Neocloud Stocks Have Sunk by More Than 30% This Month. What Does That Mean for Anthropic's IPO?

Shares of several artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure companies have plunged in October just as Anthropic prepares for one of the biggest initial public offerings (IPOs) in history. Neoclouds CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV), Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS), and IREN (NASDAQ: IREN) are all down more than 30% this month.

Wall Street is getting nervous about AI spending

Neocloud companies provide computing infrastructure that's optimized for training and operating AI models. Unlike larger and better-established cloud providers, they generally have fewer revenue streams and less financial flexibility to support their investments into new compute capacity.

Their strategy of borrowing heavily to build rapidly works when demand for compute is growing fast and financing remains available. But it becomes much riskier when borrowing costs rise or its customers reduce spending. Research firm Gartner recently warned that as many as 80% of neocloud companies could cease operating independently by 2030, in part because "enterprise and consumer AI revenue will be insufficient to support profitable returns on all planned AI capital expenditures."

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CoreWeave, Nebius, and several other providers have also reported quarterly losses, raising questions about how quickly their enormous infrastructure investments will generate sustainable profits. Bottom line: The recent sell-off suggests investors are becoming less willing to finance AI infrastructure spending without clearer evidence that those investments will pay off well enough to justify them.

Anthropic's financial results tell a complicated story

Anthropic's IPO filing offers plenty of evidence that demand for its Claude AI models is accelerating. Revenue reached $16.3 billion in the first half of 2026, up about 1,300% from the prior-year period. The company also reported more than 11,900 customers generating at least $100,000 in annual revenue as of Sept. 30. Worth noting: Anthropic posted an $80.7 billion net loss during the first six months of 2026, although approximately $72.4 billion of that resulted from noncash accounting adjustments tied largely to its rising valuation.

The company also disclosed substantial long-term computing commitments, including agreements that could extend well into the next decade. Those commitments impose financial obligations on it that won't necessarily disappear if its revenue growth slows.

There was some encouraging news, though. Anthropic reported approximately $131.7 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments at the end of June. That provides it with a fair amount of financial flexibility, although it doesn't eliminate the risks associated with its spending commitments.

Could this IPO be arriving at the wrong time?

Anthropic's rapid growth makes it fundamentally different from a neocloud company. It sells access to AI models and services rather than renting capacity on computing infrastructure. Still, both types of business depend on continued demand for AI.

Anthropic could land a valuation between $1.5 trillion and $1.75 trillion when it goes public. At those levels, you would be paying an enormous premium for its expected future growth. Of course, October's neocloud sell-off doesn't mean Anthropic's IPO will fail. But it does suggest Wall Street is becoming more thoughtful about AI sector valuations.

Anthropic has demonstrated that customers are willing to spend heavily on its technology. Now it needs to demonstrate that its growth can eventually translate into sustainable profits. But until the company announces its IPO price, it will be impossible to gauge whether the stock represents an attractive investment.

Jeff Siegel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.