Prediction: Apple Will Become the Second Company in History to Reach a $5 Trillion Market Cap. Here's the Math.
Key Points
Apple closed Wednesday at a record high, giving it a market cap of about $4.81 trillion.
A move of about 4%, to roughly $340 per share, would put Apple at $5 trillion.
Nvidia is the only company that has ever reached the milestone.
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Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is about 4% away from a $5 trillion market cap. If the stock climbs from Wednesday's record close of $327.50 to about $340, the iPhone maker will become the second company in history, after Nvidia, to reach the mark. My prediction is that it happens before the end of 2026.
The math is simple. Reaching $5 trillion means adding roughly $190 billion in value, which works out to a share price around $340 -- a climb of about 4% from here.
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Image source: Apple.
Apple has momentum working in its favor. Shares jumped 4% on Wednesday to a fresh all-time high, and the stock has now risen more than 60% from its 52-week low of $201.50.
The business is backing the move. Apple's revenue for its fiscal second quarter, the period ended March 28, rose 17% year over year to $111.2 billion, and earnings per share climbed 22%. The company's services business posted an all-time revenue record of $31 billion. Additionally, Apple's board also authorized an additional $100 billion in share repurchases in April, extending buybacks that steadily support demand for the stock.
There's another potential catalyst on the calendar, too. Apple typically reports its June-quarter results in late July, and another quarter of double-digit growth could give the stock the push that carries it the final 4%.
Of course, the milestone isn't a given. Apple trades at about 38 times earnings -- a steep multiple that arguably leaves the stock vulnerable if growth disappoints. A 4% gain is small, but it isn't guaranteed.
Even so, the setup favors the milestone. Nvidia showed it can be done when it became the first company valued at $5 trillion last October, and Apple is now the world's second-most-valuable company, ahead of third-place Alphabet. With revenue growth accelerating, a record services business, and $100 billion in fresh buyback firepower, a 4% move looks like a low bar.
In short, I don't just think Apple will join the $5 trillion club; I think there's a good chance it will do so this year.
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Daniel Sparks and his clients have positions in Apple. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Apple, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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