeks ago, and they don't fit with what critical supplier Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM) stated.

In TSMC's Q1 results, its CEO noted, "We understand there are uncertainties and risks from the potential impact of tariff policies. However, we have not seen any change in our customers' behavior so far." Nvidia uses TSMC's foundry to produce its chips, which clearly indicates that Nvidia hasn't canceled a bunch of its chip orders from TSMC yet.

That doesn't mean there won't be a slowdown, but the market is currently assuming the worst-case scenario for Nvidia's business, which is why the stock is down so much. As a result, I think right now represents an excellent buying opportunity, as long as you can stay patient with the stock for three to five years. If you can, there's a high probability that Nvidia will crush the market over that time frame.

Don’t miss this second chance at a potentially lucrative opportunity

Ever feel like you missed the boat in buying the most successful stocks? Then you’ll want to hear this.

On rare occasions, our expert team of analysts issues a “Double Down” stock recommendation for companies that they think are about to pop. If you’re worried you’ve already missed your chance to invest, now is the best time to buy before it’s too late. And the numbers speak for themselves:

  • Nvidia: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2009, you’d have $276,000!*
  • Apple: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2008, you’d have $39,505!*
  • Netflix: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2004, you’d have $591,533!*

Right now, we’re issuing “Double Down” alerts for three incredible companies, available when you join Stock Advisor, and there may not be another chance like this anytime soon.

See the 3 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of April 21, 2025

Keithen Drury has positions in Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Gold price hits two-week high as USD declines on deteriorating US fiscal outlookGold price (XAU/USD) prolongs the uptrend for the fourth consecutive day and climbs to a nearly two-week high, around the $3,344-3,345 area during the Asian session on Thursday.
Author  FXStreet
9 hours ago
Gold price (XAU/USD) prolongs the uptrend for the fourth consecutive day and climbs to a nearly two-week high, around the $3,344-3,345 area during the Asian session on Thursday.
placeholder
Shiba Inu’s Shibarium Struggles As New Accounts Crash To Fresh LowsFollowing its launch by the Shiba Inu team back in August 2023, the Shibarium network has been subject to the highs and lows of the market.
Author  NewsBTC
9 hours ago
Following its launch by the Shiba Inu team back in August 2023, the Shibarium network has been subject to the highs and lows of the market.
placeholder
GBP/USD falls to near 1.3400 following mixed UK PMI dataGBP/USD is depreciating after the mixed S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data was released on Thursday. The pair has maintained its position near 1.3468, the highest since February 2022, reached on Wednesday, and is trading around 1.3410 during the European hours.
Author  FXStreet
10 hours ago
GBP/USD is depreciating after the mixed S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data was released on Thursday. The pair has maintained its position near 1.3468, the highest since February 2022, reached on Wednesday, and is trading around 1.3410 during the European hours.
placeholder
EUR/USD briefly dips as Eurozone PMIs unexpectedly declineEUR/USD faces selling pressure and falls to near 1.1310 during European trading hours on Thursday. The major currency pair drops as the Euro (EUR) underperforms after the release of the surprisingly weak preliminary Eurozone HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for May.
Author  FXStreet
11 hours ago
EUR/USD faces selling pressure and falls to near 1.1310 during European trading hours on Thursday. The major currency pair drops as the Euro (EUR) underperforms after the release of the surprisingly weak preliminary Eurozone HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for May.
placeholder
AUD/JPY falls below 92.50, further downside appears due to rising odds of BoJ rate hikesAUD/JPY hits a fresh two-week low, with trading around 92.30 during the European hours on Thursday.
Author  FXStreet
11 hours ago
AUD/JPY hits a fresh two-week low, with trading around 92.30 during the European hours on Thursday.
goTop
quote