Is American Express Stock a Bargain?

Source The Motley Fool

Key Points

  • Revenue and net income continue to trend higher -- plus, there's a new partnership with the NFL.

  • Its cardholders are resilient during economic distress, which offers more insulation from uncertainty.

  • The stock trades at a lower valuation than peers despite delivering a similar three-year revenue growth rate.

  • 10 stocks we like better than American Express ›

American Express (NYSE: AXP) has stumbled out of the gate and is down by roughly 10% halfway through the year. However, that can soon change when the global payments company reports earnings on July 24. First-quarter earnings had some good signs, and the valuation has become more enticing thanks to the sell-off.

credit card exchanging hands

Image source: Getty Images.

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American Express is still growing steadily

Fundamentally, American Express is still performing well. An 11% year-over-year increase in revenue came with a 15% year-over-year boost in net income. Amex has held on to double-digit growth rates for a while, as reflected in its 13.1% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue over the past three years.

CEO Stephen J. Squeri cited "continued momentum across our premium customer base" as a primary catalyst. In an economy where high-income households do most of the spending, Amex is positioned to thrive. Its cards cater to wealthy consumers who are more resilient amid economic uncertainty.

The company is also implementing a growth strategy that has worked well. Part of that playbook has included an extended long-term partnership with the National Basketball Association (NBA) and recently becoming the official payments partner of the National Football League.

Getting in front of sports fans more often can help American Express win over new customers and retain existing ones. The fact that the company extended its NBA partnership is a testament that its current efforts are working.

The valuation is pretty cheap

Continued revenue and net income growth also comes with a cheap valuation, especially if you compare it to other companies that are known for credit cards. American Express trades at a 22 price-to-earnings ratio (P/E), which is considerably lower than Mastercard's and Visa's valuations, which each sit at 31 times earnings.

The businesses are slightly different. American Express issues cards, has a bank, and acts as a merchant acquirer. While Visa and Mastercard have their branding on many credit cards, they don't actually issue credit cards. Banks issue the cards and earn money on any interest or late fees, while Visa or Mastercard act as the payment network. This setup results in Visa and Mastercard having higher profit margins than American Express.

Although these differences exist, the gap should be a little narrower. Visa and Mastercard have three-year revenue CAGRs of 10.9% and 13.9%, respectively. American Express' 13.1% CAGR over that stretch sits firmly in the middle.

Although American Express may not wind up with a 31 P/E, it can experience expansion of its multiple and see marginal gains due to a rising P/E. Second-quarter earnings may serve as a catalyst to reignite the financial stock and help it out of its slump.

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American Express is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Marc Guberti has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends American Express, Mastercard, and Visa. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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