SpaceX Fell Below Its Debut Price. History Says a $10,000 Investment Will be Worth This Much in a Year.

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) splashed onto the scene just a few weeks ago when it completed the world's biggest initial public offering, raising more than $85 billion after the exercise of an overallotment option. Of course, SpaceX wasn't new to investors -- the company had been making headlines for years, particularly for its rocket launches for NASA. But this was the first time investors, from retail to professional, could easily invest in the company.

Demand was high during the IPO -- it was greatly oversubscribed -- and during the first days of trading. The stock soared 50% from its $150 debut price to a peak of $225 on June 16. In recent days, though, SpaceX has lost the positive momentum. In fact, the stock has slipped below its debut price.

If you had invested $10,000 in SpaceX's early days of trading, how much would this investment be worth in a year? History offers us a very clear answer.

Image source: Getty Images.

Exciting growth businesses

First, though, let's take a quick look at the SpaceX story. The company has attracted investors thanks to its exciting growth businesses and its ambitious leader, Elon Musk. SpaceX operates in rocket launches, satellite-based internet, and artificial intelligence (AI), areas that each could drive significant revenue gains if they reach certain goals. And speaking of goals, many are ambitious, but if the company can accomplish them, they could be game changers. For example, SpaceX aims to develop data centers in space, and its most ambitious goal may be to colonize Mars.

What's interesting about this mix of businesses is that they fit together nicely, with accomplishments of one driving gains in another. SpaceX's work to make reusable rockets and drive down the costs of launches will help it launch equipment more cheaply and quickly into space for its other businesses.

Elon Musk is the chief executive officer behind these ambitions, and while some investors aren't fans of his strategies, others are -- and they generally rush to bet on Musk. The popularity of the SpaceX IPO is proof of this.

$18 billion in revenue

SpaceX has made progress in various areas -- it aims to launch its fully reusable rocket, Starship, with payloads later this year -- and is delivering growth. Revenue last year climbed more than 30% to $18 billion. But SpaceX needs to invest heavily to support the development of its technology, and this pushed the company to a $4.9 billion loss. This may continue, considering the complexity of the technology involved in the company's businesses.

Now, let's consider the potential value of a $10,000 investment in SpaceX after the stock's first full year of trading. A look at some of the biggest IPOs, from Meta Platforms to Uber Technologies, shows that eight out of 10 fell in their first 12 months on the stock market. Seven of them delivered double-digit declines, and the average drop was 12%.

We might consider SpaceX's performance as falling into the average, and here's why: On its first day of trading, it climbed nearly 20%. According to a study by Jay Ritter of the University of Florida, the average first-day return of more than 6,000 IPOs between 1990 and 2025 was just over 21%.

So if we also apply the average drop seen in our look at 10 major IPOs to SpaceX, we come up with the following: History shows us that your $10,000 investment in SpaceX would be worth $8,800 after 12 months.

Major IPOs in general haven't delivered gains after their first year on the market, and the greatly popular SpaceX could follow unless it breaks with this historical trend, which, of course, is possible. Still, all of this means that investors shouldn't necessarily rush to get in on IPO stocks, as there may be better entry points down the road.

Adria Cimino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.