Prediction: Here's What SpaceX Stock Will Do After Its First Earnings Report

In two weeks, on Aug. 4, Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) is scheduled to release its first quarterly earnings report after going public through an initial public offering (IPO) in June. Better known as SpaceX, the technology company that raised the most capital in an IPO in history, is now settling into the routine of a publicly traded company.

Here's my prediction for what happens to SpaceX after this quarterly earnings report, and why it will have little to no bearing on the stock over the next 10 years.

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX saw fast revenue growth, but more losses

SpaceX is the leading private spaceflight company that is also trying to expand into an artificial intelligence (AI) giant. Heading into the IPO, its Starlink connectivity business was seeing the most growth, posting 50% year-over-year revenue growth in 2025. Investors should expect more of this stellar growth to continue in Q2 of 2026.

The company is working on massive new projects, including the Starship rocket, AI data centers, and orbital AI compute. Spending on these projects will likely keep the company in the red in the second quarter, just as it was in 2025, with operating earnings of negative $2.5 billion. SpaceX spent $21 billion on capital expenditures in 2025 while generating $18.7 billion in revenue, mainly from Starlink. This makes it one of the most aggressive spenders in the AI infrastructure boom.

Revenue will begin to show up from AI compute contracts with the likes of Alphabet, Anthropic, and others, but it will likely be many years -- if ever -- before these deals turn a profit for SpaceX.

What matters over the next few quarters is different than what matters over the next decade

Regardless of what SpaceX reports financially this quarter, there is only one thing that will drive the share price for the rest of 2026: the end of various lockup periods for insider shareholders. Of the 13 billion total shares outstanding in SpaceX, 4.6 billion are currently in a lockup period and cannot be traded. Twenty percent of these shares get unlocked two days after Q2 earnings, with many long-term investors likely looking to sell and return capital to investors who put money into SpaceX in its early days.

The rest of the float gets unlocked over the rest of 2026, excluding Elon Musk's shares. With a flood of selling pressure on the horizon, it is likely that SpaceX's stock price will fall over the rest of 2026. This does not change the fundamentals of the business, which depend on the commercial viability of Starship and AI data centers in orbit over the next decade, but it does mean a volatile post-IPO share price is more likely.

Brett Schafer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.