5 of America's Biggest Banks Report Q2 Earnings Tuesday. Here's What Wall Street Is Watching.

Second-quarter earnings season kicks off before Tuesday's open, when five of America's biggest banks report. JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) have all confirmed they are reporting results on Tuesday morning specifically.

That's a lot to digest at once. But what moves bank stocks typically comes down to just two or three things -- how much a bank earns from lending as rates move, the provisions set aside for loans that may sour, and the fees from investment banking and trading. Here's what each is most exposed to.

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1. JPMorgan Chase: the bellwether

As the largest U.S. bank, JPMorgan sets the tone. Net income rose 13% year over year to $16.5 billion in the first quarter, and net interest income (NII) -- the gap between what a bank earns on loans and pays on deposits -- reached $25.4 billion, up 9%.

The other big driver is Wall Street. JPMorgan booked a record $11.6 billion in markets revenue, with investment banking fees up 28%. On Tuesday, watch whether it lifts its full-year NII outlook, and eye credit card charge-offs for an early read on the consumer.

2. Wells Fargo: leaning on net interest income

Of the group, Wells Fargo is the closest thing to a pure bet on NII. It leans more on lending than trading or dealmaking, so the rate backdrop matters most to its results. Management has guided for full-year NII of about $50 billion, expected to build through the year.

The Federal Reserve lifted the asset cap it imposed on the bank in 2018 -- a limit that had constrained its balance sheet for years -- so Wells Fargo can now grow loans and deposits again. Tuesday offers another look at how fast that freedom shows up in the numbers.

3. Citigroup: a turnaround meets the consumer

Citigroup is the group's turnaround play, and its latest quarter suggested it's taking hold. Revenue rose 14% to $24.6 billion, and return on tangible common equity -- a core profitability gauge CEO Jane Fraser has staked her overhaul on -- reached 13.1%.

But Citigroup is also one of the country's largest credit card lenders, a useful window into consumer health. The number to watch Tuesday is the provision for credit losses -- the money set aside for loans that may go bad. A rising provision would signal management is bracing for more strain on borrowers.

4. Goldman Sachs: the deal machine

Goldman Sachs is arguably the most direct bet on a dealmaking rebound. With little consumer lending, its fortunes rise and fall with investment banking and trading. In the first quarter, that paid off. Investment banking fees jumped 48% to $2.84 billion, driven by a surge in completed mergers and stronger equity underwriting -- selling new stock, including initial public offerings.

Trading was strong, too, with fixed-income and equities desks together pulling in more than $9 billion. If the deal pipeline held up through the second quarter, Goldman's results could signal a broader recovery in banking.

5. Bank of America: built for higher-for-longer

Bank of America is among the most deposit-funded lenders, resting on a huge base of low-cost checking and savings accounts. That makes it especially sensitive to rates -- when they stay elevated, the spread it earns on that money widens. After a strong first quarter, management raised its full-year 2026 NII growth guidance to 6% to 8%.

The consumer looks healthy so far: the bank kept adding deposits and ended the quarter with a record 38.5 million consumer checking accounts. It also returns a good chunk of its profit to shareholders through dividends. On Tuesday, the updated NII guidance is the number to watch for how much higher-for-longer rates are helping.

How to read Tuesday

Put it together, and the through-line is interest rates. The Federal Reserve has held its benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, and signaled that cuts are unlikely this year -- the latest projections even point to a possible hike. That backdrop should keep NII working in the lenders' favor, and it's the number I'll watch most.

Of course, provisions matter just as much, since they're the first place any weakening in consumer credit would show. So, Citigroup's card trends are worth a look.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs will reveal whether the dealmaking rebound has staying power.

These have long been value stocks, trading at a discount to the broader market, so a solid quarter doesn't demand heroic assumptions to pay off. Personally, I care less about the headline numbers on Tuesday than about the guidance and the credit trends -- they point to where the next few quarters are headed. A jump in provisions would give me pause. Steady credit and firmer NII guidance would keep me upbeat.

Wells Fargo is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan Chase. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.