Is a 53% Decline a Stopping Point for the SpaceX Stock Price? History Offers This Answer.

When Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) went public on June 12, it instantly became one of the most valuable public companies in the world. That already places a lot of pressure on SpaceX to live up to expectations, especially as it reports its 2026 second-quarter earnings on Aug. 4.

If SpaceX doesn't offer what investors are looking for in that report, and given that some insiders can sell their shares on Aug. 6, it may continue to put downward pressure on the stock price.

That said, if the stock keeps dropping and history is any indication, after reaching a certain price point, SpaceX may be oversold and offer a buying opportunity.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Where SpaceX stock could ultimately land

Nothing says the SpaceX stock price has to keep falling or that it will fall by a certain percentage. But if it follows the path of another former highly anticipated initial public offering (IPO), there could be further losses ahead.

According to Barron's, when Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook) went public in May 2012, the stock price was down by 53% roughly four months after the IPO.

However, that was a bottom for Meta's stock price. The stock price shot up 140% over the next 12 months, and the long-term gains were even more meaningful. As of July 28, Meta shares were up 3,250% from that low after the 2012 IPO.

For SpaceX, a 53% drop from its IPO price of $135 would put it at around $63. It is currently trading down about 52% from its 52-week high, set less than a week after the IPO.

The potential for further declines

If the SpaceX earnings report underwhelms and some insiders sell their shares afterward, that could send the stock price lower. As we saw with Meta, however, a bottoming out could create an opportunity for aggressive investors.

When SpaceX listed its total addressable market as $28.5 trillion in its S-1 filing, $26.5 trillion of that was in artificial intelligence (AI). It's already racking up deals with companies like Alphabet and Anthropic to rent out compute capacity from its data centers, which could generate $26 billion in total annual revenue for SpaceX. That, however, is just the start of the AI infrastructure from which it can build and generate sales.

According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, lawmakers in 15 U.S. states are considering banning the development of data centers. That pushback against ground-based data centers may eventually give SpaceX an edge, as it could develop an early lead in getting space-based data centers up and running.

In January, SpaceX submitted an application to the U.S. Federal Communications Commission to launch 1 million AI satellites to serve as data centers, and it expects to launch its first round of AI satellites in 2028.

For aggressive investors who see the upside, rather than trying to time a bottom, they could consider actively following the price, and buying during pullbacks. At some point, as with Meta, the sell-off could be overdone.

Jack Delaney has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.