NuScale Is Already Down 70%. Here's the Price I'd Actually Start Buying.

Shares of NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) have fallen roughly 70% over the past year. Today, it trades around $9.70, making it look a lot more interesting relative to its 52-week high of $ 57.42. But I'm still not a buyer. Not until it gets closer to around $7 a share. Let me explain.

To be sure, NuScale has a lot going for it. Its 77-megawatt small modular reactor design received approval from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 2025, and the company has assembled a supply chain of more than 60 specialized partners. That's a big deal given what it takes to build a nuclear power company from scratch.

Then there's the company's commercialization partner, ENTRA1 Energy, which is working with the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) on a potential deployment of up to 6 gigawatts of NuScale reactors. That could eventually involve 72 NuScale modules and would be one of the largest nuclear energy deployments in U.S. history.

Image source: Getty Images.

None of this is trivial, but the problem is that it's still only a potential scenario. ENTRA1 and TVA haven't signed a definitive power purchase agreement. Meanwhile, NuScale isn't really generating any meaningful commercial revenue yet. Revenue in the second quarter was only about $75,000. Indeed, the stock remains highly speculative.

The balance sheet is strong

Despite the speculation, NuScale finished June with approximately $1.9 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments. That's an enormous cushion for a nuclear energy company at this stage of development. Although shareholders paid for some of it.

During the first six months of 2026, NuScale sold nearly 89.7 million shares through an at-the-market offering, raising about $985 million after expenses. That's significant dilution, and investors shouldn't assume additional capital raises are off the table forever.

At roughly $9.70, NuScale still carries a market capitalization of around $4 billion. That's difficult for me to justify for an energy company with almost no revenue and no binding order for its first major commercial nuclear power project.

Why I'd buy at $7

At $7 per share, NuScale would be roughly another 28% below today's price and slightly below its current 52-week low of $7.21. I'd start with a small position there. Not because $7 magically makes NuScale cheap. It doesn't. But it gives me a better margin of safety while still providing enormous upside if the TVA project becomes real. There's also a scenario where I'd buy above $7.

If ENTRA1 signs a binding agreement with TVA and NuScale finally has a clear path toward deploying dozens of reactors, I'd be willing to pay more because the risk would have changed. The bottom line is that at $7, I'm interested. Below $6, I'd get much more aggressive.

Jeff Siegel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.