Is SpaceX About to Fall Below IPO Price? SPCX Share Price Plunges in Three-Day Losing Streak, Nearing $135 IPO Price

TradingKey - SpaceX shares extend their three-day decline to approach $135; losing this level could trigger a further drop of over 25%.

During pre-market trading on July 15, Eastern Time, Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies, SpaceX ( SPCX) rebounded slightly by 1% to temporarily trade around $137. Yesterday, SpaceX shares fell 2.2% in a single day, touching an intraday low of $135.52, which is just a stone's throw away from its IPO offering price of $135, facing significant pressure to break below its IPO price.

Last month, SpaceX went public with an IPO price of $135 per share, valuing the company at approximately $1.77 trillion. On June 12, SpaceX opened its first day of trading at $150, surging about 19% on its debut to push its market capitalization past the $2 trillion mark. Subsequently, SPCX enjoyed a three-day winning streak, soaring to $225.64 on June 16, with its market cap briefly approaching $2.66 trillion, marking a historical record high.

Following a brief period of prosperity, SpaceX shares entered a slow downward trend, immediately experiencing a three-day slide and staging a highly volatile "roller-coaster" ride, subsequently falling below its first-day opening price of $150. In late June, SpaceX shares saw a brief rebound before continuing to weaken. In the past three trading days, as market enthusiasm faded and financial concerns over acquisitions arose, SpaceX suffered another three-day decline, pushing close to its offering price, representing a cumulative drop of 39.5% from its peak. Why did SpaceX's stock price fall so much in just one month?

In the early stages of its listing, extremely high market sentiment pushed SpaceX shares to continuously soar. However, after the hype faded, investors began to calmly assess and confront its fundamentals, particularly the massive losses and capital expenditure pressures. Although SpaceX's Starlink performed brilliantly in the first quarter of 2026, with 10.3 million subscribers and $1.2 billion in operating profit, SpaceX as a whole still faces severe losses. The full-year GAAP operating loss for 2025 reached $2.59 billion, while the operating loss for the single quarter of Q1 2026 widened to $1.94 billion due to a staggering $10.1 billion in capital expenditures.

After raising a massive $75 billion in equity funding, SpaceX quickly announced plans in late June to issue $20 billion in investment-grade unsecured bonds. Issuing debt so quickly after the largest IPO in history unsettled equity investors, who worried about SpaceX's future rate of capital burn. More critically, SpaceX's bonds fell below par value less than a month after listing, trading at under $100.

In addition, SpaceX has an extremely low free float of only about 4%, with the vast majority of shares still held by insiders and early institutional shareholders. According to its listing terms, after SpaceX releases its first quarterly earnings report since listing (expected on September 2 this year), approximately 20% of insider holdings will be unlocked and allowed to trade in the market, with the remainder being gradually released after a 180-day lockup period. Facing potential selling pressure, investors have chosen to take a "wait-and-see" approach or reduce their holdings in advance.

Currently, SpaceX has broken below the support level of $150, and will next test its IPO price. This is the institutional price, which is expected to attract capital to support the stock. However, if this level is unfortunately lost, it could head toward $100, which is a psychological barrier. Although Wall Street remains optimistic about SpaceX—for instance, Morgan Stanley is bullish up to $300, and Bank of America has a target price of $235—it is unlikely to break above $150 in the short term.

SpaceX stock chart, Source: TradingView